Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Frosty.]

This would feel a bit nippy from the Gfs 18z

[Frosty.]

It goes on for days with the trough to the east just sitting there and even though we don't even tap into the coldest air, it would still feel bitterly cold in the Gale force Nly winds despite what the thermometer shows..a chilly Gfs 18z low res with further attempts at arctic incursions.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

Average height anomolys for last 4 CFS runs for winter, I know it's America and this is the CFS - but that is an impressive strong block over Greenland.  Not worth taking seriously but if it were true that would mean surely we'd be getting some proper cold spells to our shores!!

[Mucka]

Have to say GFS 18z ensembles are the most mobile in a long while.

Is it on to something?

Impossible to call given the divergence in the output for mid month and beyond.

 

[Gael_Force]

I cannot ever remember seeing a late November chart like this one: it's almost like a summer configuration with so many waves.

[Catacol]

5 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I cannot ever remember seeing a late November chart like this one: it's almost like a summer configuration with so many waves.

And a trough over the north pacific once again though not as intense as in Ocotber and early Nov. I think we need to see the pacific ocean/atmosphere disconnect last as long as possible if something special is to transpire this winter. A coldish start seems a decent punt at the moment (remembering that we are still a good way off from winter proper yet....) but if we lose the aleutian low completely then the chances of vortex reformation increase. A couple more weeks of good teleconnections and maybe - just maybe - we can contemplate seriously a winter with an extended spell of cold temperatures and snow for many. Becoming cautiously optimistic. So much snow in Russia/Siberia now, and at an impressively low latitude + no obvious sign of westerlies in the mix for the next few weeks = chances of a strong to very strong siberian high must surely be high. A pattern of undercuts as the siberian high waxes and wanes must become a possibility for an extended period.

Stratospheric monitoring this winter is going to be fascinating given the near ideal conditions the end of autumn is producing.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hang on a minute, interesting developments on the 0z GFS. Small patch of high pressure shows up S Scandi which holds up eastwards progression of LP. Very wet UK but jet buckled and sending WAA northwards

Intriguing watching the trop vortex trying to crank up then afflicting itself as it does so. Attacked from all angles and starts to become ragged again

 

AO firmly negative on the 0z by day 10. It's like the parting of the red sea across the polar regions between days 8-10. Run the animation through on Meteociel.

And sure enough, up she goes in the Atlantic

Come to papa!

Best FI output so far this season by a country mile.

Edited November 7, 2016 by CreweCold

[That ECM]

What a fantastic start to the season imo. My fence is still upright, result. Not watching people on the news being rescued in boats from their houses result. Decent frost for most already and some parts are likely to have snow to look at by Wednesday. 

 

The out put is sporadic with blocking being modelled in the north west then the north east and occasionally at the same time. Much to be resolved and all very interesting to watch but a blocked theme for the middle to end of the month is the favourite imo what that will mean for our little part of the world? Who knows.... 

[sorepaw1]

Most of November's charts have been interesting imo from gfs. If you like cool/ colder conditions. Last night's 18z.. and this mornings 00z. Are cracking for cold potential. We may have to put up with a cool brief westerly that gets dismissed quite readily. Before we get to the much colder conditions. Much past T+144hrs.

Is hit and miss but it seems colder weather looks more dominant since the 31st of October on gfs.

This time last year we was wearing shorts with our wellies.  Well not quite but you know what I mean. 

[Scandinavian High.]

Are we just beginning to sign of blocked pattern return later this month the PV is in tatters .

Edited November 7, 2016 by abbie123

[SMU]

Morning 

just a quick one from me-

The GFS 00z shows what can happen when the vortex gets shunted east across the pole -

Heights encouraged Northwards up into Greenland is certainly possible circa days 9-11...

we just need to move through this next week first with snow prospects for the North - !

