Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No problem with the ECM Ensembles as they suggest a coldening with a bit to spare wrt getting it in before months end, mean 850hpa temp dropping like a stone and a good NH pattern at 240, be very interested to see the long ECM ens or at least a brief description of.

 

Best ensemble chart for a while looking at that - no PV at all over the pole so very susceptible to height rises from any angle. EC seasonal forecast out today will hopefully keep with the picture of a cold Dec/Jan which would keep many happy, but for now we just need to enjoy the potential snow for some tonight then hope some nice charts start appearing soon for later in Nov. This ECM ensemble chart suggests it could come earlier that late Nov , although not supported by other models !!

[Summer Sun]

ECM

7th to 13th

Temperatures remaining below average - precipitation average to slightly above average for most of England and Wales

14th to 20th no strong signals for temps and rain

21st to 27th no strong signals for temps and rain

 

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, IDO said:

The NH pattern remains mobile

No it doesn't. That is simply misleading. The global NH profile is anything but mobile and features a much weakened vortex currently under wave 1 attack, and a meandering jet which seasonally is more vigorous than we have now. Moving forward the pattern is set to become MORE mobile for the middle part of November before all forecasts point to more ridging in both the atlantic and perhaps now in eurasia too. 

GFS op this morning also maintaining an aleutian low though rather more of a wax/wane affair than it has been up until now. 

End result looks like a sustained period where blocking is the name of the game rather than anything approaching hemispheric mobility. Where the blocks set up is the big question, but with snow cover so high in Russia there has to be a growing suspicion of deeply cold air building out to our east with the chance of that cold air backing west as the jet remains weak.. If cold is what you are after then we need continued sustained hits on the vortex to keep it on the wobble. Aleutian low plus eurasian ridge is no bad start. GP is not allowed to say more beyond the 4 week point these days, but his post this morning in the strat thread simply oozed a desire to point a long term finger.

This winter is beginning to look very exciting indeed. If you want mobility in the first half of this winter you need a time machine with a -1 year switch. 

The longer term question is - can the vortex recover from this very poor start or are we in for a season long pattern of wintry outbreaks?

[Banbury]

14 minutes ago, Catacol said:

No it doesn't. That is simply misleading. The global NH profile is anything but mobile and features a much weakened vortex currently under wave 1 attack, and a meandering jet which seasonally is more vigorous than we have now. Moving forward the pattern is set to become MORE mobile for the middle part of November before all forecasts point to more ridging in both the atlantic and perhaps now in eurasia too. 

GFS op this morning also maintaining an aleutian low though rather more of a wax/wane affair than it has been up until now. 

End result looks like a sustained period where blocking is the name of the game rather than anything approaching hemispheric mobility. Where the blocks set up is the big question, but with snow cover so high in Russia there has to be a growing suspicion of deeply cold air building out to our east with the chance of that cold air backing west as the jet remains weak.. If cold is what you are after then we need continued sustained hits on the vortex to keep it on the wobble. Aleutian low plus eurasian ridge is no bad start. GP is not allowed to say more beyond the 4 week point these days, but his post this morning in the strat thread simply oozed a desire to point a long term finger.

This winter is beginning to look very exciting indeed. If you want mobility in the first half of this winter you need a time machine with a -1 year switch. 

The longer term question is - can the vortex recover from this very poor start or are we in for a season long pattern of wintry outbreaks?

I agree , I couldn't see a Zonal train

[Seasonality]

3 hours ago, IDO said:

The NH pattern remains mobile

42 minutes ago, Catacol said:

No it doesn't. That is simply misleading. The global NH profile is anything but mobile and features a much weakened vortex currently under wave 1 attack, and a meandering jet which seasonally is more vigorous than we have now. Moving forward the pattern is set to become MORE mobile for the middle part of November before all forecasts point to more ridging in both the atlantic and perhaps now in eurasia too. 

GFS op this morning also maintaining an aleutian low though rather more of a wax/wane affair than it has been up until now. 

End result looks like a sustained period where blocking is the name of the game rather than anything approaching hemispheric mobility. Where the blocks set up is the big question, but with snow cover so high in Russia there has to be a growing suspicion of deeply cold air building out to our east with the chance of that cold air backing west as the jet remains weak.. If cold is what you are after then we need continued sustained hits on the vortex to keep it on the wobble. Aleutian low plus eurasian ridge is no bad start. GP is not allowed to say more beyond the 4 week point these days, but his post this morning in the strat thread simply oozed a desire to point a long term finger.

