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November 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    I think I've got this well wrong.  ECM showing very interesting development.  In my mind was lots of blocking and second week a strong South Scandinavia block bringing mild conditions to us. I lowered my projection as Oct proved somewhat chillier. Nov could turn out in the cold to darn cold category.

    In the model thread Big Steve Murr has beat the drum of ECM being on the money.  I think now after the 12z run it is.  So

    Week 1 - we now see the pattern

    Week 2.- trough disruption with cold Se/E/NE winds with Scandinavia HP holding

    week 3 - Deep LP possible lobe of PV displaced near us but Scandinavian HP to hold or relax?  I think this will be a theme . PV is going to try to form and Nov is pivotal month for that but the hemispheric pattern and deep cold/ strong Siberian High will prevent an organised PV to take hold this winter. So for me it will show its head no doubt but where and what form.  

    Week 4 - Pressure builds north to our west (retrogression) and Greenland Iceland block develops  with trough to our E. being squeezed by that strong east block .......very cold end.

     

    so the theme seems set to be cold as we see the Siberian factor making its early mark on our winter to come. Episodes of displaced polar vortex to come throughout with a propensity of cold blocking to be never far away.

     

    I wish I went nearer 5c

     

    BFTP

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Early doors Fred, but I would agree this November has a cold 'look' about it. Not too worried (atm) with my 5.9.

    I think u look in better shape than me DS

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    would you care for a 30 point penalty, you have 3 hrs to change it......Hang on! that maybe for late comers only ???

    I'm still happy with my chilly 6.0c :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    14 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    would you care for a 30 point penalty, you have 3 hrs to change it......Hang on! that maybe for late comers only ???

    I'm still happy with my chilly 6.0c :cold:

    Ditto!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    I'm not worried about winning, I'm working on reverse psychology still. I go high, mother nature goes lower. I go low, she goes higher... I reckoned at 6.5  I had the whip hand!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    7.9c to the 3rd

    1.0 below the 61 to 90 average

    1.3 below the 81 to 10 average

    Its 7.2 to the 3rd not 7.9:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Strong likelihood we will see a below average return against the rolling 61-90 average come mid month, but perhaps not significantly so, with an expected rise in the CET come middle of next week. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Min today is 4.6C while maxima were around 10C, so a slight chance of increasing to 7.3C on tomorrows update, though we may well remain on 7.2C.

    After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

    6.9C to the 5th (5.6: -2.7)
    6.6C to the 6th (4.8: -3.4)
    6.2C to the 7th (4.2: -4.1)
    5.9C to the 8th (3.3: -5.4)
    5.9C to the 9th (5.8: -2.3)
    6.0C to the 10th (7.5: -0.4)
    6.3C to the 11th (8.9: +0.6)
    6.8C to the 12th (11.9: +3.7)
    7.2C to the 13th (12.2: +5.0)

    The GFS has things remaining on the cool side until the 10th, before quickly warming toward mid month.

    nbWbZ5e.png

    Using just the first 3 days provisional values, the upper and lower 90% range based on all previous years falls between about 4.8C and 7.8C.

    kstJbHf.png

    Using the forecast for today and the next 4 days, the upper and lower 90% range based on all previous years falls between about 4.3C and 7.3C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 6.7C

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 6.3C

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    CET could drop to below 6.5 degrees by Wednesday, making for a rather cold start to November, thereafter, it looks like stalling somewhat close to seasonal average in the run up to mid month point.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    There was a cold start to November 4 years ago.

    And every month including november was below average all the way until mid summer july.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    5.5C to the 5th here, 1.0C below the 1981-2010 average.

    Further drops look likely in the coming days before a rise later in the week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 5.4C -1.4C below normal.  Today will cause another drop whi9ch will be the low point of the month more likely than not. Next week may see some very mild weather so that could cancel this cold spell out altogether if it turns up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    4.9c to the 8th here which is 1.6c below the 1981-2010 average.

    Todays mean is looking like being between 1 to 1.5c so a large drop on for tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    A couple of notably cold CET days yesterday and today for the time of year, helping to send the CET down to a very low mark against the rolling 61-90 average at this stage in November. Quite possible though we will hit the lowest point come tomorrow, as values look set to rise somewhat over the next week, with some quite high levels possible early on next week, largely thanks to very mild minima, whilst maxima won't be that far off the average. Could be a month with three distinct thirds, a notably cold first third, a much milder middle third, and an average at best latter third (with good potential for a colder than average one), end result most likely average at best, with the odds probably 70% on a colder than average month. It is looking like November will end up with a bit of everything, and a much more interesting month than we have seen for quite sometime, we've had many tedious mind numbingly benign months recently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 5.2C a mild night preventing a bigger drop.  So an impressive -1.6C below normal if we get a cold night tonight should drop again tomorrow.  Next week looking very mild so all this cold snap should be canceled out.

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