Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[blizzard81]

Don't know why but I have noticed for years that the GFS 00z runs always seem to be by far the least amplified. Anyone else noticed this?

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows increasing atlantic influence from midweek onwards with ebb and flow of the Azores high vs lower heights to the nw / n but through the mid range it becomes more trough dominated, temps start cold but gradually recover although nothing seriously mild is indicated during the next few weeks.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[Zakos]

Very tempted to catch a bus to the peak district this afternoon, looks like the showers are falling as snow over there.

Does anyone know if this pattern would have seen snow fall to low levels if it occurred during December?

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Very tempted to catch a bus to the peak district this afternoon, looks like the showers are falling as snow over there.

Does anyone know if this pattern would have seen snow fall to low levels if it occurred during December?

Yes I would think so, as the arctic gets colder, so any northerly reaching the uk would be considerably colder by December with wish bone effect snow showers and widespread sharp frosts..hope this pattern repeats in winter when it would actually deliver something to low ground! :- )

Edited November 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[Zakos]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Yes I would think so, as the arctic gets colder, so any northerly reaching the uk would be considerably colder by December with wish bone effect snow showers and widespread sharp frosts..hope this pattern repeats when it would deliver something! :- )

Yes, I think so too. A shame it has occurred just too early in the season, as i believe large swaths of the UK would have seen snowfall in this setup.

Lets hope for more of the same in the coming weeks!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Yes, I think so too. A shame it has occurred just too early in the season, as i believe large swaths of the UK would have seen snowfall in this setup.

Lets hope for more of the same in the coming weeks!

Certainly with a NEly component as we have now, the showers would be blown well inland whereas a straight Northerly would mean showers draped around the coasts and yes I agree.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[Zakos]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Certainly with a NEly component as we have now, the showers would be blown well inland whereas a straight Northerly would mean showers draped around the coasts and yes I agree.

yes most definitely

The waters to our east are anomalously warm aswell, this is probably partially to blame. These should however cool fairly quickly if this blocked pattern continues.

[legritter]

6 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Very tempted to catch a bus to the peak district this afternoon, looks like the showers are falling as snow over there.

Does anyone know if this pattern would have seen snow fall to low levels if it occurred during December?

quite possibly ,but probably in any heavy outburst ,also early morning and evening time ,lets hope we CAN see more of these synoptics over the coming winter ,As far as todays model output still uncertain where we will be Synoptic wise in the further outlook perod IE 8days , on this mornings ecm we have a large elongated High pressure belt setting up at day 8/10 across our patch ,yet on GFS a deep low tracking e/seast , look on met office update and read between lines and Bingo we have the ANswer ,[ answer being Not known ] which

for me personally makes things interesting going into mid  month ,certainly not boring ,cheers gang Ice on the bird bath this morning plus local squirrel with a coat on 

[gottolovethisweather]

57 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes I would think so, as the arctic gets colder, so any northerly reaching the uk would be considerably colder by December with wish bone effect snow showers and widespread sharp frosts..hope this pattern repeats in winter when it would actually deliver something to low ground! :- )

 

 

 

 

 

In fact, despite it only being November, lowland snow is possible for a brief time on Tuesday according to latest BBC forecasts, currently favouring the North and NE, but a definite case of watch this space! This is precisely why I never stress over how developments might pan out into mid-term or beyond (right now expectations past D4 are said to be FI) ,  enjoy the next few days, today through Tuesday guys n gals, if you're into the colder synoptics.

Edited November 6, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

In fact, despite it only being November, lowland snow is possible for a brief time on Tuesday according to latest BBC forecasts, currently favouring the North and NE, but a definite case of watch this space! This is precisely why I never stress over how developments might pan out into mid-term or beyond (right now expectations past D4 are said to be FI) ,  enjoy the next few days, today through Tuesday guys n gals, if you're into the colder synoptics.

I'm definitely into colder synoptics and what I meant was a repeat pattern with no borderline issues, a proper arctic blast later in November and during winter is what I want.

[snowwman]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Don't know why but I have noticed for years that the GFS 00z runs always seem to be by far the least amplified. Anyone else noticed this?

Sort of- I've noticed that the 18z seems to be the most amplified, though I haven't done any research to check this. What I've noticed about GFS is that it tends to go full circle wih an idea such as a break-down of a warm spell, or a block forming. For example, it's been putting out some very zonal charts for the 20th or thereabouts for a few days now, but the latest run final frame shows this:

  !