This winter is beginning to look very exciting indeed. If you want mobility in the first half of this winter you need a time machine with a -1 year switch. 

The longer term question is - can the vortex recover from this very poor start or are we in for a season long pattern of wintry outbreaks?

Well said Catacol, although I'd point out that the post you're responding to is in internet parlance, something you shouldn't feed.

[Bristawl Si]

Russian High - friend or foe?

Wasnt it a couple of winters ago that it effectively blocked the Atlantic?.......for Scandinavia.

Effectively 'relegating' Blighty to a series of wet, mildish weeks, as we were on the 'wrong side' of the trough......just my sole cautionary note.

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Russian High - friend or foe?

Wasnt it a couple of winters ago that it effectively blocked the Atlantic?.......for Scandinavia.

Effectively 'relegating' Blighty to a series of wet, mildish weeks, as we were on the 'wrong side' of the trough......just my sole cautionary note.

Be even worse if the eastern side of the USA kicks off with heavy snow and fires up the jet like the last 3 winters - then we're in trouble - but so far crossed fingers, it doesn't look that way just yet - but Mr. Joe B has hinted that a bad winter with heavy snows for the eastern side of the USA is coming - so we'll have to see

Edited November 8, 2016 by andymusic

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Russian High - friend or foe?

Wasnt it a couple of winters ago that it effectively blocked the Atlantic?.......for Scandinavia.

Effectively 'relegating' Blighty to a series of wet, mildish weeks, as we were on the 'wrong side' of the trough......just my sole cautionary note.

Chasing an easterly from Russia is not top of my list of how to get cold that's for sure!! Rarely do they come off and we can end up very very wet!

[Ravelin]

No comments on the GFS 06Z yet?

Probably because after the current 'snap' it looks like a predominately westerly flow out until about day 7, then turning more to the NW. Out as far as t222, which looks like this...

Nice 'hole' over the pole there. Could that doughnut come with some icing on top?

Edited November 8, 2016 by Ravelin

[Ali1977]

Great day 9 chart, if anything the Siberian high may help by linking with WAA pushing up through Canada, the tricky bit is how this sets up if that does happen.

And here how it ends up, similar looking to the ECM mean at 240 too. I think we're getting somewhere. 

Anyone spot the PV?

Edited November 8, 2016 by Ali1977

[The Beast From The East]

20 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Russian High - friend or foe?

Wasnt it a couple of winters ago that it effectively blocked the Atlantic?.......for Scandinavia.

Effectively 'relegating' Blighty to a series of wet, mildish weeks, as we were on the 'wrong side' of the trough......just my sole cautionary note.

I think you are correct, if my memory serves me well then I believe a couple of years ago the Russian high was in fact foe and not are friend. I believe it caused flood problems over parts of the U.K. as the Atlantic fronts were just hitting the block to the east of us and we're just stalling over the uk.

Im very much new at reading the models but would love it if someone more experienced on here could let me know how a Russian high can be are friend and not so much foe.. Many thanks. 

Edited November 8, 2016 by Siberian Xpress
Spelling

[Paul_1978]

It would be silly of us not to expect a bit of mobility.

However it is always good to bear in mind the bigger picture - one of the pieces of the jigsaw is the AO. Note the peak around the 15th Nov, but there is a clear trend of the AO tanking negative by approximately the 20th November.

The best approach for me (as a coldie) is to sit tight and enjoy the ride for the next week, and look forward to what might come - remember winter is 3 weeks away yet...it's still actually only autumn.

[bluearmy]

23 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Russian High - friend or foe?

Wasnt it a couple of winters ago that it effectively blocked the Atlantic?.......for Scandinavia.

Effectively 'relegating' Blighty to a series of wet, mildish weeks, as we were on the 'wrong side' of the trough......just my sole cautionary note.

Depends on upstream - if we have n Atlantic blocking as per the seasonal modelling then any strengthened jet will have to go into nw Europe if the Russian ridge remains

then it becomes a case of where the -NAO sets up - west based and we are wet, anywhere else and we are in business! 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I wouldn't stress Andy, Joe Bastardi is hardly considered a reliable forecaster these days.

