Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Reminds me of last December. Next

Yes, that chart would do 2015 proud!

It's far out and hypothetical to say the least, but once you get Euro heights like that they can be massively hard to shift. I guess that's in the back of everyone's minds.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Reminds me of last December. Next

Stinking Bartlett.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

I have had two snowfalls already and I am 40m asl. Not even the 80's Novembers matched anything like this. Some need to take a step back and see the bigger picture.

you sure they weren't slushfalls?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I have had two snowfalls already and I am 40m asl. Not even the 80's Novembers matched anything like this. Some need to take a step back and see the bigger picture.

Well that's great but not everyone has had snow (me included) and what has already happened has no actual effect on what will happen as we progress through winter. Personally I haven't seen more than 1cm of snow since 2013...that's coming up to 4 years ago.

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Maybe so, but when it results in premature wrist slashing, it can be very tedious reading. Especially when based on the 18z pub run

Members will comment on the run as they see it, those seeking cold love seeing 'stella' runs and are disappointed when the run shows something less desirable,  I really haven't noticed any wrist slashing in here tonight, perhaps some minor gnashing of teeth!   

My view is that the overall picture is highly volatile in the end result, which is a definite positive.  This is a massive difference from last year where we were searching for anything other than Atlantic driven storms right through December.  We may end up with the 4th crap winter in a row (imby), but at least we're in with a good shout of something more notable.

As always, only time will tell.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

you sure they weren't slushfalls?

Lol, snowfall, slushfalls, call them whatever you like, certainly not rainfall

[booferking]

We went from building snowmen to getting the Shrimps on the barbie.

Its only one run folks tomorrow it will look different again chillax.

 

Edited November 20, 2016 by booferking

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Stinking Bartlett.

How did that B word get past the swear filter. Anyway, aside from this run its still been a positive day regarding a cold start to December.

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Maybe so, but when it results in premature wrist slashing, it can be very tedious reading. Especially when based on the 18z pub run

I agree but as you say its very easy to fall into that trap and hope that one FI run can be repeated and repeated in similar ways but in reality, it very rarely does whatever its showing(be it mild or cold set ups). And in fairness, i myself have falling into those traps also although nowadays I don't tend to read into any GFS FI charts as they are pretty pointless.

I can understand why the outputs is a little frustrating but that is how it is sadly, that said we have seen some cold and in the last couple of nights Scotland has recorded some impressive minimums for November and daytime maxes have been rather chilly and some areas have seen snowfall so it has not exactly been all doom and gloom to say the least.

In future runs, I'll be keeping an eye on that developing Scandi high which has kinda popped out of the blue on today runs, IF it can have some sort of link up with the Arctic high then who knows what might happen, that is very unlikely at this stage but not impossible.

[blizzard81]

Too much over reaction tonight based on the 18z gfs op. Over to the 00z runs in the morning.

[pyrotech]

The common trend in the models is that cold around the pole is likely to push Southwards. The models are seeing many methods of attempting this and the good news is that there is more than one way to get it Southwards. We do not have all our eggs in one basket.

Most model runs deep in fi all show cold advancing near the Uk, many just short of the promise.

Even with fairly major changes between some runs 12z 18z and 00z we have seen the cold get close to the Uk

So what i take from these runs is that although where in Northern Hemisphere we get the flow, is not anywhere near understood, there are many opportunities  for the Uk to get close to the action in many different scenarios. So slight alterations and it could become rather interesting. We should not be looking for a single chart at this range but looking for a trend. We can not find a good trend for where heights will be or shortwaves, what we do have thou is a consistent  trend of cold coming close to our shores.

This is not a guarantee of Cold / Snowy weather, however its a lot better than this time last year.

I also see  the snow extent charts look very good over Northwest Europe The coldest night in parts of the Uk in November for many years and we have a low dipole index (lowest since 1962) weak La nina and  getting close to solar minimum.  Those factors alone give Scandi high a very high chance of being a dominant winter feature,

Let the trend be your friend not individual charts from different runs

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

How did that B word get past the swear filter. Anyway, aside from this run its still been a positive day regarding a cold start to December.

I wouldn't say we are making huge backward steps but we aren't moving forward at all.

[karlos1983]

Seriously people, it's not even winter yet! We are in with more than just a chance of decent cold. we have a frustrating few days yet of model watching ahead imo, output will vary. One gfs pub run certainly won't decide a winter that hasn't started yet. 

Edited November 20, 2016 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I wouldn't say we are making huge backward steps but we aren't moving forward at all.

I think we are still moving forward based on the ensemble mean data, hopefully this is a mild outlier.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wouldn't say we are making huge backward steps but we aren't moving forward at all.

Quelle surprise! Same almost every year. Models 5 days plus are useless.

