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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
3 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

prectypeuktopo.png

Very similar position and time frame to the snow chart for last ECM run.

A lot more runs needed to firm up but just thought I'd post as there was a comment about no snow on the ECM charts.

9c7f4aa1cb7ad42d15566f5154c0c8ec.png

Chart publically available from Wunderground though it is a bit of a convoluted process to get there.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
15 minutes ago, knocker said:

I disagree. Up until T288 the 850mb wind streams show a closed circulation over the UK and as this slowly subsides then the ridge begins to come into play and a westerly component results. I'm merely saying as it is and not what I would expect. And yes I appreciate those charts shouldn't be posted here but it is sometimes the quickest way to move on when people start nit picking as many are want to do.

we'll agree to disagree then but I see little evidence in the London eps graph of a gentle sou'wester 

 

Edited by Nick L
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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Monday 21st

Could be some impressive totals for NI and Galloway to Kielder as the front moves North.

prectypeuktopo.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean is looking encouraging for coldies as we approach the beginning of the new meteorological winter with a trough setting up to the NE and a generally Nly / NEly airflow for the uk..cold:D

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The battle between two highs with the UK stuck in between. And then some drama with development of shortwaves running into the UK with the models chopping and changing as to the depth and track of these.

I think its clear that the Russian high is doing its best to derail a smoother transition to something colder, its poorly orientated and is acting to funnel lots of mild air nw into Scandi and Western Russia. We want rid of it as soon as possible as it simply locks in the troughing too far west, with that in mind any eastwards corrections in the outputs should be welcomed.

In terms of any possible snow regarding shortwaves this is up in the air and really only reserved for the highest ground at the moment.

Upstream there are still uncertainties with low pressure in the east/ne USA this impacts the amplitude of any high to the west/nw of the UK so that's something else to factor in.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I'm actually slightly concerned by the CFS v2 daily runs at the moment. For the past two days worth of runs, the N blocking signature has completely crumbled for Dec and Jan, replaced with something utterly more average. You can't even claim run to run variation on this because up until a couple of days ago it was resolute with the blocking signature for December. I'd expect to see the blocking ebb away from the means on the NOAA site over the next couple of days given what I've seen.

I'm not saying it's the death knell for December cold but it's something to be wary of at least.

cfs-4-12-2016.png?12

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Not sure I would agree with you there Nick. It is a crucial part in helping to bring the polar vortex down. Short term pain, long term gain and all that..

Unfortunately what seems to happen in the UK is short term pain for long term pain! The problem is building foundations for the future in terms of those colder patterns that most of the forum want to see doesn't include that extra current unforeseen variable popping up. So what looks like a strong foundation ends up being let down by something that we haven't yet factored in. Personally I'm happy to take my chances with the Russian high getting off the scene sooner rather than later.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Personally I think people are getting a bit too excited. Ian's posts from last night where talking about the start of December, which is still 2 weeks away, as everyone knows a lot can change in that period of time. I've seen some very great looking charts from the GFS, but they are all in FI! and it never looks particularly cold for the UK. So, as always until these great looking charts get into the reliable timeframe I think people should temper their excitement. The background signals do look great, but that doesn't gurantee cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
3 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

Personally I think people are getting a bit too excited. Ian's posts from last night where talking about the start of December, which is still 2 weeks away, as everyone knows a lot can change in that period of time. I've seen some very great looking charts from the GFS, but they are all in FI! and it never looks particularly cold for the UK. So, as always until these great looking charts get into the reliable timeframe I think people should temper their excitement. The background signals do look great, but that doesn't gurantee cold.

I agree, that's why I'm more interested in what the GFS model and ECMWF model are showing for Sunday and Monday rather than what could happen in FI. There's no point in getting excited for what might not happen...

Edited by Grimers
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unfortunately what seems to happen in the UK is short term pain for long term pain! 

I'm cautiously optimistic whereas this time last year we were staring into a mild abyss..The GEFS mean still looks very encouraging for those of us of a cold disposition. :- )

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm actually slightly concerned by the CFS v2 daily runs at the moment. For the past two days worth of runs, the N blocking signature has completely crumbled for Dec and Jan, replaced with something utterly more average. You can't even claim run to run variation on this because up until a couple of days ago it was resolute with the blocking signature for December. I'd expect to see the blocking ebb away from the means on the NOAA site over the next couple of days given what I've seen.

I'm not saying it's the death knell for December cold but it's something to be wary of at least.

CC - I personally don't believe much beyond 2 weeks on the CFS, although trends are still worth noting and you're correct the signals have calmed down over the last few regards blocking in the NH.  I think anything in Dec is probably very skewed at the minute with the huge differences within medium term. The strat is just going from strength to strength with the signal for a particularly blocked Dec. Solar winds/Strat warming/No PV, Warm Arctic etc....they all point one way - blocked!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm actually slightly concerned by the CFS v2 daily runs at the moment. For the past two days worth of runs, the N blocking signature has completely crumbled for Dec and Jan, replaced with something utterly more average. You can't even claim run to run variation on this because up until a couple of days ago it was resolute with the blocking signature for December. I'd expect to see the blocking ebb away from the means on the NOAA site over the next couple of days given what I've seen.

I'm not saying it's the death knell for December cold but it's something to be wary of at least.

cfs-4-12-2016.png?12

Either yesterday or the day before (getting old), I was browsing through the CFSv2 and the second half of December was a snow fest for the UK. It's not a model I take overly seriously, though, but in fairness at least it puts itself out there with the long term stuff :-)

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, jvenge said:

Either yesterday or the day before (getting old), I was browsing through the CFSv2 and the second half of December was a snow fest for the UK. It's not a model I take overly seriously, though, but in fairness at least it puts itself out there with the long term stuff :-)

Gavsweathervideo did an Xmas forecast yesterday on the lastest CFSV2, correct it was a proper snowfest.  

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
9 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Either yesterday or the day before (getting old), I was browsing through the CFSv2 and the second half of December was a snow fest for the UK. It's not a model I take overly seriously, though, but in fairness at least it puts itself out there with the long term stuff :-)

If there is an exceptionally strong signal it will run with it...it did brilliantly during the March-April 2013 spell. Had it nailed weeks before (and remained steady right up until the event).

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm optimistic aswell but if theres a decent chance of something developing within the next two weeks I'd grab that and say bank, rather than trying to turn a 4 part series entitled the Search for Cold into the tv version of War and Peace.

My attitude is grab it while you can, we've been here before with promises of a 3 star Michelin meal only to be told later that we've got a table booked at Little Chef!

I agree Nick, at least the background signals are much improved from last year's horror story with signs of blocking in december and into January too, as long as we have GloSea5 on our side, I'm cautiously optimistic.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
16 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 12z mean does show support for a milder Southerly flow next week, similar to the Gem 12z..time for a slice of humble pie:shok::D

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21_240_850tmp.png

 
 
 
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
16 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 12z mean does show support for a milder Southerly flow next week, similar to the Gem 12z..time for a slice of humble pie:shok::D

21_192_850tmp.png

21_216_850tmp.png

21_240_850tmp.png

 
 
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
2 hours ago, fergieweather said:

automatically equating to *profound* cold 

I guess some folk just cheery pick the model output they desire ?

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