Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

So the mild model has flipped to cold for Dec....Scandy high anyone 

One day later, the slider scenario is reinforced. Precip signal also indicates busy low activity far enough east to feed cold into UK though not yet showing on the temp chart.

 

Edited November 8, 2016 by Gael_Force

[Mucka]

Just now, swfc said:

low exiting esb scuppers the heights pushing north on the 12z.suck it and see i guess!!!

Quite different to some previous runs, I prefer GEM's take on things

We can expect a fair bit of variation in 10 day charts but I would prefer not to see a repeat of the GFS 12z.

[Frosty.]

34 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes agree Frosty.

Just musing around the probable pattern from day 10 the ens do show the Greenland trough dropping south east and a lot depends on the positioning of this.Those lowering heights being squeezed south east by the pincer redeveloping +ve height anomalies to the north west and the N.Russian heights.

It will turn colder if the ens are correct-after the coming milder spell but if we can get that trough a little further east that does open the door to another northerly rather than a cooler cyclonic setup currently modeled.

Agreed Phil, it doesn't look like the milder / more average spell will last too long and I'm very excited about the colder / blocked signal being mentioned by the experts, there wasn't even a hint of it last year with such a raging PV so it could / should mean a completely different december to last year which would be a huge relief to coldies like me.

Edited November 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Quite different to some previous runs, I prefer GEM's take on things

We can expect a fair bit of variation in 10 day charts but I would prefer not to see a repeat of the GFS 12z.

Whether you like it or not, the GFS 12Z is just as plausible though, the idea of attempted ridging is there but if the PV does not budge then you will get a pattern where the Atlantic will stay in control.

Hope it serves as a reality check though that at the end of the day, we can look at CFS charts, long range teleconnections and look for changes in the AO but at the end of the day its all down to watching what the models say in the short to medium term and that nothing is guranteed.

[Mucka]

Just now, Geordiesnow said:

Whether you like it or not, the GFS 12Z is just as plausible though, the idea of attempted ridging is there but if the PV does not budge then you will get a pattern where the Atlantic will stay in control.

Hope it serves as a reality check though that at the end of the day, we can look at CFS charts, long range teleconnections and look for changes in the AO but at the end of the day its all down to watching what the models say in the short to medium term and that nothing is guranteed.

It is plausible of course but not as plausible as less mobile output with MLB, HLB for that period rather than raging zonality.

It goes against the long range models, other output including its own and even its own ensembles.

Never say never and yeah it may be no bad thing to keep expectations in check but I see that as very much an outside possibility at this stage and you can quote me on that in a couple of weeks time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It is plausible of course but not as plausible as less mobile output with MLB, HLB for that period rather than raging zonality.

It goes against the long range models, other output including its own and even its own ensembles.

Never say never and yeah it may be no bad thing to keep expectations in check but I see that as very much an outside possibility at this stage and you can quote me on that in a couple of weeks time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Or even, to be fair, when the 12z ensembles come out.

[Geordiesnow]

16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It is plausible of course but not as plausible as less mobile output with MLB, HLB for that period rather than raging zonality.

It goes against the long range models, other output including its own and even its own ensembles.

Never say never and yeah it may be no bad thing to keep expectations in check but I see that as very much an outside possibility at this stage and you can quote me on that in a couple of weeks time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The GFS 12Z does hint of a ridge for the period people are hinting at but you can also see that it can go the other way also if the ridge does not budge the PV so nothing is ever set in stone and we must remember that.

Still nevertheless the GFS12Z still has the PV across the Arctic very much split thanks to strong southerly winds, the PV over Western Russia which is quite strong and something in recent years seem quite hard to come by so IF everything falls together, then that may come into play in the future but for now, the trends are for the outlook to turn milder and quite significantly so, all depends just how far that Azores high noses in then after that, perhaps some more typically Autuminal weather with rain and gales and feeling cool.

Edited November 8, 2016 by Geordiesnow

[Mucka]

21 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

The GFS 12Z does hint of a ridge for the period people are hinting at but you can also see that it can go the other way also if the ridge does not budge the PV so nothing is ever set in stone and we must remember that.