[feb1991blizzard]

Blimey, Scandi high becoming a possibility now according to some GEFS members at 192.

[Cheshire Freeze]

That low across the Atlantic at or around day 8/9 is the common theme on most of the output and it is causing a nuisance i.e preventing Atlantic ridging to reinforce the fledgling Canadian blocking. You couldn't have picked a worse time for this to happen (synoptic progression wise) as in all the crap runs we've seen today, the common factor is this LP flattening the attempted Atlantic ridging...

Edited November 20, 2016 by CreweCold

[Ventnor Viking]

I'm not getting caught up in the individual model runs at the moment - this really is an usual situation we are going through with regards to the stratosphere, the sea temps and the solar activity.

I don't think I've ever seen a strat warming start so early on, technically everything should be cooling right down now.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stratosphere;sess=

The sea and ocean temps have changed and have been changing recently,especially the pacific and north pacific. Looking back through I cant match a year with anything similar.

Solar activity continues to decline on a weekly basis (with the very occasional sun spot appearing but overall very week).

 

The latest image being very quiet for sun spot numbers!

My opinion is that the models cant get to grips with all these changes and the variances are very different to anything I've seen. My gut tells me that very soon we will see something very interesting appear out of the blue at shortish range and catch many of us out!  

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

hmmm'

certainly not great viewing from a cold perspective. even the waa' @eastern seaboard USA which not so long ago was looking to be our friend' is now neither friend or foe.

given current modeling' its impact is non worthy...However we must remember ONCE AGAIN' hemisphercaly' things look primedfor something..and perhaps more importantly raises the question of model divergence/miss-interpretation. 

will be many more obstacles and swings to come....and optimism still rains supreme.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Look at the spread!!!!

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Blimey, Scandi high becoming a possibility now according to some GEFS members at 192.

Very much so there are quite a few in there more so than a greeny canadian.

[pyrotech]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That low across the Atlantic at or around day 8/9 is the common theme on most of the output and it is causing a nuisance i.e preventing Atlantic ridging to reinforce the fledgling Canadian blocking. You couldn't have picked a worse time for this to happen (synoptic progression wise) as in all the crap runs we've seen today, the common factor is this LP flattening the attempted Atlantic ridging...

Crew, i agree thats a feature that keeps being forecast, however i still see a great cold possibility with that, , It would most likely become stationary between Greenland and Iceland and then slip South over the Uk bringing a Cold northerly down West Uk and spreading Eastwards, I suspect a Negative NAO by then and we are talking T20 days. So even that can still bring promise. There are just many opportunities here and although non may actually bring the jam, the fact we have opportunities this year is at least a positive

IMHO

[Zakos]

34 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Members will comment on the run as they see it, those seeking cold love seeing 'stella' runs and are disappointed when the run shows something less desirable,  I really haven't noticed any wrist slashing in here tonight, perhaps some minor gnashing of teeth!   

My view is that the overall picture is highly volatile in the end result, which is a definite positive.  This is a massive difference from last year where we were searching for anything other than Atlantic driven storms right through December.  We may end up with the 4th crap winter in a row (imby), but at least we're in with a good shout of something more notable.

As always, only time will tell.

Fully agree!

Im quite happy with any weather in winter that doesnt involve mild and wet south westerlies, though i must say i do have a preference for falling snow.

Still, Im enjoying the continuation of this remarkably blocked autumn to be honest. 

As you said, I doubt at any point in early winter last year we had ensemble means with anywhere near as much potential as the above charts. 

Yes they are at day 10, but in my opinion they've been getting progressively more conducive for cold spell for days now. Also,the next attempt at retrogression appears to be slowly creeping in to the reliable timeframe, hopefully it does not get pushed back this time.

At the very least,the jet stream looks to remain weakened and southerly tracking, and in my opinion a noteable cold spell as we head into winter remains a plausible possibility.

Hopefully the block, if sets up in a favourable position, will be as stubborn to decay as it was to retrogress!

Edited November 20, 2016 by Zakos

[Man With Beard]

So the observation made a week or so ago about heights on our side of the pole is coming to pass ... Just that they are somehow ending up in a place that won't send cold our way.

Next step then - looks very likely that Canada will become the next location for blocking in the next 7-10 days. Again, this is not bad for the UK at all as it promotes more cold on the western edge of future low pressure systems. Certainly the GEFS clusters suggest that as a possibility between D10 and D15. However, no strong enough signal to use more than the "possible" word.

Still looking like hard work getting the cold to us even though hemispherically the chance still exists!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, booferking said:

Very much so there are quite a few in there more so than a greeny canadian.

yes, they're collapsing now though according to mean with the trough about to become the dominant scandi feature.