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November 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    That means i've won then!! Yaayyyy i've never won before. :-) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    5.55c, down from 6.03C, so a whopping .48C drop for November.

    Will probably be tomorrow or the weekend before I have time to post some stats.

     

    Woah!

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    2016......  SEPT MEan CET - Average of (SEPT,OCT and NOV Mean CETs)  =  5.17C

    The first time for 120 years this value comes to over 5C

    In the forty years prior to that it occured 7 times

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Ah, my reverse psychology worked! I went 6.3 and was worried I might actually be quite close. Let's hope my 4.3 guess for December has the same effect on Mother Nature!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    5.6 only 0.2C difference between here and the cet zone. Seems a bit odd that one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

    November 2016 confirmed as 5.55, or 5.6*C rounded up.  This is the coldest November since 2010, and the second coldest for 23 years.  It was also the fifth coldest for 47 years.  Definitely what you would call a cold November.  There were certainly few days in Nov 2016 that saw maximum temperatures over 10*C in many places; only for a few days around mid-month did temps widely reach double figures. 

     

    Autumn 2016 has actually been a back to front version of autumn 2015.  Autumn 2016 had one of the warmest Septembers on record, a slightly above average October, and a below average November.  Whereas autumn 2015 saw a below average September, a slightly above average October, and one of the warmest Novembers on record.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    As expected a notable downward correction this month, quite significant. So a cold November overall and very seasonal feeling, with hard frosts, some light snowfall. I've enjoyed it, complete opposite to last November thankfully.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Of the 30 days this month, 8 days were above the 81-10 average and 22 were below average.

    Of the 14 above average .......................... ..................... Of the 15 below average
    2 were in the top 25 .............................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 25
    0 were in the top 5 .................................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 5
    0 were daily records ............................... .......................... 0 were daily records

    9TRUCBH.png

    The total downward correction in November was -0.48C, from 6.03C to 5.55C. Of the corrections, 24 days saw drops, 5 saw increases and 1 day saw no change.

    SMh0vwW.png

     

    For Autumn, of the 91 days 46 were above the 81-10 average, 43 were below and 2 were equal.

    Of the 46 above average .......................... ..................... Of the 43 below average
    20 were in the top 25 .............................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 25
    5 were in the top 5 .................................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 5
    3 were daily records ............................... .......................... 0 were daily records

    IanHrVB.png

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    The scores are in for the 2015-16 CET comp. However these results are provisional pending any issues or queries that come to light.

    This month, 2 players got it spot on.

    SteveB and Chris.R :clap:

    In the Seasonal comp the top 3 is
    1. Singularity :clap::clapping:
    2. Chris.R
    3. Jonathan F.

    In the main comp the top 3 is

    1. Man With Beard :clapping::clap::good:
    2. BornFromTheVoid
    3. DAVID SNOW

    So a massive congratulations to Man with Beard full details below.

    Nov 2016 CET.xlsx

    Nov 2016 CET.pdf

    Any problems with any of the scores please let me know.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    10 minutes ago, J10 said:

    The scores are in for the 2015-16 CET comp. However these results are provisional pending any issues or queries that come to light.

    This month, 2 players got it spot on.

    SteveB and Chris.R :clap:

    In the Seasonal comp the top 3 is
    1. Singularity :clap::clapping:
    2. Chris.R
    3. Jonathan F.

    In the main comp the top 3 is

    1. Man With Beard :clapping::clap::good:
    2. BornFromTheVoid
    3. DAVID SNOW

    So a massive congratulations to Man with Beard full details below.

    Nov 2016 CET.xlsx

    Nov 2016 CET.pdf

    Any problems with any of the scores please let me know.

     

    Nice one! :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Congrats @Man With Beard, stopped me from getting 2 in a row! Top 2 (at least) are men with beards it seems

    giphy.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    29 minutes ago, J10 said:

    The scores are in for the 2015-16 CET comp. However these results are provisional pending any issues or queries that come to light.

    This month, 2 players got it spot on.

    SteveB and Chris.R :clap:

    In the Seasonal comp the top 3 is
    1. Singularity :clap::clapping:
    2. Chris.R
    3. Jonathan F.

