Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, Zakos said:

 

I thought this was the case

Just seemed odd to me how quickly the siberian high seemingly vanishes.            .   .     

Ah I see what you are getting at. From where I'm sitting the pattern (Atlantic ridge and trough) revolve clockwise from T192 which leaves the ridge orientated SW/NE to the north west  of Scotland by T252 whilst at the same time the east European HP moves east and decays.

Edited November 15, 2016 by knocker

[tight isobar]

Still early days via 12 ecm...but could go mirror image of its gfs 12z cousin!!!..

Looks good..upstream also at this point

[weatherguy]

Hey guys! Time for me to end my sabbatical I think...Strat signs firming up on a truly sickly looking vortex, starting the winter from a very favourable point teleconnections-wise, and there's been a sustained push towards seeing this in the troposphere.  After a few years of meh, things could get very interesting over the next few weeks 

 

PS - 2010 repeat would be wonderful, but just look at my ava if anyone needed a reminder of just how obscenely perfect those synoptics were! 

Edited November 15, 2016 by weatherguy

[feb1991blizzard]

Low too far North at 120 on ECM, not a good run so far but not sure that will affect the outcome too much down the line.

[Zakos]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ah I see what you are getting at. From where I'm sitting the pattern (Atlantic ridge and trough) revolve clockwise from T192 which leaves the ridge orientated SW/NE to the north west  of Scotland by T252 whilst at the same time the east European HP moves east and decays.

Ah right I see now, thankyou!  

[Bristawl Si]

22 minutes ago, Grimers said:

Trying to keep up with this thread is incredibly tough, but I'm loving some of the output, especially from the GFS model! If the GFS model is correct, then this Winter could be a repeat of 2010-11!

With LPs threatening to head south i'm more inclined to see another 'December 1981' shaping up. Maybe it's my age showing.

[tight isobar]

However' the yawn is on at western seaboard. ..and waa is applying there...and also begins exactin at Greenland. ..we shall see??!!

[Gael_Force]

13 minutes ago, Zakos said:

I thought this was the case

Just seemed odd to me how quickly the siberian high seemingly vanishes.      

Is this not just a response to the strat vortex repositioning deeper into eastern Siberia. There is almost, if not quite, a reversal forecast. Another chance for the GIF as it shows the circulation going anti clockwise round where the core of the vortex is forecast to be

     

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

However' the yawn is on at western seaboard. ..and waa is applying there...and also begins exactin at Greenland. ..we shall see??!!

Better angle of WAA at day 5 than was showing on the 0z...by a fair margin.

Although by day 6, maybe not...

Nick I think we could have a potential unfolding drama on our hands!

When compared to the GFS at the same timeframe, the differences are stark

Edited November 15, 2016 by CreweCold

[nick sussex]

The stand off continues between the ECM versus the GFS/UKMO. No inland runner low in the ne USA, flatter so its whether the ECM at T168hrs can clutch victory from the jaws of defeat.

[tight isobar]

Ecm versus gfs 12z..

@144 hrs

[David Morse]

3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Is this not just a response to the strat vortex repositioning deeper into eastern Siberia. There is almost, if not quite, a reversal forecast. Another chance for the GIF as it shows the circulation going anti clockwise round where the core of the vortex is forecast to be

     

Isn't this all the response from the previous Strat. disruption about 12 days ago?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The stand off continues between the ECM versus the GFS/UKMO. No inland runner low in the ne USA, flatter so its whether the ECM at T168hrs can clutch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Why can we never just have some form of consensus one way or the other over these things...there's always something to overcome Nick!

[Gael_Force]

5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

With LPs threatening to head south i'm more inclined to see another 'December 1981' shaping up. Maybe it's my age showing.

[Met4Cast]

The last cold spell the ECM consistently modelled a continuation of the cold whilst GFS/UKMO said no. ECM was wrong. 

Could be that it's just late to the party again. Solid GEFS mean

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The stand off continues between the ECM versus the GFS/UKMO. No inland runner low in the ne USA, flatter so its whether the ECM at T168hrs can clutch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Why the panic nick? I don't see whichever solution becomes the mid term favourite affecting what happens in two weeks. the 00z runs had a decent undercutting atlantic by day 10 (op and para)

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Why can we never just have some form of consensus one way or the other over these things...there's always something to overcome Nick!

True, theres always some drama as soon as the models sniff something that might look interesting. I'll see what the US state forecasts think later because theres a chasm between what the GFS/UKMO think and the ECM/GEM.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, nick sussex said:

True, theres always some drama as soon as the models sniff something that might look interesting. I'll see what the US state forecasts think later because theres a chasm between what the GFS/UKMO think and the ECM/GEM.

Well if the GFS is wrong it's going to flip pretty much an entire ensemble suite in the GEFS....I'd like to say I haven't seen that happen before- but I have!

[Mucka]

Hmmm GEM, ECM V UKMO, GFS that is an unusual split.

 

How about JMA?

Keeps the low well to the South, possible snow on leading edge from that.

 

And goes somewhere in the middle ground with the ridge, could be better.

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Why the panic nick? I don't see whichever solution becomes the mid term favourite affecting what happens in two weeks. the 00z runs had a decent undercutting atlantic by day 10 (op and para)

Have you just arrived from Mars? lol  If it can wrong it does in the UK in terms of cold. Differences at the start may well end up changing that, the ECM just employed some dodgy builders to finish off the foundations. I'll defer to your confidence for the timebeing, no panic yet but NW helpline operatives are on stand by!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Why the panic nick? I don't see whichever solution becomes the mid term favourite affecting what happens in two weeks. the 00z runs had a decent undercutting atlantic by day 10 (op and para)

I see your point and I wouldn't be in the slightest bit concerned if the ECM suite was similar to the GEFS suite and gather it supports it to some extent but have heard conflicting views, 1 or 2 rogue ECM op's V consistent Ensembles and I would back the latter but its difficult when you cant see all the data.

[Banbury]

LOL ECM decides to develop a deep LP over Iceland , that wasn't there before .

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean turns into an absolute peach with height rises to the NW, high pressure in mid atlantic acting as a block and a negative tilted scandi trough with a cold Nly / NEly airflow for the uk, the mean has been supporting this evolution since yesterday and sounds similar to what GloSea5 must be indicating judging by the MO updates.Blocked and cold by late Nov / early Dec..not a mild swly zephyr in sight!

Edited November 15, 2016 by Frosty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Why the panic nick? I don't see whichever solution becomes the mid term favourite affecting what happens in two weeks. the 00z runs had a decent undercutting atlantic by day 10 (op and para)

Because the ECM output continues to look worse and worse. Not easy to see how we get cold from there at day 8 (in an easy fashion)..which leaves 5/6 days until that 2 week timeframe... We're a gnats whisker of a shallow trough away from a pretty big +NAO at day 8.

This even more true with the GEM which was, quite frankly, hideous and quite possible if we don't get that initial amplification and drive of WAA northwards. I think you may be underestimating the importance of that in the overall progression. 

Edited November 15, 2016 by CreweCold

[Banbury]

Not where we want the HP