Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, vase1234 said:

Does everyone live on low ground? This is 'an event' for many. Can't see your general outbreak of cold in the reliable.

OK then...... Lets try the ECM and GFS 00z for size..

regardless of time frame, it's showing it, so there's potential.

Edited November 7, 2016 by karlos1983

[Zakos]

Its clear we are going to see some atlantic influence

However, looking at the last 4 runs, the jet stream forecast for +120 hours is weaker, more disorganised and has made less progress eastwards into Europe on each run.

I think the GFS is putting to much energy into the atlantic, and is certainly too progressive with removing the cold air from europe.

Edited November 7, 2016 by Zakos

[vase1234]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

OK then...... Lets try the ECM and GFS 00z for size..

regardless of time frame, it's showing it, so there's potential.

 

Thanks for the reply, but those charts are not in the reliable, as per my previous post. There's always potential in any chart. Cheers.

[karlos1983]

Just now, vase1234 said:

Thanks for the reply, but those charts are not in the reliable, as per my previous post. There's always potential in any chart. Cheers.

Well that's not really how it works in a thread that exists to discuss the weather models, not just out to +96 hours. Try it, you might enjoy it..

Cheers

[Smiler1709]

6 minutes ago, vase1234 said:

Thanks for the reply, but those charts are not in the reliable, as per my previous post. There's always potential in any chart. Cheers.

Actually the charts show a great outlook for our winter prospects if cold is what you like, past day 6 we look for trends, the trend is there's a very disorganised vortex with blocking high pressure setting up ready for the start of winter. 

[Ali1977]

What a great chart for mid Nov.

Made we starting to get sone continuity here I wonder 

Edited November 7, 2016 by Ali1977

[Scandinavian High.]

Here we go has its there might as well show it cold  and blocked towards month end.

[Paul_1978]

The 06z GFS (Western Europe/Atlantic view) is almost identical to the 00z up to 252h. Can barely see any difference at all. 

[Ravelin]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What a great chart for mid Nov.

Made we starting to get sone continuity here I wonder 

Well it's not 100miles away from the same time on the 0Z...

I'd say the 6z you posted is a little better though.

9 minutes ago, vase1234 said:

Last one..ok..keep chasing 10 day charts....enjoy at your peril.

But it is enjoyable, as long as you do it with your 'eyes open'. 0-5 days you're looking at nuances, 5-10 trends, 10+ pure fun.

[karlos1983]

16 minutes ago, vase1234 said:

Last one..ok..keep chasing 10 day charts....enjoy at your peril. 

I think you misunderstand me and actually almost everyone in here, I'm here because I like to discuss the models with all the members, learn and in Winter, yes chase the hope that we can get a UK wide cold outbreak. Not to rub someone up the wrong way. 

Models go out past the reliable time frame, but that is how we pick up on what we might expect 10 or 15 days down the line, if we all knew what was going to happen in that time frame, it would be quite a dull thread. 

From the charts that I posted, now I will look to see if it is repeated on the 12z, or if it was just one set of models leading me up the garden path. That's the fun bit! 

I thank you for your genuine concern though.

 

GFS looking similar to the ECM 00z, so lets see how this evolves in future output.

Edited November 7, 2016 by karlos1983

[Zakos]

3 minutes ago, vase1234 said:

Last one..ok..keep chasing 10 day charts....enjoy at your peril. 

The building blocks for cold are there in the reliable though

The atlantic block as we speak has joined forces with the siberian block, but the ridge is too weak and the atlantic breaks through.

throughout the GFS run, the atlantic block is constantly trying to merge with the siberian block

Eventually, the blocks merge over Greenland, producing the above charts... the best case scenario in my opinion.

Its not chasing cold, its looking at plausible evolutions of the pattern. This merging of the blocks has been mentioned by more knowledgeable members on the forum, and I personally am seeing this pattern change to be more likely each day.

If the pattern was as it was last year.. then it would be classed as blindly chasing cold IMO.

This pattern change is a very real possibility.

[feb1991blizzard]

STONKING NH PATTERN ALERT!

BIG DUMPINGS MOVING EVER NEARER.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

STONKING NH PATTERN ALERT!

BIG DUMPINGS MOVING EVER NEARER.

Lol  it certainly is heading in the right direction   a pattern might be emerging for the middle of the month   meanwhile a nice tweet from Judah  (apologises if as been posted before)

#polarvortex evolution will be important for early winter weather. GFS forecast potentially wicked cold for Europe but expect hi volatility!

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

STONKING NH PATTERN ALERT!

 

BIG DUMPINGS MOVING EVER NEARER.

06z typical overplaying the warming? I hope not. looks toasty! The timing of that would be near perfect 

 

Side note, anyone else having an issue on meteociel bringing up archives? Trying to look for 10mb charts for November 2010, but the images wont show. 

Edited November 7, 2016 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

06z typical overplaying the warming? I hope not. looks toasty! The timing of that would be near perfect 

The thing is though that a lot of times the warming is bigger on the 6z but very often there isn't much difference to the vortex positioning, I don't like the 1mb chart with the vortex over the pole but its inevitable at this time of year.