    In the main comp the top 3 is

    1. Man With Beard :clapping::clap::good:
    2. BornFromTheVoid
    3. DAVID SNOW

    So a massive congratulations to Man with Beard full details below.

    Nov 2016 CET.xlsx

    Nov 2016 CET.pdf

    Any problems with any of the scores please let me know.

     

    Woahhhhhh!!! Absolutely gobsmacked, never won anything before! Working on my acceptance speech! (There is a trophy isn't there?)

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    (CET Competition Winner’s Acceptance Speech)

    Thank you all so very much. Thank you to Netweather, thank you to all of you in this competition. I have to congratulate the other incredible forecasters this year for their unbelievable performances too – Born from the Void, The Pit, Congelton Heat, David Snow, Roger Smith, Evening Thunder and the rest.

    My victory in the CET competition this year was the product of the tireless efforts of an unbelievable forum and weather modelling output I got to have alongside. First off, to the poster of daily CETs, Summer Sun. Summer, your fierce talent on getting daily CETs on here can only be surpassed by your positive posts on the Model Output forum. Roger Smith, as the history of the CET challenge unfolds, you have forged your way into history this past year ... thank you for creating a transcendent forecasting experience with your monthly CET stats. Thank you to J10 and Born from the Void. I have to thank everyone from the very onset of my forecasting career…to my mum for getting me my first weather crapbook in July 1983, to John Holmes for teaching me so much about the NOAA 8-14 dayer, to Steve Murr for showing me the shortcomings of the GFS in spotting trough disruption, to Knocker for picking apart my posts on the MOD and making me a better forecaster. To my wife, none of this would be possible without you; how can I repay you for agreeing to sleeping alone at the end of each month so I could study the ensemble charts instead? And to Frosty, BlueArmy, Crewe Cold, TEITS, Captain Shortwave, Fergieweather, Tamara, Nick F, Recreatos, Singularity, Matt Hugo, Lorenzo, Glacier Point, Chinomaniac, Ian Brown, Extreme Rollercoaster, Lettucing Gutted and all my virtual friends, I love you dearly, you know who you are.

    You may think, having got to the top, it might be the time to retire from the forum, but this forecaster’s not for turning. You see, I have a dream. I have a dream that summer will start in April and end in September. I have a dream that the sun will shine all summer long, with temperatures in the 80s from Camborne to Irlam. I have a dream that thunder and lightning will fill the sky time after time. I have a dream that in October, a storm will blow our fences over once again. And most of all, I dream that the whole of the UK will be covered in snow for one whole month this year and every year. I dream that Frosty will get his frost, Steve will get his Murr Sausage, Knocker will get mild rain all year round (but only in Camborne), Sidney will get his nuts, IDO will get a white Christmas, Greenland 1080 will see 1080mb over Greenland and Bristle Boy will feel ice on his bristles. And I believe it will happen soon. Read my lips, no more Bartlett!! I’m not saying all our winters have been bad. But British winters can be better. When Scandi goes low, Greenland goes high. Drain the Icelandic low, lock her up! And as for the ECM 46 dayer, well, it was the future once. Because, well, I know winners of the CET competition are supposed to win humbly but … hey, who cares – my forecasts this year have been better than the Met’s! So Philip Avery, Darren Bett, Chris Fawkes, Peter Gibbs, John Hammond, Sarah Keith-Lucas, Carol Kirkwood, Tomasz Schafernaker, Helen Willets – You guys took one hell of a beating!!!!

    And things can only get better. I predict the vortex will get back in the USSR, leading to a wonderwall of snow in my country house and for all of the common people. Omega block I will always love you, don’t stop believin’ folks because there’s a deep cold that’s gonna fall while the jet stream is in rehab. The models will show the Arctic in yellow, yes it will be beautiful day, I predict a blizzard, hallelujah, I bet it will look good on the Dartmoor! These charts don’t lie, the easterlies will be on fire, the low anomaly will leave right now, is this the way to a blocked pattern? If so, the Atlantic High might lose that sinking feeling. Because I heard it through the grapevine that the Glossea shows no more green, green grass of old because of the slush (or was that people on the MOD crying “Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want”?). Honestly, you just won’t know what to do with yourself when you open your heart to a White Christmas – the waterloo sunset will be white and Knocker will cry me a river. Well, Knocker, you can’t always get what you want, and I promise you the rest of us will be saying “Wish You Were Here”. Oh no, it won’t be the Americans who get the pie this Christmas, there’ll be such a bleak midwinter there will be anarchy in the UK as we are rolling in the deep snow. Oh yes, we are getting a cold, cold heart of winter - I’m a believer, no longer will we say “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For”. Oh, what a wonderful world. And this forecast … I did it my way.

