Autumn - general chat, banter, moans and ramps

[Paul]

A new thread to take us through the remainder of autumn, for all those general bits and pieces, moans and ramps which perhaps don't fit into the other threads. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'm quite liking this Autumn so far. We had a very warm September (not necessarily my cup of tea, but was fascinating from a statistical standpoint) and a very dry October dominated by easterly winds, and some of the best Autumnal colours on the leaves I've seen for a few years. Would have liked some frost here, though there's still time with November still to come and some more fog (had some this morning though and again November may provide). Maybe even some late Autumn snow in November may be possible (time will tell). It's undoubtedly been the best Autumn so far since 2012 though.

[Mapantz]

First proper fog of the Autumn here! It looks like lasting until mid-morning tomorrow, love a bit of thick fog.

[Guest]

very foggy here this morning... fantastic autumn colours here currently... getting very excited for the upcoming season... been fascinating watching the NH modles the last few weeks... the amount of WAA heading to the pole the complete lack of vortex in its normal place.. could we be on the cusp of something special this winter??

[cheeky_monkey]

has been a remarkably dry October thus far where I am and the models don't show that changing

[moorlander]

No moans from me about this October, unexpected yes but very enjoyable.

No horrible westerly flow bringing rain day after day, going out for long walks seeing all the colour changes as Autumn progresses in dry conditions has been fantastic this year.

First decent fog day yesterday more to come over the next month, still waiting for my first ground frost but plenty of time for that. 

 

[MP-R]

Quite similar comments to moorlander from me. This October has been very pleasant though it's been trying not putting the heating on yet. Plenty of sunshine (this month has been sunnier than September!) and only occasional rain. Sadly I was away for the weekend during the convective spell on the 15th-16th but had a taste of autumn Atlanticness on the 17th. Other than that, plenty of usable benign weather and the colours are brilliant. Even had fog last night and this morning. Just need a frost now.

[cheshire snow]

Yestetday morning had to get the ice scraper on the car.

Windscreen was iced over,hopefully first of many 

C.S

[white crimbo]

A reminder what snow looks like. Be interesting to see this one in a week or two. 

http://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/lombardia/sondrio/ski-area-bormio.html

[snowtimenow]

Just spotted 2 ladybirds in the garden, is it normal to see them late October? I know there's some mild weather on its way  

[reef]

We're getting the west's normal weather this month with these constant easterlies!

We're on nearly 150% of the monthly average rainfall and it has been duller than average. It has also rained for 22 out of 27 days this month so far.

Still, after last Autumn/winter I don't begrudge those in the west having such a dry month. That can only be a good thing as the water table will be low for the start of 'winter'.

 

[Frost HoIIow]

On ‎26‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 13:57, snowtimenow said:

Just spotted 2 ladybirds in the garden, is it normal to see them late October? I know there's some mild weather on its way  

Not sure it's too late to see them but one flew onto my jacket the other day.

[Terminal Moraine]

On 27/10/2016 at 18:08, reef said:

We're getting the west's normal weather this month with these constant easterlies!

We're on nearly 150% of the monthly average rainfall and it has been duller than average. It has also rained for 22 out of 27 days this month so far.

Still, after last Autumn/winter I don't begrudge those in the west having such a dry month. That can only be a good thing as the water table will be low for the start of 'winter'.

 

Almost the opposite here even though I'm on the eastern side of the Peak District ( though obviously a long way from the coast) Rainfall for October is currently 34% of average with 14 rain days out of 28. Sunshine is slightly below average with just under 58 hours so far. Buxton, about 20 miles to my north west has recorded over 72 hours of sunshine so far this month.

[Mapantz]

8 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

Not sure if right thread to ask but does anyone know where I can find daily averages for my nearest MetO official weather station, if they are even available?   Thanks

hi vizzy - I replied here as to not clog the CET thread up

I used this: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gbyxgmvts

Either pick a station that is close to you, or use a regional average. I went with the regional average to pit my stats against. Bournemouth and Swanage are both 9 miles from me, but Swanage tends to be warmer than here during Winter months, and cooler in the Summer, but Bournemouth tends to get higher temps in Summer and lower temps in Winter, so that's the reason why I went with a region instead.

Hope that helps?!

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

hi vizzy - I replied here as to not clog the CET thread up

I used this: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gbyxgmvts

Either pick a station that is close to you, or use a regional average. I went with the regional average to pit my stats against. Bournemouth and Swanage are both 9 miles from me, but Swanage tends to be warmer than here during Winter months, and cooler in the Summer, but Bournemouth tends to get higher temps in Summer and lower temps in Winter, so that's the reason why I went with a region instead.

Hope that helps?!

Hi mate thanks for the reply, I've used those maps to work out roughly my monthly CET mean between 1981-2010 for my location.

