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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Something is clearly distracting folks ..............  don't panic, he can't affect the AO!

It's certainly trending negative towards the month end.....

image.gif

Edited by Paul_1978
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted (edited)

Oh seriously! Not even the sanctuary of the model thread is safe from politics bull crap. Take it offline seriously :wallbash:

ecm looking promising still toward final 3rd November. 

 

IMG_3584.PNG

Edited by karlos1983
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh seriously! Not even the sanctuary of the model thread is safe from politics bull crap. Take it offline seriously :wallbash:

ecm looking promising still toward final 3rd November. 

 

IMG_3584.PNG

Similar to its last few runs looking at that - FI way before day 10 at the minute I think!!

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh seriously! Not even the sanctuary of the model thread is safe from politics bull crap. Take it offline seriously :wallbash:

ecm looking promising still toward final 3rd November. 

 

IMG_3584.PNG

I thought so too. Still an interesting hemispherical pattern and that looks like a big blob of vortex migrating east. Any suggestions on where the charts would go after day 10?

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

Im looking at the ecm0z and seeing room for cautious optimism,we see at 96 the PV setting up shop near Greenland-

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html

And by da 10-

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

The PV has vacated Greenland area.

Jet is sinking south, can it dig far enough south ?

Edited by northwestsnow
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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Author
Posted

Model discussion only please all.Some off topic post have been removed.

Thank you.

 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Certainly similarities from the ECM to its mean

ECH1-240 (1).gifEDH1-240.gif

GFS 00z shows the Strat coming under renewed pressure later in the run, 

gfsnh-10-384 (1).png

Early Winter cold prospects still looking good!!

Edited by karlos1983
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

In another news ... the AO is still looking to dip negative in the medium range as cross polar height rises gain hold. Closer to home, 500mb polar vortex moves across Greenland bringing us into a Wly/NWly regime, but the mid-tropospheric vortex is on the move rather than sticking there like a limpet. On route to Scandi? EPS and GEFS seem to hint at this, but no clear signal how long this will take, get this vortex to the NE and it may allow height rises to the west and NW toward Greenland - this looks the most likely route for arctic cold to return (from the N) for now.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_fh72-240.gif

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted (edited)

If we can get the jet stream to track a little further South then we can tap into this Arctic air quicker....

 

It gets further South in the run as seen below.

gfsnh-5-198.png

gfsnh-5-240.png

gfsnh-5-300.png

Edited by booferking
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, vase1234 said:

What's the uppers in that Westerly flow off the Atlantic? The PV needs to move a lot more to favour the UK in some kind of Notherly flow.

Not great initially, but that's not a westerly flow. :pardon:

As already alluded too, the PV is headed for Scandi most likely. 

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not great initially, but that's not a westerly flow. :pardon:

As already alluded too, the PV is headed for Scandi most likely. 

 

Agreed, the Ecm 00z ens mean shows polar air so it wouldn't be mild and if the trough keeps pushing east it would veer the flow towards arctic maritime, in fact this chart shows the air originating in the arctic and just modified slightly be the atlantic influence.

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, vase1234 said:

Which direction is the flow?

Westerly with potential to go Nw'ly. You can follow the jet with ease straight through UK up across into S Scandi/Northernmost Europe

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted
5 minutes ago, vase1234 said:

Thanks Crewe, I thought it was a westerly flow @karlos1983

I think you know exactly what I mean vase, why don'y you find a chart and have something subjective to say? Or is that not what you are in here for....

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vase1234 Rookie

vase1234

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think you know exactly what I mean vase, why don'y you find a chart and have something subjective to say? Or is that not what you are in here for....

I said the flow was westerly on the chart, you disagreed. Crewe confirmed it was westerly.......I only asked to confirm I was reading the chart correctly. Not sure what your post is relating to, I only asked as I'm not expert with the charts.

So I guess I can't asked a question then or maybe disagree. 

Edited by vase1234
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, vase1234 said:

I said the flow was westerly on the chart, you disagreed. Crewe confirmed it was westerly.......I only asked to confirm I was reading the chart correctly. Not sure what your post is relating to, I only asked as I'm not expert with the charts.

Yes it's entirely possible to have a broadly westerly 'flow' across the UK which is of Polar Maritime origin

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Kind of unsure how this is all going to play out now for the rest of November, from a coldies POV there is good and bad, the good is that the PV is on the move , the bad is that pressure remains high across E/SE Europe which could spell a very disturbed/wet spell of weather for the UK.

This is why i was really hoping the scandy block would win out this week...

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, vase1234 said:

I said the flow was westerly on the chart, you disagreed. Crewe confirmed it was westerly.......I only asked to confirm I was reading the chart correctly. Not sure what your post is relating to, I only asked as I'm not expert with the charts.

So I guess I can't asked a question then or maybe disagree. 

Fine, so technically the flow is Westerly, but if you look at the origin, it is not westerly.

The next few days are all about seeing how the pattern is going to unfold after mid month, where the PV decides to settle and any blocking sets up. 

It's going to be a fascinating few weeks of model watching, so IF you are learning, this is a good time to read all of the posts, watch all of the models and then you will eventually get to a point where you will draw your own conclusions as to what may happen.

I do not proclaim to be an expert at all, I just love the weather, really enjoy this Forum and learning every single day!

Enjoy. PEACE!

PS. you should always feel free to ask questions, you will find that everyone will be willing to answer them and give you their view, including myself. But don't just one line someone, that's my advice, take it or leave it.

Edited by karlos1983
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

06z GFS keeps the heating on in the Strat.

That's now becoming a bit more consistent. Anyone know what the ECM is showing? 

Cheers 

gfsnh-10-384 (2).png

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is it just me or are all these great strat charts at T+384?

I know what you mean, but the warming actually starts earlier and it has been hinted that the strat could come under renewed pressure by months end, so it does tie in, rather than just "oh look the strat is warming at +384" like last year, lets hope it comes off.

One to watch with cautious optimism perhaps...

Edited by karlos1983
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