    My goodness, this post is so long that you must be thinking it’s all over … It is now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    (CET Competition Winner’s Acceptance Speech)

    Thank you all so very much. Thank you to Netweather, thank you to all of you in this competition. I have to congratulate the other incredible forecasters this year for their unbelievable performances too – Born from the Void, The Pit, Congelton Heat, David Snow, Roger Smith, Evening Thunder and the rest.

    My victory in the CET competition this year was the product of the tireless efforts of an unbelievable forum and weather modelling output I got to have alongside. First off, to the poster of daily CETs, Summer Sun. Summer, your fierce talent on getting daily CETs on here can only be surpassed by your positive posts on the Model Output forum. Roger Smith, as the history of the CET challenge unfolds, you have forged your way into history this past year ... thank you for creating a transcendent forecasting experience with your monthly CET stats. Thank you to J10 and Born from the Void. I have to thank everyone from the very onset of my forecasting career…to my mum for getting me my first weather crapbook in July 1983, to John Holmes for teaching me so much about the NOAA 8-14 dayer, to Steve Murr for showing me the shortcomings of the GFS in spotting trough disruption, to Knocker for picking apart my posts on the MOD and making me a better forecaster. To my wife, none of this would be possible without you; how can I repay you for agreeing to sleeping alone at the end of each month so I could study the ensemble charts instead? And to Frosty, BlueArmy, Crewe Cold, TEITS, Captain Shortwave, Fergieweather, Tamara, Nick F, Recreatos, Singularity, Matt Hugo, Lorenzo, Glacier Point, Chinomaniac, Ian Brown, Extreme Rollercoaster, Lettucing Gutted and all my virtual friends, I love you dearly, you know who you are.

    You may think, having got to the top, it might be the time to retire from the forum, but this forecaster’s not for turning. You see, I have a dream. I have a dream that summer will start in April and end in September. I have a dream that the sun will shine all summer long, with temperatures in the 80s from Camborne to Irlam. I have a dream that thunder and lightning will fill the sky time after time. I have a dream that in October, a storm will blow our fences over once again. And most of all, I dream that the whole of the UK will be covered in snow for one whole month this year and every year. I dream that Frosty will get his frost, Steve will get his Murr Sausage, Knocker will get mild rain all year round (but only in Camborne), Sidney will get his nuts, IDO will get a white Christmas, Greenland 1080 will see 1080mb over Greenland and Bristle Boy will feel ice on his bristles. And I believe it will happen soon. Read my lips, no more Bartlett!! I’m not saying all our winters have been bad. But British winters can be better. When Scandi goes low, Greenland goes high. Drain the Icelandic low, lock her up! And as for the ECM 46 dayer, well, it was the future once. Because, well, I know winners of the CET competition are supposed to win humbly but … hey, who cares – my forecasts this year have been better than the Met’s! So Philip Avery, Darren Bett, Chris Fawkes, Peter Gibbs, John Hammond, Sarah Keith-Lucas, Carol Kirkwood, Tomasz Schafernaker, Helen Willets – You guys took one hell of a beating!!!!