That's also a pretty questionable statement 

weatherbell have done pretty well on the USA winters past few years

(Though I'm not sure they have promised anything overly unusual for the eastern USA - moreso ne USA which may drive the Greenland ridge)

Edited November 8, 2016 by bluearmy

[Ravelin]

Interesting evolution...

d8   d10 

d12  d14

d16

[Zakos]

The Russian high will certainly be our friend if it merges with the atlantic block over Greenland as many runs have shown to happen

After a few days of atlantic weather,  the low heights over Greenland are set to sink over Europe.

This is why I remain confident that we are not going to see the atlantic suddenly fire up in the near future. The models never really show blocking in the atlantic fading completely. It only ever seems to temporarily weaken and then reasserts itself relatively quickly

Both ECM and GFS show this at day 10.

In the later frames, the GFS (on many runs) wants to push the core of the low heights in a south easterly direction, putting the UK into a very cold airflow

By the end of the run, the atlantic is effectively dead, and Europe is locked into a cold pattern

Perhaps in winters with a strong jet stream ,the russian high may be our foe.But it appears these next few weeks it may well be our friend.

I personally have quite high hopes for cold weather over the Uk during the next few weeks.

 

Edited November 8, 2016 by Zakos

[karlos1983]

This has definitely become the trend over the past few runs. Heights set to build back over Greenland. Northerly looking more and more likely as we move into final third of November. 

As for the PV, its.... well I errmmm..... it's having trouble at home put it that way 

NICE

 

[Ali1977]

Some great FI ensembles but the mean doesn't really paint that picture!! Quite a few Big Greeny or Scandy highs.

[ITSY]

OMG. Look through some of the GEFS ens for the 06z. Not many lead to anything for our shores in the short term, but the NH profile by the end of FI is absolutely staggering. Scandi blocks, Icelandic blocks, Greenland blocks, Artic highs. Absolutely bonkers. Northerlies, Easterlies, cold NWlies. All out in lala land but well worth noting as a trend. Of course, several runs keep the Atlantic active but even this 'activity' is supressed by recent standards and relatively maritime. Patience grasshopper...

Edited November 8, 2016 by ITSY

[JOPRO]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Russian High - friend or foe?

Wasnt it a couple of winters ago that it effectively blocked the Atlantic?.......for Scandinavia.

Effectively 'relegating' Blighty to a series of wet, mildish weeks, as we were on the 'wrong side' of the trough......just my sole cautionary note.

I think it was winter 2011/12 but we did manage a cold spell at the end of January/Start of February from what I remember with some snow and cold nights for a weeks or so. Seem to remember after what seemed like an eternity the Russian High back west and got us on the cold side of the bloc for a while before it was shunted east again. Maybe some can confirm this? 

[Ali1977]

FI I know, but lots of greens and yellows at the top of there ENS...Normally these would be blue and purple at this time of year.

back to the here and now - rain turning wintery as the front hits Scotland - some decent falls possible.

Edited November 8, 2016 by Ali1977

[fergieweather]

ECMWF Seasonal just released: extensive +ve GPH/MSLP to N/NW/NE of UK through its D-J-F suite. Consistent signal with last run.

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

ECMWF Seasonal just released: extensive +ve GPH/MSLP to N/NW/NE of UK through its D-J-F suite. Consistent signal with last run.

Great news for coldies, this "could" be a pretty impressive winter if this proves correct. A lot of ground to cover first but nice to see Feb modelled cold too.

cheers for the update Ian. 

Edited November 8, 2016 by Ali1977

[Man With Beard]

Well yet more interesting winter updates coming out - thank you Fergie once again - and this kind of set-up is increasingly being reflected nearer to real-time. I've kind of been holding off a winter forecast until the end of November as I know the PV can come back fighting around this time of year, but it is looking just a little more likely every day. The latest GEFS ensembles show how the Russian High cuts through the PV like a knife into butter, spreading heights out the other side by D12 - the op run has already shown that, and it has plenty of reasonably backing, such as:

The spanner in the works may not be zonality - that would be a big surprise for now - but instead the knife being guided through to another part of the NH, such as this one:

In a nutshell? Ingredients for another polar outbreak are loaded. Balance of ingredients may affect product quality for the UK!! (at least in the short term)

 

[tight isobar]

That's great news in regards (latest ecm seasonal)....

And the consistency' further worthy of note!!!!!