Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Nouska]

2 hours ago, Zakos said:

This is probably a very good example of the points being raised. No discernible jet over the UK but look at the panel GEFS for same time frame.

A jet streak in every one but a cancelling out process results in nothing showing.

The very fact we see this - an indication of extreme forecast meridionality with many solutions on offer.

Climatology should have a raging jet stream coming off some sector of the US - the fact it doesn't, says all you need to know about difficulties in resolving the outcome.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, after the next few days of mild weather, temps slide below average and stay that way for the most part, especially across the north where it looks generally cold. It's also a trough dominated outlook so expect showers and longer spells of rain, and expect snow at times on northern hills / low ground from time to time in the far north and occasionally down to modest hills in southern uk. Night frosts are set to return at times following the early mild interlude, and although we are likely to have strong winds at times, there would also be spells of quiet weather with fog, some of it freezing as recently, especially further south.

Edited November 13, 2016 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

If you listen carefully you can hear the PV singing, "Wish me luck as you wave me goodbye..."

Brings a tear to the eye (of joy )

[nick sussex]

Will the GFS 12hrs run take a shortwave se rather than eject the low over western Greenland. This would make a big difference going forward.

[Ali1977]

Even by Friday we see quite big differences between runs, the 12z has much better heights in Greenland, at the minute this means nothing but maybe this will help with a quicker blocking solution towards day 10 once the second low sweeps SE. The NH in general looks slight more blocky on this run including more WAA north of Alaska, we shall see!!

bottom image the latest.

Edited November 13, 2016 by Ali1977

[Rocheydub]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

If you listen carefully you can hear the PV singing, "Wish me luck as you wave me goodbye..."

Brings a tear to the eye (of joy )

The vortex resembling the dodo bird, in both looks and existence!

[nick sussex]

Shame the GFS after holding back the main low eventually pushes that se so we don't see any trough disruption, it looks like it will be the longwinded route to anything more interesting unless the Euros do something different.

Edited November 13, 2016 by nick sussex

[lorenzo]

That Siberian High is a monster on this run - cranking in at 1065hPa, will there be a 1070 across the ens or is this a sign of the GFS op being progressive..

Strat providing some clues for the troughing deep into Europe, greenland highs surely just around the corner now...

 

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Shame the GFS after holding back the main low eventually pushes that se so we don't see any trough disruption, it looks like it will be the longwinded route to anything more interesting unless the Euros do something different.

Give it time nick i reckon it will disrupt!!gfs just being stubborn maybe!!looked better than the 06z earlier on aswell!!

[Mucka]

UKMO very impressive re polar heights.

[Eskimo]

Looking at the PV like...

[Iceaxecrampon]

12Z

17th Nov still on the cards - more widespread on the 18th  at sink from NW  - Ok 30% prob for mid England but potential.

At least Cumbria hopefully will be spared its annual floods this year with this setup.

Hope it lasts.

Edited November 13, 2016 by Iceaxecrampon

[Mucka]

At the risk of sounding anthropomorphic, I hope ECM is a little less begrudging in developing blocking.

[ITSY]

12Z does eventually show signs of retrogression - albeit confined to the final two frames. Lets be fair though, this back and forth should expected throughout this week - IF has repeatedly said as much. At this point, ensemble trends and cross model operational trends are more important than individual runs. The models aren't yet even showing December. (Having said that, if I'm saying the same point in a week and two weeks' time, I'll start to become less enthusiastic about what is to come) 

[Tim Bland]

Lots of optimism around for wintry weather to take hold soon but very little in the models to get excited about yet. This day last year we had this in the reliable time frame ....

Edited November 13, 2016 by Tim Bland

[bobbydog]

37 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Lots of optimism around for wintry weather to take hold soon but very little in the models to get excited about yet. This day last year we had this in the reliable time frame ....

We might have said the same thing 54 years ago but hey-ho,

12z

 

1962

Edited November 13, 2016 by bobbydog
Can't add up lol

[fromey]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Lots of optimism around for wintry weather to take hold soon but very little in the models to get excited about yet. This day last year we had this in the reliable time frame ....

a lot what i keep hearing is the background signals are different to last year, i was going to post a northern hemisphere chart for last year for comparison but it wont upload, it would be good if someone could upload last years and this year to look at   

 

fromey

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

I have to say. I'm absolutely gobsmacked by the state of the northern hemisphere this year. It's been a very very long time since iv saw a jet stream that doesn't actually exist. 2010 I think was the last time I saw that in winter. Just remarkable. 

Great for winter weather for us snow loving freaks lol but really quite worrying to see such an abnormal 3 wave pattern dominating the hemisphere at a time when the vortex and jet stream should be rampant. 

Folk know my thoughts and what I think is coming.  This to me is LIA footprint showing, with this year into next the tipping point. That jetstream is like the PV......smacked.   

Interesting thing.  We have had 26 spotlesss days this year, the most since 2010 when we had 51. Cycle 24 was weak and we are leaving it.  25 anticipated to be even lower and 26.....well we'll see.  But that is for me the way we head....very interesting times

Edited November 13, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ArHu3]

On 11/5/2016 at 20:42, northwestsnow said:

3 minutes ago, fromey said:

a lot what i keep hearing is the background signals are different to last year, i was going to post a northern hemisphere chart for last year for comparison but it wont upload, it would be good if someone could upload last years and this year to look at   

 

fromey

better to compare to nov 2014, that looked quite promissing

[Yarmy]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Lots of optimism around for wintry weather to take hold soon but very little in the models to get excited about yet. This day last year we had this in the reliable time frame ....

T240 reliable? 

I do remember that though, as both the 0z and 12z had it.

It was but a fleeting dream 24 hours later though: another example of the ECM op over-amplifying at the end of its run.

[gottolovethisweather]

26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Lots of optimism around for wintry weather to take hold soon but very little in the models to get excited about yet. This day last year we had this in the reliable time frame ....

 

 

 

 

 

 

As I've said before, ten days is a long time in Meteorology but who knows, by the 23rd of November in 2016, we could be on the seventh day of the upcoming cold spell. Incidentally, before then, the uninitiated might be wondering what all the fuss is about? With the next couple of days seeing Maximum Temperatures nudging the low 60s Fahrenheit in parts and the odd night with minimums no lower than the mid-50s. After that, forget the warmth for a wee while.

Edited November 13, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Iceaxecrampon]

10 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

We might have said the same thing 64 years ago but hey-ho,

12z

1962

Sorry for OT but lordy -  I was just 4 days old  - parents struggled in the months to come.

 

edit:54 years ago - I hope

Edited November 13, 2016 by Iceaxecrampon

[born to be wild]

13 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

We might have said the same thing 64 years ago but hey-ho,

12z

1962

54 years ?

[Ali1977]

Lots of blocking in the ENS by day 10, looking beyond day 8 for the outcome is probably not a wise move - the Op hasn't much support in FI but obviously that doesn't write it off.

some of the best FI charts I've seen for a long time though.

Edited November 13, 2016 by Ali1977

[nick sussex]

I suppose the frustrating thing about the outputs so far is that you've got a PV that's not really interested in setting up in its normal position but yet the models aren't really doing anything to move towards a colder outlook.

The issue at the moment is that low which drops down lands in precisely the area we don't want and then spends days filling. You either want this low much further east or west.

As it stands where it ends up means it will be like watching paint dry before we can move to something more profitable in terms of cold.