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November 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts


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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    No change sunny Sheffield due to a mild night should rise all next week. Only on Friday does cool air return. I don't think it'll be mild enough for us to reach average values but it certain Sunny Sheffield will be back over 6C.

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  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    That's pretty chilly for the first third of November. Possibly the coolest first third to November since 1980

    I checked and indeed 1980 (4.2) was the only colder first third of November since three in a row (1966 to 1968) were slightly colder than this year (5.5, 5.6, 5.4). Since 1980 the colder values were 6.0 in 1988 and 6.4 in 2012, 6.5 in 2006.

    The average for this period was 6.7 from 1772 to 1891 and had risen only to 6.9 by 1931, but then has increased to 7.4 by 2015.

    The frequency of years colder than this year was almost half the data in the first two thirds of the daily data period (1772 to 1931).

    The four coldest periods were 2.4 in 1782, and three tied at 3.6 (1791,1896,1919).

    1980 was the coldest value since 1919 and ranked 7th coldest behind the four already mentioned and 1786 (3.9) and 1864 (4.0).

    The bottom ten and ties are rounded out with 8th coldest 1812 (4.3) and tied 9th coldest 1810, 1826, 1860, 1878, 1880, 1910 (all at 4.4).

    Between 1919 and 1980 the only other first thirds of November to run below 5.0 were 1934 (4.7) and 1941 (4.8). 

    In 1782 (the coldest) the ten days ran as follows ... 

    2.1, 3.1, 5.3, 2.6, 2.4, 0.9, 0.5, 2.0, 1.5, 3.1

    and that month ended up the coldest November at 2.3 C -- the middle third was milder then the last ten days turned very cold, there were six days that were below zero for mean CET. 

    In the first of the tied second coldest first ten days of November (1791) we also find the earliest subzero mean CET (-0.6 on 7th). The cold was not as sustained that year, mean values of 6.0 were recorded on both 9th and 10th.

    For 1896, the coldest portion was 4th to 7th with mean readings near 2 C. 

    Then in 1919 the cold was sustained, showing up with 1.8 on 4th, failing to warm beyond 5.0 and dropping to very cold values from the 11th to 16th (average was -0.3) making this the coldest first half of November at 2.3 C. Second coldest first half was then 1782 at 2.9 C. In 1980 the mid-November mean was 5.1 but that was still the coldest since 1944 at the same value.

    In the first third of Nov 1980 the coldest day was the 3rd at 2.1 C. The generally cold first half in 1980 was replaced by very mild weather from 15th to 24th which averaged 11.2 C. The month then ended with some much colder days near 2 C again.

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  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
    19 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    That's pretty chilly for the first third of November. Possibly the coolest first third to November since 1980

    Yet 1980 finished slightly above average at 6.6C.  There is every chance we could beat that warm up this year.  If November 2016 proves average, mild or even very mild (yet again) then its very likely that April 2016 will remain the only remotely cool month post September 2015, at least for this year.

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  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    1 hour ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

    Yet 1980 finished slightly above average at 6.6C.  There is every chance we could beat that warm up this year.  If November 2016 proves average, mild or even very mild (yet again) then its very likely that April 2016 will remain the only remotely cool month post September 2015, at least for this year.

    You forgot to add 'hot'  in  your list of ifs Craig.:D

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  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    4.4c to the 11th, 2.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

    The warm up begins today but looking at GFS it may not last long with a cold PM shot for next weekend.

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  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Mine has crept up quite a bit over the last few days..

    2016-11-12.png

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  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Minimum today is 3.2C, while maxima look like getting close to 11C, so an increase to 5.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

    After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

    6.0C to the 13th (7.3: +0.1)
    6.2C to the 14th (8.4: +1.6)
    6.5C to the 15th (10.9: +4.1)
    6.7C to the 16th (8.9: +2.1)
    6.6C to the 17th (6.2: -0.2)
    6.5C to the 18th (4.7: -2.0)
    6.3C to the 19th (2.1: -4.3)
    6.1C to the 20th (2.8: -3.4)
    6.1C to the 21st (5.9: +0.1)

    A mild few days coming up, before turning much cooler toward next weekend.

