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November 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    Much like autumn as a whole, it's been rather anticyclonic in Scotland which usually produces some deceptively cold average temperatures due to consistently chilly nights. The CET zone has seen quite a few milder incursions (such as today parts have seen an ice day whereas much of the CET zone has averaged 5-8c). I expect a greater discrepancy than normal this month. 

     

    Easily my favourite autumn I've experienced since moving here in 2012. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield 5.9C GFS on the last two runs just show around average temperatures flicking from one side to other on a daily basis so probbaly a slight upward drift from no on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 5.8C. Todays gfs showing a slighter cooler outlook so may fall a bit more if it's correct. I'd reckon final value around 5.4C to 5.8C for us 6.2C to 6.6C in the CET zone.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Have edited in this year now ... the only year to year decreases larger than 3.4 are:

    1818 to 1819 ___ 5.4 (9.5 to 4.1)

    1806 to 1807 ___ 4.9 (7.8 to 2.9)

    1850 to 1851 ___ 4.3 (7.4 to 3.1)

    1951 to 1952 ___ 4.3 (8.5 to 4.2)

    1781 to 1782 ___ 4.2 (6.5 to coldest Nov 2.3)

    1914 to 1915 ___ 4.0 (6.8 to 2.8)

    1984 to 1985 ___ 3.9 (8.0 to 4.1)

    2015 to 2016 ___ 3.9 (9.5 to 5.6) __ tied 7th

    1877 to 1878 ___ 3.6 (7.1 to 3.5)

    1924 to 1925 ___ 3.5 (7.1 to 3.6)

    2009 to 2010 ___ 3.5 (8.7 to 5.2)

    1741 to 1742 ___ 3.4 (7.8 to 4.4)

    (pre-edit comment) ...

    So, 2016 could end up as high as 8th if it drops to 5.8 or 5.7 and tied 7th for 5.6, tied 6th for 5.5 ... that's probably about as low as it can go now. From 6.5 after 21 days, and an average of 4.0, we would get to 5.7 and that might be adjusted down to 5.5. Expect one or two days to struggle with daytime temperatures due to inversion fog or the lingering effects of frost. My best guess at the moment is a 5.7 finish after adjustments. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    You won't get an average of 4C or very unlikely too in the CET zone for several days yet as cloud holds the night time temperatures up. The last three days show very low values and they are way out in FI land so should change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Still believe we will end up below the 61-90 CET mean figure, but possibly only just. There has been a marked north-south divide in mean temps recently. I'd be interested to know what the running mean value for Scotland is currently.. a fair bit below average I suspect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    I would go a little higher than Roger, and as I said several days ago, something around 6.1  would  be the final figure,  5.9 my lowest bet.:cold-emoji::drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    21 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    I would go a little higher than Roger, and as I said several days ago, something around 6.1  would  be the final figure,  5.9 my lowest bet.:cold-emoji::drunk-emoji:

    Does feel as if she's coming into land in the low 6s now ... I see the GFS is starting to smell the coffee with lower nighttime minima under the continental based high. Would be pushed to get lower than 6 I think.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    5.2c to the 22nd here, 1.3c below the 1981-2010 average.

    Somewhere around 5c looks likely for months end here looking at GFS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    No change Sunny Sheffield at 5.8C shouldn't be any change tomorrow unless tonight the skies clear.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    It has been pretty consistent here, still 7.8°C which is 0.6°C above the MetO regional average. :(

    chart.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

    It has been pretty consistent here, still 7.8°C which is 0.6°C above the MetO regional average. :(

    chart.png

    A pretty mild week on the south coast really. Just caught on the milder side of things with regards Storm Angus.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

    Bonjour! I am looking to see if there is any links available which would provide me with average temperature for the current month, preferably Scotland as the last week maybe more the temps have really struggled here in Glasgow with hovering around 3-4 degrees. Any advice would be appreciated.

    Ta

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
    52 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

    Bonjour! I am looking to see if there is any links available which would provide me with average temperature for the current month, preferably Scotland as the last week maybe more the temps have really struggled here in Glasgow with hovering around 3-4 degrees. Any advice would be appreciated.

    Ta

    Best I can do off the top of my head...

    http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3140.html

    Impressively, today it's still sat at -3C, due to fog no doubt as visibility distance is low.

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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs
    54 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

    Bonjour! I am looking to see if there is any links available which would provide me with average temperature for the current month, preferably Scotland as the last week maybe more the temps have really struggled here in Glasgow with hovering around 3-4 degrees. Any advice would be appreciated.

    Ta

    You can get monthly reports here and also news releases here, but these will only appear a few days after the end of the month. I've come across an autoupdating .txt site for the UK's met stations of mean temperatures/rainfall/sunshine etc. for the current month but I haven't saved it. 

     

    Indeed much of Scotland has been very chilly. I think the frequent hard frosts will have made the month even colder than it has seemed. And just as in October, there's been plenty of sunshine and not too much rain in the west. What a tremendous month. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    No change at Sunny Sheffield still at 5.8C cold days offset by milder nights at the moment. May drop tomorrow if we get down to around 3.5C

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    No change 5.8C. As long as it doesn't cloud over round now it will stay same or drop to 5.7C

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Amazingly we are going to get well below average month without a single air frost or just one or two. Scotland should be well down.  I don't think they'll be much of downward adjustment as when it got very mild CET didn't go up at all which seemed wrong to be honest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Still no change for sunny Sheffield at 5.8C  GFS has us finishing at 5.4C which would be -1.4C below normal so I would reckon between 5.4C and 5.6C for us

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