[Geordiesnow]

Back to reality, the trends from this morning would be the shifting of the block to the east, it tried to put up a fight but now it looks like it will eventually be shifted out of the way and the potential for some very mild conditions to arrive by Friday and into the weekend, the very mild air at the moment is forecast with quite a bit of rainfall also so definately a wet and windy period coming up, typical Autumn weather really.

Models also hinting at the Azores high coming up bringing again some very mild conditions, rainfall could well be less widespread if this happens but a very mild trend is certainly on the card, question is, just how quick will this happen, will the blocking to the NE hold on for a bit longer or will it be shunted out of the way by the Atlantic jet?

[JeffC]

I know this isn't absolutely model talk, but is related. Remember you can actually see some of the features pictorially represented on here https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=1.28,28.79,327/loc=-3.099,53.277

If you click on the "Earth" letters it lets you play with various Pressures, and other features and gives temp wind flow etc. It really shows how warm much of Canada is given that it's v early morning there. 

Should also show any warming come the time

Edited November 7, 2016 by JeffC

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

06z typical overplaying the warming? I hope not. looks toasty! The timing of that would be near perfect 

 

Side note, anyone else having an issue on meteociel bringing up archives? Trying to look for 10mb charts for November 2010, but the images wont show. 

There weren't these charts available in 2010 so won't be on the Meteociel archive 

Note gfs op is following the gefs and eps extended mean anomolys in dropping the trough into w Europe post day 10

current modelling says that the gfs op could be progressive re the mid Atlantic ridge and therefore the trough and CAA may not be so marked. Also, risk that any -NAO is west based due to e European/e med ridging backing west which could be frustrating but would rather see this in mid November than several weeks later. An amplified pattern is good for more wave breaking - better for December onwards when wintry sypnotics more likely to deliver wintry surface conditions.

V content with where we are headed from a coldie perspective 

[Gael_Force]

22 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Side note, anyone else having an issue on meteociel bringing up archives? Trying to look for 10mb charts for November 2010, but the images wont show. 

I don't think Meteociel had 10mb strat charts in 2010. You would probably need to use the NOAA ESRL reanalysis for looking high up.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

Better still, just remembered @Mattias link.

http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/x-ssw-archive-temp-geopot-height-30hpa-2010-november/

 

Edited November 7, 2016 by Gael_Force

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

I think you misunderstand me and actually almost everyone in here, I'm here because I like to discuss the models with all the members, learn and in Winter, yes chase the hope that we can get a UK wide cold outbreak. Not to rub someone up the wrong way. 

Models go out past the reliable time frame, but that is how we pick up on what we might expect 10 or 15 days down the line, if we all knew what was going to happen in that time frame, it would be quite a dull thread. 

From the charts that I posted, now I will look to see if it is repeated on the 12z, or if it was just one set of models leading me up the garden path. That's the fun bit! 

I thank you for your genuine concern though.

 

GFS looking similar to the ECM 00z, so lets see how this evolves in future output.

You are absouletly correct it about looking for trends and to see if they

Are repeated on the next run and so on,i think we have all been around longer enough not to take a D10 chart serious,but i must Admit

I do raise an eyebrow and get that little flutter in my tummy,thats just

The big kid in me though.

C.S

 

[Glacier Point]

06z GEFS mean looking a lot like EC week 4 at the end of the run. Add to that the continued CFS week 3 / 4 forecasts, the jet profile over the US looking very interesting right now during the second half of the month leading into early December.

[Seasonality]

9 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

06z GEFS mean looking a lot like EC week 4 at the end of the run. Add to that the continued CFS week 3 / 4 forecasts, the jet profile over the US looking very interesting right now during the second half of the month leading into early December.

Speaking of CFS, some chilly charts being churned out for mid December. Here is an example, just for fun of course.

 

 

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Speaking of CFS, some chilly charts being churned out for mid December. Here is an example, just for fun of course.

 

 

The CFS was showing mild recently so this is a very pleasant change

[Frosty.]

There are already early weather warnings in force for higher parts of central and northern uk for snow and you can see why that's the case going by these Gfs 6z charts which show quite a few hours worth of snow with elevation and don't be surprised if some descends to lower levels..the interior of scotland is in line for a spell of heavy snow higher up and looking at the midweek temps shows an early taste of winter, the first salvo of hopefully many cold and wintry spells during the next 4 months or so!

I know this is only a northern event but it's very worthy of discussion. 

[weirpig]

43 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There are already early weather warnings in force for higher parts of central and northern uk for snow and you can see why that's the case going by these Gfs 6z charts which show quite a few hours worth of snow with elevation and don't be surprised if some descends to lower levels..the interior of scotland is in line for a spell of heavy snow higher up and looking at the midweek temps shows an early taste of winter, the first salvo of hopefully many cold and wintry spells during the next 4 months or so!

I know this is only a northern event but it's very worthy of discussion. 

Yes Karl  this little event seems to have gone under the radar somewhat.  Ive just had a browse through the recent Euro4 run and it brings the snow risk as far south as the Midlands(  the East)  so some may have a surprise or two   Edit  i also have my first snow symbol of the season

Edited November 7, 2016 by weirpig