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November 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts


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  • Location: Ashurst, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, fog in winter. Warm & dry and thunderstorms in summer
  • Location: Ashurst, West Sussex

    6.3C please :-)

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  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    5.5c for me please.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

    6.4C please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2015 extremes

    ______________________________________________________

     

    Date ____ CET mean __ CET cum ____ MAX _________ MIN

     

    01 Nov ___ 9.5 ______ 9.5 ________ 13.5 (1894,1982) __1.5 (1836)
    02 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.5 (1880)
    03 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.9 (1820)
    04 Nov ___ 8.5 ______ 9.0 ________ 14.2 (1946) ______ 0.8 (1845&1848)
    05 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ________ 15.4 (1938) ______ 0.8 (1802)

    06 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ________ 14.3 (2015) ______ 0.6 (1868) __ was 13.4 (1772)
    07 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.8 (2015) _____ -0.6 (1791) __ was 13.3 (1772)
    08 Nov ___ 8.7 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1852) _____ -1.2 (1812)
    09 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ________ 12.5 (1988) _____ -0.5 (1921)
    10 Nov ___ 7.9 ______ 8.6 ________ 13.4 (1977) ______ 0.1 (1812) __ 13.3 (2015) almost

    11 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.9 (2015) ______ 0.3 (1828) __ was 13.0 (2005)
    12 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ -1.4 (1919)
    13 Nov ___ 7.2 ______ 8.4 ________ 14.6 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1862)
    14 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.3 ________ 13.4 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1925)
    15 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.2 ________ 13.5 (1821) _____ -2.1 (1965)

    16 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.1 ________ 13.4 (1997) _____ -2.9 (1901)
    17 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 8.0 ________ 13.1 (1997) _____ -2.0 (1841)
    18 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.2 (1978) _____ -1.6 (1887)
    19 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.7 (1994) _____ -2.1 (1815)
    20 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.8 ________ 12.8 (2009) _____ -1.2 (1829)

    21 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.7 ________ 13.7 (1947) _____ -1.4 (1880)
    22 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.6 ________ 14.4 (1947) _____ -2.3 (1773)
    23 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.5 ________ 13.3 (1947) _____ -4.2 (1858)
    24 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.7 (1980) _____ -4.6 (1904)
    25 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.1 (1964) _____ -1.5 (1923)

    26 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ________ 12.1 (1983) _____ -1.7 (1904)
    27 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ________ 11.3 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1915)
    28 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.0 (1828) _____ -4.0 (2010)
    29 Nov ___ 5.5 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.2 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1801)
    30 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.1 ________ 12.4 (2001) _____ -1.7 (1973)

    _________________________________________________________________

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    9.1c to the 1st

    0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

    0.4 below to 81 to 10 average

    I thought the averages are 6.6°C and 7.1°C respectively, or am I missing something? 

    Edit: or  are they for that specific day? 

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  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    I thought the averages are 6.6°C and 7.1°C respectively, or am I missing something? 

    Edit: or  are they for that specific day? 

    The anomaly is based on the rolling averages. You can see 81-10 values on Roger's post a little up the page.

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  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    The anomaly is based on the rolling averages. You can see 81-10 values on Roger's post a little up the page.

    Thanks :-)

    useful to know. 

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  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The 12z GFS would have the CET at about 3C below the 81-10 average by the 10th.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    5.3C to the 2nd, 1.2C below the 1981-2010 average. Latest GFS looks to keep temps below average untill the 9th, and as BFTV states above by then we could be 3C below average.

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  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    13 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    The 12z GFS would have the CET at about 3C below the 81-10 average by the 10th.

    and that's probably not as cold as the ECM would have it. Considering the way the mean temperature drops during the month of November, it will take quite a mild last two thirds to recover even to average. Can't see it happening.

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  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    I wonder what the biggest July to November, August to November, September to November and October to November cooldowns are?

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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    3 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

    I wonder what the biggest July to November, August to November, September to November and October to November cooldowns are?

    July to November: 1807 (17.1C to 2.9C, 14.2C drop);

    August to November: 1807 (16.9C to 2.9C, 14.0C drop);

    September to November: 1795 (16.0C to 4.5C, 11.5C drop);

    October to November: 1807 (11.4C to 2.9C, 8.5C drop).

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  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    3 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

    I wonder what the biggest July to November, August to November, September to November and October to November cooldowns are?

    I had a look and added a couple that I thought might be of interest (year to year Nov and year to year Dec to Nov, then also year to year Dec to Dec since that one will come up for discussion.

    The top two in each case with mean and minimum thrown in (note that min cooling Oct to Nov was a warming as were min values Nov to Nov and Dec to Nov) ...

     

    MONTH (to Nov) ___ MAX COOLING _______ 2nd MAX ________ mean 1659-2015 ___ MIN

    July ______________ 14.2 (1807 and 1923) ... 17.1 to 2.9 and 17.5 to 3.3 __ 9.9 ___ 5.0 (1817) 14.1 to 9.1

    August ___________ 14.0 (1807, 16.9 to 2.9) _ 13.8 (1871, 17.2 to 3.4) ____ 9.5 ___ 4.5 (1817) 13.6 to 9.1

    September ________ 11.5 (1795, 16.0 to 4.5) _11.2 (1780, 15.6 to 4.4) _____ 7.2 ___ 2.6 (1994) 12.7 to 10.1

    October ___________ 8.5 (1807, 11.4 tp 2.9) __ 8.2 (1921, 12.8 to 4.6) _____ 3.6 ___ ++ 2.7 (1817) 6.4 to 9.1

    previous November __ 5.4 (1819, 9.5 to 4.1) ___ 4.9 (1807, 7.8 to 2.9) ______ 0.0 ___ ++5.5 (1994) 4.6 to 10.1

    previous December __ 3.9 (1807, 6.8 to 2.9) ___ 3.6 (1919, 6.9 to 3.3 _____ +2.0 __ ++10.3 (2011) --0.7 to 9.6

     

    Dec to Dec _________ 7.0 (1844, 7.4 to 0.4) ___ 6.9 (1796, 6.6 to -0.3) _____ 0.0 __ ++6.7 (2011) --0.7 to 6.0

     

    This is what Nov 2016 would need (or Dec 2016 in the last instance) to match these standards:

    MONTH (to Nov) _______ MAX COOLING __ 2nd MAX ___ MIN

    July _________________2.7 _______________  2.7 ______ 11.9

    August ______________ 3.0 ________________ 3.2 ______ 12.5

    September ___________ 4.5 ________________ 4.8 ______ 13.4

    October _____________  2.4 ________________ 2.7 ______ 13.6

    previous November ____ 4.1 ________________ 4.6 ______ 15.0

    previous December ____ 5.8 _________________ 6.1 _____ 19.8

    Dec to Dec ___________ 2.7 (2016) ___________ 2.8 _____ 16.4

    ________________________________________________________________

    Would say that Sept to Nov cooling is in play and certainly previous December to current November.

    Also Dec to Dec would not be a huge ask. 

     

     

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