    And things can only get better. I predict the vortex will get back in the USSR, leading to a wonderwall of snow in my country house and for all of the common people. Omega block I will always love you, don’t stop believin’ folks because there’s a deep cold that’s gonna fall while the jet stream is in rehab. The models will show the Arctic in yellow, yes it will be beautiful day, I predict a blizzard, hallelujah, I bet it will look good on the Dartmoor! These charts don’t lie, the easterlies will be on fire, the low anomaly will leave right now, is this the way to a blocked pattern? If so, the Atlantic High might lose that sinking feeling. Because I heard it through the grapevine that the Glossea shows no more green, green grass of old because of the slush (or was that people on the MOD crying “Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want”?). Honestly, you just won’t know what to do with yourself when you open your heart to a White Christmas – the waterloo sunset will be white and Knocker will cry me a river. Well, Knocker, you can’t always get what you want, and I promise you the rest of us will be saying “Wish You Were Here”. Oh no, it won’t be the Americans who get the pie this Christmas, there’ll be such a bleak midwinter there will be anarchy in the UK as we are rolling in the deep snow. Oh yes, we are getting a cold, cold heart of winter - I’m a believer, no longer will we say “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For”. Oh, what a wonderful world. And this forecast … I did it my way.

    My goodness, this post is so long that you must be thinking it’s all over … It is now.

    Hahaha legend! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    I say cancel this years competition and award it to @Man With Beard again just so we can get another acceptance speech like that again next year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    17 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Congrats @Man With Beard, stopped me from getting 2 in a row! Top 2 (at least) are men with beards it seems

    giphy.gif

    Happy to have finished 3rd for the second year running........ Top 3 (at least) are men with beards.:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Having looked at the results a bit more, I have to accept that I wasn't the top forecaster this year - @Evening thunder, wow, what you did was absolutely sensational. If you hadn't missed July, you'd have thrashed the lot of us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

    Having looked at the results a bit more, I have to accept that I wasn't the top forecaster this year - @Evening thunder, wow, what you did was absolutely sensational. If you hadn't missed July, you'd have thrashed the lot of us.

    Agreed!

    I could be wrong here, but in the years of this comp, i don't think anyone has finished top 3 two years in a row,  thinking more, has any member had a top 3 place  more than once (apart from this year)?

    MWB..... You have to do it all over again.......  No pressure ....:drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
    56 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Having looked at the results a bit more, I have to accept that I wasn't the top forecaster this year - @Evening thunder, wow, what you did was absolutely sensational. If you hadn't missed July, you'd have thrashed the lot of us.

    Wow - thanks!

    Well there's a lesson to myself.. don't miss a month and don't be late so often! lol. I was out of the country for June so forgot then typically.
    Must admit I think I remember changing my guess slightly from what it would have been if I was on time, for one month that I got correct.

    And on that note, with a fair bit going on I have just realised that I've forgotten to enter this December :wallbash:lol

    Congratulations on your win with on time guesses! 

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    12 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

    Wow - thanks!

    Well there's a lesson to myself.. don't miss a month and don't be late so often! lol. I was out of the country for June so forgot then typically.
    Must admit I think I remember changing my guess slightly from what it would have been if I was on time, for one month that I got correct.

    And on that note, with a fair bit going on I have just realised that I've forgotten to enter this December :wallbash:lol

    Congratulations on your win with on time guesses! 

    You can still enter (with a 20 pt deduction)

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    35 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Agreed!

    I could be wrong here, but in the years of this comp, i don't think anyone has finished top 3 two years in a row,  thinking more, has any member had a top 3 place  more than once (apart from this year)?

    MWB..... You have to do it all over again.......  No pressure ....:drunk-emoji:

    Great performance David! 

    No chance of a repeat if December doesn't go cold quick ... oops!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    11 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Agreed!

    I could be wrong here, but in the years of this comp, i don't think anyone has finished top 3 two years in a row,  thinking more, has any member had a top 3 place  more than once (apart from this year)?

    MWB..... You have to do it all over again.......  No pressure ....:drunk-emoji:

    We both did, mate! I was 1st last year and 2nd this year:drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    17 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    We both did, mate! I was 1st last year and 2nd this year:drinks:

    Yes indeed, when I said (apart from this year) I was naturally referring to us both:drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    12 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    Yes indeed, when I said (apart from this year) I was naturally referring to us both:drinks:

    Ah, my bad. At a quick glance, it looks like reef came 3rd in both 2011 and 2012

    Also, don't forget, you get a prize for winning this year!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
    On ‎12‎/‎1‎/‎2016 at 17:35, The PIT said:

    5.6 only 0.2C difference between here and the cet zone. Seems a bit odd that one.

    -7c and -9c in the CET zone brought it down,I thought it would.

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