Edited November 6, 2016 by snowwman

[Summer Sun]

The NAO looks like it will head negative again around mid-month

[Frosty.]

Just been flicking through the GEFS 6z perturbations and found a blowtorch southerly, a reminder of last December!

The majority were unsettled but none of them indicate any sustainable cold, just a few mini cool / cold shots mixed with average and milder..nothing for coldies to get excited about here!

Edited November 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[bobbydog]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just been flicking through the GEFS 6z perturbations and found a blowtorch southerly, a reminder of last December!

The majority were unsettled but none of them indicate any sustainable cold, just a few mini cool / cold shots mixed with average and milder..nothing for coldies to get excited about here!

Fortunately, none of them will be right and none of them stretch into winter....

[Mucka]

For now, probably best to look for some consistency between not only runs but also models between 96h and 144h.

There is no signal in FI other than any westerlies are unlikely to penetrate as far as Eastern Europe which can also be read as no typical zonal conditions on the horizon - although that doesn't mean no wet and windy weather for  us at times.

MLB likely to persist at least out to day 10, especially to our E/NE but we could be seeing a flow anywhere from W to E depending on upstream developments so not much use.

For now, probably best to look for some consistency between not only runs but also models between 96h and 144h - or did I already say that. 

 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Fortunately, none of them will be right and none of them stretch into winter....

Well I hope you're right but I'm just calling it as I see it, the Gefs 6z was very meh in my opinion  

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well I hope you're right but I'm just calling it as I see it, the Gefs 6z was very meh in my opinion  

What often seems to happen, is that when, say, the 06Z is 'meh'; the 12Z that follows it is 'boom'; the 18Z is either 'boom' or 'only the pub run'; as for the 12Z, I've no idea...It's just that comparing one run to the previous one seems almost pointless?

Bloody good fun, though!

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What often seems to happen, is that when, say, the 06Z is 'meh'; the 12Z that follows it is 'boom'; the 18Z is either 'boom' or 'only the pub run'; as for the 12Z, I've no idea...It's just that comparing one run to the previous one seems almost pointless?

Bloody good fun, though!

I agree Ed..I mean pete

The models are a rollercoaster ride of emotional highs and lows. There has / is a lot of excitement about the huge potential re the Ecm 0z op? I didn't see anything exciting about the Ecm 0z op by the way.. but both the ecm ens mean and the Gefs mean show increasing atlantic influence rather than a continuation of blocking.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[Hocus Pocus]

21 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Fortunately, none of them will be right and none of them stretch into winter....

There's one thing I've learnt from years of studying model output and that is no matter how progressive etc, etc a model run is never discount it as unlikely to happen,, more so when it's a projection that hasn't happened yet.  So until it actually verifies or not, then it's just another solution that may or may not happen.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Hocus Pocus

[phil nw.]

Just to illustrate the uncertainty past day 4-the London temp. graph

showing a lot of colder members and the Op runs on the warmer side.Maybe the Operational runs are leading the way-but some could say the ens. leave room for further trough disruption holding up any real Atlantic incursion.UK model at day 6 showing this further west across the UK than the others.

 

 

[Frosty.]

Whilst there is nothing particularly wintry about the outlook, there is no mild weather to speak of either, just short-lived milder incursions.. with a generally wnw / ese aligned jet, temps are expected to stay largely just below average and feeling rather cold at times due to occasionally stronger winds and it looks unsettled for most of the time with rain and showers with brief more settled interludes between and overnight frosts where skies clear and winds fall light.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[booferking]

Difference at 96hr still with the intensity of the low north of scotland models are really struggling.

[doctor32]

The low over the uk @ 162hrs could be the key to what lies ahead, alot further south on this run

Also UKMO @ 144hrs much better soloution regarding that low...

Shame we can't see further ahead with this model as 162hrs would be interesting... Easterly incoming possibly??

Edited November 6, 2016 by doctor32

[Ali1977]

GFS and UKMO at 144 are pretty similar around NE Canada, but still plenty of difference in Europe - could be a few days Atleast before we have an idea as to what mid month may bring, nothing of any extreme warmth or cold by the looks of it so far!!

[Nouska]

45 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Shame we can't see further ahead with this model as 162hrs would be interesting... Easterly incoming possibly??

This was the UKMO 168 hour chart from today's 00Z run.

They don't always update if there are no tropical systems but no harm in checking after about 8pm to see if the 12Z run has been added.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/