Still nevertheless the GFS12Z still has the PV across the Arctic very much split thanks to strong southerly winds, the PV over Western Russia which is quite strong and something in recent years seem quite hard to come by so IF everything falls together, then that may come into play in the future but for now, the trends are for the outlook to turn milder and quite significantly so, all depends just how far that Azores high noses in then after that, perhaps some more typically Autuminal weather with rain and gales and feeling cool.

I agree with the general sentiment but I'm not sure how I set anything in stone? 

All I said was I would prefer GFS 12z not to be repeated and then in a response that I see it as a less likely option along with a little tongue in cheek banter which also seems to have been misinterpreted by others.

Did I run over a popular forum members cat and you guys aren't telling me? 

 

GFS 12z ensembles a bit of a mixed bag, link to the postage stamps below.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=324

 

Edited November 8, 2016 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

Some posts have gone missing, Please keep to sensible 'Model Discussion'

Thanks, Please continue.

[Man With Beard]

34 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

GFS 12z ensembles a bit of a mixed bag, link to the postage stamps below.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=324

 

Yes still so much variation over the pole even by D8. I'm going to use that dreaded word 'potential' - that's all there is at the moment - it may be a few days before we start to see clear direction on the D10-D15 period.

[gottolovethisweather]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed Phil, it doesn't look like the milder / more average spell will last too long and I'm very excited about the colder / blocked signal being mentioned by the experts, there wasn't even a hint of it last year with such a raging PV so it could / should mean a completely different december to last year which would be a huge relief to coldies like me.

 

 

 

 

And a well below average November, prior to that, with bouts of wintriness for a fair few of us. Well, so says Gottolovethisweather. Personally, I hope the dry if not briefly warmer signal currently modelled for mid-term remains until D9/D10 (cue tonight's ECM) as that should assist in bringing colder air to the surface more readily thereafter. We don't want soggy mild ground conditions to ruin any impending colder spells down the line into the second half of November and beyond. 

 

Edited November 8, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[bobbydog]

It's been said many a time that we're unlikely to go the whole autumn without seeing at least some mobility and here we are seeing some modelled. So what. Amongst the 'mobile' charts there is a strong Russian high and it's a very cold one so it doesn't stand out as a 'blocking' high

And while that's going on so is this-

As long as charts like that are still appearing, i'm not worried.

 

[bluearmy]

Just an observation that both the op and para ECM 00z runs developed a TD in the Caribbean by day 10, heading ne into the Atlantic basin. Might be something to keep an eye out for. a feature like this can make a bit of a mess of the modelling in the 10/15 day period if it verifies and gets involved in the general circulation of the n Atlantic. 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

And a well below average November prior to that with bouts of wintriness for a fair few of us. Well, so says Gottolovethisweather.

I agree there was some polar maritime mixed with lots of mild mush  but nothing like the snow tonight which parts of the uk are going to receive.

[Cheshire Freeze]

17 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

It's been said many a time that we're unlikely to go the whole autumn without seeing at least some mobility and here we are seeing some modelled. So what. Amongst the 'mobile' charts there is a strong Russian high and it's a very cold one so it doesn't stand out as a 'blocking' high

And while that's going on so is this-

As long as charts like that are still appearing, i'm not worried.

 

That +NAO though...

My only concern at present is that we've seen strong Siberian highs over the past few years but they have done little to disrupt the NH vortex enough so to slow down the Atlantic conveyor on our side. Remember all that WAA pumped relentlessly into the Arctic early Jan? Well even that wasn't enough. I'd personally much rather see the trop vortex over that side and a more blocked look to proceedings over the N Atlantic sector.

ECM holds more promise at day 9 but we have all seen the tendency for over amplification/blockiness in its latter output

Day 10-

 

Ideally we don't want to see the trop vortex hang around Greenland for too long as it will just serve to strengthen the jet across the N Atlantic and suppress any attempts at heights building to a useful latitude going forward. Hard to get out of that pattern as we all know.