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Both GFS and ECM now showing the type of evolution going forward I have in mind and tried to envisage in the Nov CET thread. Watch for the displaced PV and heights to our NW develop down the line.  Trough disruption episodes first with Scandinavia HP holding ground.  A good model watching month this

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Well this is GREAT to see, the Gfs 00z op shows a widespread frost tonight and tomorrow looks the coldest day of the autumn so far...and as rain pushes east it turns to snow across higher ground of central and northern uk with a risk of significant falls and even some wintry mixing on some lower ground too!

[bluearmy]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

AO firmly negative on the 0z by day 10. It's like the parting of the red sea across the polar regions between days 8-10. Run the animation through on Meteociel.

And sure enough, up she goes in the Atlantic

Surprised to see the actual graph for the AO Crewe 

Behind day10 it would dive south of that line though. 

Edited November 7, 2016 by bluearmy

[karlos1983]

Well well well! 

Its as if the models know it's Monday and we all need cheering up. I wasn't expecting to see that output from gfs and ECM this morning. Not bad in terms of both models agree on the ridging in the N Atlantic at D10 and then the Gfs gives us a nirvana run out to the end of the run. So a new week brings new drama. Happy days!

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM sniffed at this yesterday and day before, albeit the day before imo the heights to our W/ NW were too soon.  Cold week ahead for time of year with a tempting good start to winter down the line too.

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows pressure rising across the south later in the run so a few days of fine weather further south before low pressure arrives from the northwest by T+240 and beyond day 10 looks more unsettled. This week looks cold and there will be night frosts and snow for some..especially tomorrow

Edited November 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

A high chance of snow in the north tomorrow afternoon and into Wednesday especially over high ground low parts may see some wet snow for a time during the early hours too

[Ravelin]

End of the GFS run, in extreme FI, but it was worth getting up on a Monday morning just to see this.

Almost makes the start of a new working week bearable, along with webcam pictures of snow across the Alps, and even the Scottish ski resorts.

[legritter]

Good morning gang ,nice to have a nice crisp cold morning ,And some interesting synoptics to start the week .Looking at this mornings charts it does look that milder air will gain the upper hand after a short fight though ,but i,m not putting too much faith past next weekend as i,m expecting that there will be many twists and turns ,simply because the GFS is showing a big difference from each run and ECM past 6 days currently could lead to another cold shot IF high pressure sets up in the correct position for the UK .

Would like to State Again this year that any Member of Net weather who would like to understand the workings of the upper atmosphere would or could benefit from studying the Science of Contrails ,if you type in Science of Contrails it makes a good read ,how they form and what shape ,how long they last etc ,how much Moisture is up there how dry it is and wind circulation ,you can even track which Jet is causing the contrail and what altitude it is at . So some interesting months ahead gang ,catch you up later 

[Frosty.]

Do not adjust your monitors, this is in fact that white fluffy substance we call snow! Really wintry looking charts tomorrow and overnight into Wednesday..and winter is still 3 weeks away

[karlos1983]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Do not adjust your monitors, this is in fact that white fluffy substance we call snow! Really wintry looking charts tomorrow and overnight into Wednesday..and winter is still 3 weeks away

For high ground in the North, so this is a non event really. 

Things looking good for general outbreak of cold going off the 00z models though.

[Frosty.]

For some low ground in the north too, like Glasgow for example, anyway it's the opening salvo of wintry weather with sharp frosts tonight and then again tomorrow night over the snow fields of high ground northern England and Scotland so some lucky folk will be on lamp post alert tomorrow evening!

[vase1234]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

For high ground in the North, so this is a non event really. 

Things looking good for general outbreak of cold going off the 00z models though.

Does everyone live on low ground? This is 'an event' for many. Can't see your general outbreak of cold in the reliable.

[Iceaxecrampon]

06Z

Looking good for midweek  - usual highground UK suspects with ppn down to 1800ft and below.

T+39 (Tuesday)

Nice to see so early but shortlived - Cairngorms looking like a full snowday with this NW front.