Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2016/17

[Bryan Bourner]

Almost all of the encouraging signs from various runs yesterday seem to have been snatched away today... please just snow!

[carinthian]

14 hours ago, J10 said:

My first proper blog of the season has been published.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7842;sess=

It is a new style and thoughts are more than welcome.

 

Well presented J. Hope you right about the Austrian Snow !

[Blessed Weather]

Some snippets from an article in Le Dauphine newspaper about the lack of snow in the French Alps, and in particular how this is impacting the Christmas & New Year holiday period:

.....an average drop in bookings of almost 12% for the holidays. Nearly one bed out of two will be empty.....
.....the fourth consecutive winter that the massifs begin these celebrations with very low snow.
.....A narrow strip of interior massifs escapes this deficit which impacts 90% of the Alps. One can ski and rather well in certain sectors bordering with Italy such as Haute Maurienne (Savoie), Queyras and Briançonnais (Hautes-Alpes). Vars is 75% open and 100% in Val Thorens.

The article also contained some info from the French 'Snow Studies Center' who use the resort of Col de Porte (1,328m) as a reference in tracking long-term changes:

This series of four winters beginning with little or no snow is historic. Since the sixties, we have lost a month of snow in the season. What is unprecedented is that we would have two years in a row without a snowfall in December.

Full article in French: http://www.ledauphine.com/environnement/2016/12/15/un-noel-sous-le-signe-du-rechauffement

Edited December 17, 2016 by Blessed Weather

[Ravelin]

6 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Some welcome snowfall for Austria on Sunday evening into Monday morning; maybe a dusting further west into Switzerland. Amounts not much, but it's better than nothing and will at least cover the green and brown landscape and make the mountains look pretty!

Hopefully some where I'm going too as the snow sites are showing a few cm, varying in exact timing but centered around Tuesday. As you say, probably just enough to make the landscape look white rather than amounts that will make a difference to the pistes. I'll take that though, beats white artificial corridors in a brown landscape.

I was jokingly showing my wife a forecast for Serre Chevalier for 73 cm on 29th Dec. Now I know that's so far out its likely to change or disappear entirely on the next update. On the one hand I'd love to be in the resort when it dumps like that, on the other hand it could make skiing that day difficult or impossible. A real quandary.

Edited December 17, 2016 by Ravelin

[minus 9]

Looks to be an area of precipitation heading into central Austria later, let's hope it doesn't fizzle  out when it comes up against the mountains. Maybe ten cm in places. Anything is better than nothing. 

[Norrona2015]

BBC Weather - winter sports 16th December:

European Weather Outlook

Following a period of cloud and snow in Austria, the weather is set to return to sun for most of the week ahead. Temperatures are forecast to be between freezing and 5C for the most part, and skiing is likely to be confined largely to the groomed pistes. 

In Switzerland and France not much has changed in terms of the current weather outlook, with much of the week ahead set to stay the same. There is some good news though, snow is in the long term forecast, but we will keep an eye on this to see how things progress as the week goes on. 

Across Italy the skies were largely cloudy. However, like much of Europe, it is unlikely that this will deliver any snow in the short term forecast. 

Good news for Scotland: Friday 16 December is forecast to bring snow to the mountains in the east. This won't be enough to get any skiing under way, but should it arrive, it is at least a positive start.

North American Weather Outlook

The snowfalls and storm cycles are set to continue across the bulk of the American resorts. The accumulations are steady, ranging up to 20cm per day. 

Finally things are going to pick up in the Pacific North West and Californian resorts this weekend. Squaw and Heavenly should expect almost a metre of new snow by the weekend followed immediately by two days of clear sunny skies. The weekend is also shaping up to be fantastic in Utah and Montana, with snow falls on Friday of around half a metre for most resorts. 

In the east things also looking great with daily accumulations of around 10cm set to continue into next week. 

Over the border in Canada it seems the early season storm cycle has finally come to an end. Resorts in British Columbia can expect sunshine throughout this week. 

The next storm cycle is already showing on long range forecasts however, with fresh storms rolling in from around 19 December. In the far east Mont Sainte Anne is getting its first real snow falls of the seasons with accumulations of almost half a metre by the weekend.