    Using the provisional CET, the forecast for the next 5 days and data from all previous years, the upper 90% is 7.3C while the lower 90% is 5.0C, while following the average of the last 30 years would leave us on 6.5C before corrections.

    2zPPT5z.png

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 5.4C

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 5.6C today and tonight look set to take it up to 6.1C so should be close to average by Wednesday. Thursday and Friday look like bringing it back down a little again.

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  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    5.0c to the 14th here, 1.5c below the 1981-2010 average.

    Expecting one more rise tonight before it starts to fall again towards the weekend.

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Called it right Sunny Sheffield at 6.1C should be 6.4C Tomorrow.

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  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The current 12z GFS run turns quite cold after tomorrow and on only one or two days does it even get back up to normal values so assuming that it runs an average of -1.5 (relative to 1981-2010) then the end of the month value would likely be about 5.8 C since we are also likely to be near -1.5 by tomorrow. By about Tuesday of next week I would expect the running average to be near that figure (5.8) and after that it would go up slightly then back down again. 

    The strong low coming in on Sunday brings very little warmth along for the ride and could drop snow on higher parts of Wales and northern England. The flow tries to back around to southeast with a mid-week low from Biscay region, but these latest maps seem to be cutting that down to a very modest uptick for a day or two then back to colder easterly flow, although nothing extreme is indicated.

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  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
    6 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    The current 12z GFS run turns quite cold after tomorrow and on only one or two days does it even get back up to normal values so assuming that it runs an average of -1.5 (relative to 1981-2010) then the end of the month value would likely be about 5.8 C since we are also likely to be near -1.5 by tomorrow. By about Tuesday of next week I would expect the running average to be near that figure (5.8) and after that it would go up slightly then back down again. 

    The strong low coming in on Sunday brings very little warmth along for the ride and could drop snow on higher parts of Wales and northern England. The flow tries to back around to southeast with a mid-week low from Biscay region, but these latest maps seem to be cutting that down to a very modest uptick for a day or two then back to colder easterly flow, although nothing extreme is indicated.

    Roger ..

    I have always thought that the  GFS was the most accurate forecast model for easterlies!!!!:pardon::nonono:

    5.8C will be very good, thank you for your synopsis.

    MIA

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Well at the moment is going to be difficult to predict the final figure. ECM toasty in FI GFS totally opposite.

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  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    7 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    Well at the moment is going to be difficult to predict the final figure. ECM toasty in FI GFS totally opposite.

    Still  happy with my figure.

    :drunk-emoji:

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  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    24 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Still  happy with my figure.

    :drunk-emoji:

    Not too sure - high pressure overhead could give notably cold minima and possible fog which at this time of year is very slow to clear. I don't see how the CET can get back above average based on current model output, indeed I'd say a 70% chance we will end up below the 61-90 average based on today's model runs, and perhaps a 20% chance we could end up with a notably cold November perhaps even colder than 2010. The safe betting though would go with a CET end figure just a littlebelow the 61-90 mean.

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  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Not too sure - high pressure overhead could give notably cold minima and possible fog which at this time of year is very slow to clear. I don't see how the CET can get back above average based on current model output, indeed I'd say a 70% chance we will end up below the 61-90 average based on today's model runs, and perhaps a 20% chance we could end up with a notably cold November perhaps even colder than 2010. The safe betting though would go with a CET end figure just a littlebelow the 61-90 mean.

    I  predicted 5.9.. Happy with that.

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  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    5.4c mean so far after the half way stage, 1.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

    Small rise likely tonight but as of tomorrow the daily mean temp for the next 5 days looks to be around 3/4c so dropping back down accordingly.

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