Edited November 8, 2016 by CreweCold

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That +NAO though...

My only concern at present is that we've seen strong Siberian highs over the past few years but they have done little to disrupt the NH vortex enough so to slow down the Atlantic conveyor on our side. Remember all that WAA pumped relentlessly into the Arctic early Jan? Well even that wasn't enough. I'd personally much rather see the trop vortex over that side and a more blocked look to proceedings over the N Atlantic sector.

But it is forecast to drop again-

As is the AO-

 

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

I agree with the general sentiment but I'm not sure how I set anything in stone? 

All I said was I would prefer GFS 12z not to be repeated and then in a response that I see it as a less likely option along with a little tongue in cheek banter which also seems to have been misinterpreted by others.

Did I run over a popular forum members cat and you guys aren't telling me? 

 

GFS 12z ensembles a bit of a mixed bag, link to the postage stamps below.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=324

 

I said that as an overall view rather than specificially yourself but it is something to bear in mind. 

Tonight's ECM for me is a bit dissapointing, we see a stronger PV than the 00Z run, the Russian high shaunted back to its 'normal' position and any attempts to weaken the PV is proving to be a struggle. Of course things will change and it will be interesting too see if future runs will have better ridging and have a better attack on the PV.

[Banbury]

Never worth hanging your hat on one run , best advice is always read IF's posts , always gives the professionals view

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows the Azores high ridging towards the uk during the weekend and more especially early next week which results in mild air flooding in across the uk but also a few days of largely fine weather for the south but as we go through next week, the Az high retreats as a trough swings down towards the uk from the NW which leads to a generally unsettled mobile extended outlook with temps close to average.

Edited November 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[Met4Cast]

The models are just picking up the Westerly/NWly signal a little more strongly now, the trend for a W/NW influence has been there for a while now. The trend for blocking is still there out in FI with many ensemble suites seeing a drop in temperatures after mid-month.

Height rises thereafter currently in favour though with this likely not until the end of the month, it's hardly a surprise we're not seeing a lot of blocking on the models at the moment. Expect to see better charts in around a weeks time when the end of November starts to come into the picture. ECM 12z hinting at an amplified pattern in FI.

All to play for, still no real sign of a massively strong Vortex.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

The models are just picking up the Westerly/NWly signal a little more strongly now, the trend for a W/NW influence has been there for a while now. The trend for blocking is still there out in FI with many ensemble suites seeing a drop in temperatures after mid-month.

Height rises thereafter currently in favour though with this likely not until the end of the month, it's hardly a surprise we're not seeing a lot of blocking on the models at the moment. Expect to see better charts in around a weeks time when the end of November starts to come into the picture. ECM 12z hinting at an amplified pattern in FI.

All to play for, still no real sign of a massively strong Vortex.

Yep I think we're going to have to buckle in for a couple of weeks worth of mobility. It was always in the script TBH. I think the issue is that recent years have had an effect on people and they are justifiably wary of mobility setting in as we approach winter proper. 

[northwestsnow]

One thing that strikes me from ECM is the amount of cold air beginning to bottle up over Greenland, hopefully we will see some disruption to that mid to longer term..

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think the 'mobility' will be a tad more interesting than mundane zoneality.  The ECM is only disappointing if one expects the here and now northern blocking.  I thought it is a fab run and pretty much on the money generally and t240 is Atlantic shutdown after that.  Funny how we get such an update from Fergie today and one or 2 runs have caused folk to wobble.  

 

BFTP

Edited November 8, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[vase1234]

Think Geordiesnow's post about a reality check is spot on. I was challenged for referring to the reliable, but all the long range 'excitment' is nice but means nothing ubtil it comes to fruiton. It is what it is until the speculated blocking actually materialises and....in the right place for our tiny island.

[ITSY]

History should be a warning that the models can show whatever they want, but unless the folks at the Meto are aligned, it's all pretty much academic. After Fergie's update, and subtle hints on the ECM and GFS of height rises somewhere to our NW in low res, I would be far happier now than at any stage in the last few winters.