[Blessed Weather]

Now we're in range of the high resolution models I thought I would 'home in' on the snow event that @J10 mentioned in his excellent blog for the forthcoming week in the Alps - namely the Low Pressure over Italy and the Med that edges north. This looks like bring substantial snowfall to Italian resorts in particular, but hopefully spilling over into western French resorts and southern Swiss resorts.

First of all the GFS 850 hPa and Precipitation charts for Tues 20th Dec:

Then zooming in on the high res charts for Italy:

NMM Precip on 20th  Accum Precip to Wed

Arpege Precip on 20th  Accum Precip to Wed

The Netweather Alps charts show more clearly that western French and southern Swiss resorts my get in on the snowfall (for instance, Les Deux Alpes is forecast 9 cm):

Precip 20th   Freezing Level

And finally the forecast for Sauze d'Oulx showing up to 44 cm of snowfall over Mon & Tues:

@Norrona2015 where did the BBC get their forecast from for Italy?

 

[Norrona2015]

Morning Malcolm,

Quite a difference between the BBC forecast for Italy and that of Snow-forecast.com, so thanks for flagging that up.Hoping that the later proves correct as one of  the possible destinations for the 7th January trip is in Italy.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Sestriere/6day/mid

As for the BBC going with snow for the eastern Scottish mountains on Friday, there was certainly no snow as I drove through the Lecht ski centre yesterday enroute to Aviemore.The mountains around Cairngorm did appear to have had a recent dusting but they're still a long way from being in a position to open for business.

[Ravelin]

6 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

And finally the forecast for Sauze d'Oulx showing up to 44 cm of snowfall over Mon & Tues:

Funnily enough when we were looking to book our ski holiday I'd considered Sauze but edged in favour of Serre Chevalier. In main because the snow record early season at Sauze wasn't as good because it tends to pick up snow from the East and is in the shadow for systems arriving from the West. This season so far I think most snow has come from the east (Mediterranean lows) and the Italian Alp resorts have done relatively well. 

[Blessed Weather]

17 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Funnily enough when we were looking to book our ski holiday I'd considered Sauze but edged in favour of Serre Chevalier. In main because the snow record early season at Sauze wasn't as good because it tends to pick up snow from the East and is in the shadow for systems arriving from the West. This season so far I think most snow has come from the east (Mediterranean lows) and the Italian Alp resorts have done relatively well. 

Oh dear, I bet you're kicking yourself. But I don't think you should! I believe you set off on the 27th? Well from what I can see, things aren't too bad in Serre Chevalier at the mo, with good skiing on the higher slopes, a forecast of 9 cms of snow this coming week, and Meteo France extended forecast suggesting largely sunny by day and sub-zero by night for your week. Chin up - you'll have a great time!!

Today  snow-forecast.com coming week mid-mountain

Meteo France forecast 25th - 31st Dec

[Ravelin]

5 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Oh dear, I bet you're kicking yourself. But I don't think you should! I believe you set off on the 27th? Well from what I can see, things aren't too bad in Serre Chevalier at the mo, with good skiing on the higher slopes, a forecast of 9 cms of snow this coming week, and Meteo France extended forecast suggesting largely sunny by day and sub-zero by night for your week. Chin up - you'll have a great time!!

Not despondent in the slightest. Looks like plenty enough open to keep us occupied and there's plenty of time for more snow to appear before we get there. The 9cm or so start of this week was only showing as 2cm a couple of days ago after all. Also, when you book months ahead its always pot luck, and compared to other resorts I think we'll do alright. 

Getting excited now. 

[Blessed Weather]

I like the fighting spirit of the French resort of Saint Sorlin d'Arve. Despite being at a very reasonable 1,600m altitude there wasn't enough snow on the village piste front, including the nursery slope - so they've brought in more snow by lorry!

Saint-Sorlin-d'Arves: the snow arrives by trucks
The trucks have arrived all day to satisfy the first vacationers.
In front of the desperately blue sky, the lift company of Saint-Sorlin-d'Arves, covers the beginner space and the piste front with the snow reserve that had been produced at Plan-du-Moulin, a few hundred meters away, in a colder area of the resort. Trucks filled with beautiful white snow should be able to allow children to enjoy themselves today, and ski instructors to work. White gold has never been so well named.

