Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[phil nw.]

A recent post has been moved to here

Please use that thread for snow reports/pics as we only want Model output views in here.Thanks all.

[bluearmy]

Extended eps aren't consolidating on the low anomoly ( though broadly the same set up as ore ions) and a tad concerned that the low anomolys to our south are beginning to whither away somewhat. I consider those to be an essential part of getting proper winter across the uk. 

[feb1991blizzard]

On a more positive note, another belter coming up on the GFS, yes though a lot of op runs have struggled to get the really frigid air down in Northerlies, perhaps that's because the heights are higher across the channel so acting as a stopper (GFS recent run did this, think it was last nights 18z).

[weatherguy]

Quite.  Only so long the UK can keep missing the cold with such an amplified NH profile. 

+222 GFS 18z here 

Note the favourable exit of energy out of the eastern seaboard 

Again, it's FI, and I know personally it's getting fatiguing constantly watching at this sort of range, but something's gotta give eventually. 

Edited November 20, 2016 by weatherguy

[Ali1977]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps aren't consolidating on the low anomoly ( though broadly the same set up as ore ions) and a tad concerned that the low anomolys to our south are beginning to whither away somewhat. I consider those to be an essential part of getting proper winter across the uk. 

I agree that for decent Easterly feeds lows in the med are a key ingredient , not so sure on blasts from the North though!! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Remarkable run to run consistency from 12z, can that shortwave be ejected from the E Canada trough and be absorbed  cleanly by the trough to the S Greenland troughing like on the 12z

[northwestsnow]

Heights to our south and east are the new hurdle! Just as  blue alluded too....

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z wakes up following a benign slumber and it should get interesting from here, all eyes north west.

[bluearmy]

Not sure this run is going the right way at day 10 as Greenland low heights may be heading the wrong way to bring the cold to nw Europe 

actually the problem is the depression in the nw Atlantic that prevents the Azores from retrogressing to Canada 

Edited November 20, 2016 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure this run is going the right way at day 10 as Greenland low heights may be heading the wrong way to bring the cold to nw Europe 

I think we will still get the Northerly (of some description) but way too messy to have any confidence that it will verify much like that at all.

 

EDIT : Oh no we wont!!

Edited November 20, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure this run is going the right way at day 10 as Greenland low heights may be heading the wrong way to bring the cold to nw Europe 

Yup, that low below Greenland messing this up a bit, then it goes totally pear shaped . Typical!! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure this run is going the right way at day 10 as Greenland low heights may be heading the wrong way to bring the cold to nw Europe 

I feel the modelling has been going the 'wrong way' for the best part of a week now. It wasn't s long ago that we had all the medium and longer range products going for a near unanimous pressure rise just to our NW very end of November into December. I suppose, in a way, that signal is still there but what has changed (or beginning to be firmed up) is that the UK may well miss out on the cold goodies with far too many complications flying around the N Atlantic sector.

The 18z GFS run is in that group of ensembles I mentioned earlier that were far from stellar

Edited November 20, 2016 by CreweCold

[Frosty.]

Surely that bottled up frigid arctic air will be uncorked during low res...perhaps not

Edited November 20, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ice Day]

This run is doing everything in its power to keep the cold away from the UK.  It's really incredible on a micro scale how much this seems to happen. The heights to our NW have disappeared and we're left in a no mans land.  Pah, it's only the 18z so doesn't count does it!!!!

[blizzard81]

Too much analysing of gfs operational runs in here tonight to be honest. I know it's tempting to fall into that trap but always best not to

[Geordiesnow]

Do find it a little amusing I am seeing the infamous day 10 type posts popping up in this thread, i am sure I have seen those type of posts 10 days ago also!

Whilst the lower resolution of the GFS may offer something interesting, it got to be said we don't seem all that much closer to any cold/snowy set ups but the slight trend we may see a weak Scandi high developing is interesting. It things like that which could make any cold air arrive sooner but the general trend does seem to be any weak Scandi high will topple and low pressure will remain stubborn across Southern Greenland.

High pressure look set to control our weather for the foreseeable but I think fog/frost won't be too big of a issue apart from intially as some cold air does topple into the high but then the air quickly warms, we get an easterly wind for most parts of the country and the high will become a cloudy one. I think the words anticyclone doom will become more of a feature by the end of the week.

If the high drifts just to the North and we get more of a SE'ly then we may see clearer skies again like the ECM shows.

I also got to say there is far too much obession in GFS FI charts, those runs after 240 hours are a lower resolution, are often showing unlikely set ups and the timerange is too far away. Sometimes its better too see things popping up unexpectedly in the medium range like the potential for a Scandi high for example. Okay, the models showing it won't last long and it will topple however this could change with other factors perhaps coming into play.

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure this run is going the right way at day 10 as Greenland low heights may be heading the wrong way to bring the cold to nw Europe 

actually the problem is the depression in the nw Atlantic that prevents the Azores from retrogressing to Canada 

If I'm reading you correctly ba that depression is the trough/energy from the eastern seaboard which has been causing the various interpretations as it engages the HP/warmer air. Then it phases in with the energy emitted from Canada to arrive here. It's all a variation on a theme.

 

Edited November 20, 2016 by knocker

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Too much analysing of gfs operational runs in here tonight to be honest. I know it's tempting to fall into that trap but always best not to

Maybe so, but this is the 'Mod Discussion Thread'!  Wouldn't be much of a thread if we didn't discuss the output.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Too much analysing of gfs operational runs in here tonight to be honest. I know it's tempting to fall into that trap but always best not to

We hear this same line trotted out every year though....then we end up at the end of February with most of lowland UK still waiting for a snowfall. Happens far too often. Seasons are far shorter than people think. 

I don't care about patience, I want some snowfall ASAP from now on in then the rest of winter can do as it pleases.

[nick sussex]

Its like pulling teeth. A painfully slow process to get to anything interesting and the Azores high causing more problems. The problem really is although we might get that Canadian high pressure theres no proper blocking far enough east to force the pattern sufficiently se. Overall the GFS 18hrs run is a lesson in frustration and the whole route to cold looks very complicated. All down to the fact that in recent winters theres more chance of seeing an alien than a proper Greenland high.

 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Maybe so, but this is the 'Mod Discussion Thread'!  Wouldn't be much of a thread if we didn't discuss the output.

Maybe so, but when it results in premature wrist slashing, it can be very tedious reading. Especially when based on the 18z pub run

Edited November 20, 2016 by blizzard81

[Ali1977]

Latest GEM and JMA look very good , as did the last GFS and ECM...

over to tomorrow!!

 

[Frosty.]

Reminds me of last December. Next

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We hear this same line trotted out every year though....then we end up at the end of February with most of lowland UK still waiting for a snowfall. Happens far too often. Seasons are far shorter than people think. 

I don't care about patience, I want some snowfall ASAP from now on in then the rest of winter can do as it pleases.

I have had two snowfalls already and I am 40m asl. Not even the 80's Novembers matched anything like this. Some need to take a step back and see the bigger picture.

[nick sussex]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Maybe so, but when it results in premature wrist slashing. it can be very tedious reading. Especially when based on the 18z pub run

This thread wouldn't be the same without an outpouring of grief! I think the frustration is that many are beginning to feel that for all the good background signals the outputs are reluctant to deliver anything.