Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

November 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 6.5C just -0.3C below normal.

    The 6.8C figure seems a bit low as temperatures would have been higher in the CET zone than here so surprised it's hardly changed.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 280
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    My average has rocketed to 7.5°C - 0.3°C above the MetO regional.

    2016-11-16 (2).png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    No change for Sunny Sheffield a cold night cancelling out the mild day so still at 6.5C.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Looking at the model output, we may well hit the highest CET value of the month tomorrow, before a slight climb down for the foreseeable. Indeed the high mark likely to be no higher than the average 1961-90 mean quite probably. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    Just now, Summer Sun said:

    7.1 to the 17th

    0.1 below the 61 to 90 average

    0.9 below the 81 to 10 average

    Well I think the few of us lucky enough to still be in the CET race will, like me, have very short nails right now! Usually by this time of the month the end CET range is fairly clear, but not so this time...

    it looks pretty clear that the next 6/7 days will be coolish, and I would imagine the CET will be between 6.2C and 6.5C by 24th November. After that, I see three main possibilities:

    1. A cool high covers the UK before a northerly influence takes over again. This would probably result in a final CET of between 5.5C and 6C. (50% chance IMO)

    2. High pressure is replaced by a temporary westerly at the high collapses, and then another brief NWly as an Atlantic depression passes through. Final CET between 6C and 6.5C (30% chance)

    3. (the one I fear but others reading this are probably praying for!) The trough over Iberia remains the major influence and reinforces WAA over Europe as far as the UK for another period at the end of the month. Final CET in this case anywhere from 6.5C to 7.5C. I'd say 20% chance only. But it's still possible!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    You've forgot possibility 4.  The Mid-Trough and Eurotrash High return to bring back Tropical Maritime Southwesterlies.  Final CET from 7C to 8C!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Absolutely amazed just how quickly the CET has shot up over a not particularly mild looking (synoptically) 3/4 days. It shows just how easily we get max day/night temps above average compared to cold ones (anomaly wise). Maybe exacerbated by the warm SST's?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Absolutely amazed just how quickly the CET has shot up over a not particularly mild looking (synoptically) 3/4 days. It shows just how easily we get max day/night temps above average compared to cold ones (anomaly wise). Maybe exacerbated by the warm SST's?

    eh??? they were some very mild uppers on the runs. Anyways the latest GFS shows some mild weather again so could well get a surprising above average month just. All depends on where the 2nd low actually goes.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 6.3C -0.4C below normal.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    5 hours ago, The PIT said:

    eh??? they were some very mild uppers on the runs. Anyways the latest GFS shows some mild weather again so could well get a surprising above average month just. All depends on where the 2nd low actually goes.

    Absolutely no chance of an above average  finish . imo.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest GFS would have the CET hovering around 6.5C from the 20th through to the 28th.
    I'll try find the time for a more detailed update later today.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 6.2C

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    13 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Absolutely no chance of an above average  finish . imo.

    Not on the 06oz run but the yesterdays 12oz showed a good chance. Still a lot of uncertainty on the track of the second low. A few runs ago we had a chance of having an average autumn over all temperature wise with this month effectively canceling out September but that isn't on the cards at the moment. Plenty of chopping and changing yet.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Minimum today is 1.7C while maxima were around the mid to high 6s, so a drop to 6.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

    After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

    6.6C to the 20th (4.2: -2.0)
    6.5C to the 21st (4.7: -1.1)
    6.6C to the 22nd (6.9: +1.2)
    6.5C to the 23rd (5.9: +0.1)
    6.5C to the 24th (5.3: -0.6)
    6.5C to the 25th (6.5: +0.2)
    6.5C to the 26th (7.0: +0.8)
    6.5C to the 27th (6.1: +0.1)
    6.5C to the 28th (6.9: +1.1)

    Going on after the 5 day forecast, the likely upper and lower range based on previous years is now 6.9C and 5.3C, with the average of the last 30 years giving a final value of 6.5C

    DTwGxvH.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    5.2c here to the 19th, 1.3c below the 1981-2010 average.

    No real cold/mild signal over the coming days so likely to not change much.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 6.1C -0.7C below normal. Should be a slow drop according to the GFS for next week but nothing drastic.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Inversions at this time of year can produce unexpectedly cold days, a finish in the high 5's not off the table if one or two days mid-week turn out very cold as I suspect they might. Don't be too surprised if a day like Wed 23rd averages 0 to 1 C.

    Estimate that after about 6.8 through today, average of 4.5 brings us down to 6.0 then that might drop to 5.8 with corrections.

    December looking very tantalizing and thread is open for your December forecasts. 

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    28 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Inversions at this time of year can produce unexpectedly cold days, a finish in the high 5's not off the table if one or two days mid-week turn out very cold as I suspect they might. Don't be too surprised if a day like Wed 23rd averages 0 to 1 C.

    Estimate that after about 6.8 through today, average of 4.5 brings us down to 6.0 then that might drop to 5.8 with corrections.

    December looking very tantalizing and thread is open for your December forecasts. 

     

    Yesterday I posted a final figure of 6.1, but will be happy with 5.9:drunk-emoji:

    As for December..:cold-emoji: but by how much..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...