Full story in French: http://www.ledauphine.com/savoie/2016/12/17/la-neige-arrive-par-camions

[Blessed Weather]

Slightly off topic - although it is a mountain covered in snow - but I thought you might like to see the following photo of Mt. Cook, NZ, taken by my skiing mate who is on holiday over there at the moment. Lucky bloke!!

[Bryan Bourner]

 Nice to see a little dusting on the Web cams today. 

[Reefseeker]

4 hours ago, Bryan Bourner said:

 Nice to see a little dusting on the Web cams today. 

Yes indeed, Les Arcs got a smattering, and the roof tops on the webcam at Clocher have a nice dusting.

Edit: light snow now falling at Clocher.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Reefseeker

[Paul]

This is quite a cool video - the effort that goes into the snowmaking, piste bashing and the like just so we can go for a slide!

 

[durhamgrad]

Very nice to see that Les Arcs is getting a small amount of snow.... still not a much needed dump though!

[J10]

On 17/12/2016 at 09:33, carinthian said:

Well presented J. Hope you right about the Austrian Snow !

 

Sorry, my forecast about the Austrian snow looks a bit of a bust forecast. The snow looks further west than forecasted, and drying out sooner too.

 

[gareth moo]

The ladies GS World Cup race from Courcheval 1850 on Monday made the resort look like it does in May! Looking at the models, I can't see anything fresh within the next 6-7 days either with high pressure not just lingering but maybe building again. It's going to be a tough couple of busy weeks for the big resorts in Savoie and Isere.

[Blessed Weather]

A glimmer of hope for early January?? This from fergieweather in the Model thread this morning:

"Latest DECIDER products lean to increased risk of NW'ly flow early into New Year; equal chances of high cell being centred over France or W of Ireland by that stage."

Link to fergie's quote: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86783-model-output-discussion-5th-december-2016-into-winter-we-go/?do=findComment&comment=3498049

Let's hope the 'W of Ireland' option wins out. As if to order, this morning's GFS 6z showing the high centred there on 3rd January with resultant PM flow giving copious snowfall for the Alps:

[minus 9]

Let's hope so. I'm going to solden on the 15th of jan. It's been absolute torture watching the models the last four weeks. Maybe some light snow to the northern alps on the weekend, not much though. 

[Blessed Weather]

The glimmer of hope continues with this morning's GFS 0z run. In fact it's even better than yesterday's effort. A long way to go, but I for one (setting off on 8th Jan) really hope this is a consistent trend developing.

This morning charts for 4th to 6th Jan - lot's of snow from this set-up and the -10C 850 hPa isotherm making an appearance over the Alps.

EDIT: And the 06z run is just as good! This is encouraging!

Edited December 22, 2016 by Blessed Weather
Added 06z comment.

[carinthian]

Morning from a sun drenched Austrian Alps. Snow blowers on first thing this morning on the Northern Slopes. Now the temp is rising above 0c at most levels. Not seen any clouds since Monday morning ! Crazy Euro high here for Christmas. The runs are in good shape but will be worn after the next 5 days. So hopefully, snow will be back on the agenda come the New Year. Anyway, still lots coming out on Saturday for the festive Frolics. I think its going to be beer and sitting in the sunshine this year. Cheers to that !

 C

[durhamgrad]

Definitely starting to look up on the models and  I agree that the next week is going to be an interesting one for the big French resorts.  Les arcs for example looks to have a freezing level of above 2000m most nights, with the Christmas day/night freezing levels above 3000m.  My fingers are well and truly crossed.

[johnholmes]

This link gives the races for men results so far

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Alpine_Skiing_World_Cup#Calendar

this is the link to the Lauberhorn site Wengen. The articial snow at the finish looks good enough but nothing in the village. Exchanging e mails with the owner of the hotel I go to and she says the Lauberhorn will be opened for visitors this weekend-not sure they usually do this but skiing otherwise is very restricted in the Jungfrau regio. Fingers crossed it improves in early january before I go.

Good luck to everyone due out over Christmas and New Year for your resort.

http://www.lauberhorn.ch/en/Livecam

 

Edited December 22, 2016 by johnholmes