However I am interested in daily mean temps, for example I have estimated that November CET mean is 6.8c for my location, but obviously it is likely to be warmer to start the month (8-9c) and then cooler towards the end of the month (5-6c) which would obviously balance the month out to finishing value around 6.8c.

I was just wondering if there was any data out there to show daily averages throughout the year, the MetO will obviously have this data for there stations, but I find whats available fairly limited.

Cheers bro.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mmm, just wonder as soon as we reach snow possible time of year, our weather pattern will be back to normal? like snow seasons of last 16-17 years

Edited October 31, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Day 10]

25 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

mmm, just wonder as soon as we reach snow possible time of year, our weather pattern will be back to normal? like snow seasons of last 16-17 years

I know winter hasn't even started yet and things have looked far better going into winter for a cold one. But I really hope to god we are not left chasing day 10 charts all bloody winter like the last 2! I really must learn to not start winter model watching until winter! I'm knackered from the last 2 years of hopeless chasing. Perhaps it's just because it's early Monday morning, a better frame of mind after work I hope. Just one real "COLD SPELL" will suffice. PLEASE!!!

[white crimbo]

For those on lower ground evaporative cooling could possibly herald a surprise or two over the next few days. Very marginal if not borderline with regards to plain old cold rain, sleet, wet snow and maybe just a sleety mix or of course any snow itself. Higher up probably fairing better which is no surprise this early in the season. 

[Azazel]

It's been great so far - and this coming from a mildie. Some beautiful Autumn colours on display, cold, crisp nights and mornings and very little precipitation. Anything beats the last two Autumn/Winters with their endless weeks of 13 degrees, gales, grey and lashing rain.

[Seasonal Trim]

Forgive me for if I'm just mis-reading things here, but when is this (proper) cold spell suppose to materialize? I'm not very good at reading the models so I'm counting on people explaining in the model thread what is showing. So far we were looking towards the beginning of November (Bonfire night if I remember correctly), then around the 10th, and then the 17th and now it's December!

Are people just getting carried away or are we actually going to get a cold spell appear? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

Forgive me for if I'm just mis-reading things here, but when is this (proper) cold spell suppose to materialize? I'm not very good at reading the models so I'm counting on people explaining in the model thread what is showing. So far we were looking towards the beginning of November (Bonfire night if I remember correctly), then around the 10th, and then the 17th and now it's December!

Are people just getting carried away or are we actually going to get a cold spell appear? 

Nov is generally too early in the South for cold, best time for cold setups is Mid Dec to Mid Jan, low sun, lowest daylight hours, but this is usually the most westerly period of the year

[Seasonal Trim]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Nov is generally too early in the South for cold, best time for cold setups is Mid Dec to Mid Jan, low sun, lowest daylight hours, but this is usually the most westerly period of the year

Thanks for the reply. It seems that finally some realism is creeping into the MOD thread. The last few posts have confirmed what I was starting to believe, that we are not going to get any (proper) cold spell anytime soon (down south). Lets just hope that December brings the goods! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

Thanks for the reply. It seems that finally some realism is creeping into the MOD thread. The last few posts have confirmed what I was starting to believe, that we are not going to get any (proper) cold spell anytime soon (down south). Lets just hope that December brings the goods! 

Yes all the 12Z models snowless for the south, average temps mostly, mild mon and tues, only snow is showing for hills of the north, low levels maybe Scotland, from Wed to Sun 20th

[Ravelin]

On 12/11/2016 at 17:55, Nizzer said:

Forgive me for if I'm just mis-reading things here, but when is this (proper) cold spell suppose to materialize? I'm not very good at reading the models so I'm counting on people explaining in the model thread what is showing. So far we were looking towards the beginning of November (Bonfire night if I remember correctly), then around the 10th, and then the 17th and now it's December!

Are people just getting carried away or are we actually going to get a cold spell appear? 

Always take what you read in the MOD thread with a pinch of salt. Anyway, everything is relative. Given that it's not even half way through November, we have already had one cold 'snap', with many places in even lowland Scotland seeing snow. Lecht ski centre was even up and running at the weekend with a few lifts. We're just about odds on now for there to be more snow in Scotland in a few days time (17th or so), so a second cold 'snap'.

Now I'll admit that it's not unusual for the Scottish mountains to see snow in November, but lying low level snow in the first half of the month is a rarity. The CET is also running well below average, despite the current mild 'snap' (13.5C here at 8am this morning).

Of course Scotland is better placed to see the 'benefit' than the South of England, which unfortunately is usually the hardest place to get snow to fall. If we see falling snow in the South of England before the end of the month then that will be something very unusual.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Ravelin

[MP-R]

Let's not get too disheartened by westerly weather in November. In fact, the longest spells of Atlantic weather I've recorded have tended to come between mid October and late December. New Year onwards is when things start to become more variable. Of course, this winter, we may see a role reversal with the Atlantic kicking in in the second half of the winter which would be most unusual.

Lots to be positive about at the moment, just not to be carried away by.