November 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[DAVID SNOW]

Sub 6 just about guaranteed now, not many times  that's  occurred in the last 50 years.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.7C -1.1C below normal and amazingly no air frost yet. Current runs still suggest a final figure of 5.4 to 5.6c adding the normal +0.7c to this to get CET figure brings the final CET of between 6.1C to 6.3C

[Summer Sun]

6.4 to the 26th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average

0.9 below the 81 to 10 average

[NorthYorksWeather]

5.0c to the 26th, 1.5c below 1981-2010 average.

Potential for a sub zero mean on Tuesday so a small drop likely before month end.

[Man With Beard]

7 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.7C -1.1C below normal and amazingly no air frost yet. Current runs still suggest a final figure of 5.4 to 5.6c adding the normal +0.7c to this to get CET figure brings the final CET of between 6.1C to 6.3C

That would be my punt.

[BornFromTheVoid]

12z GFS would have the CET at 6.0C to the 30th. I'd say 5.9C or 6.0C are most likely before corrections.

[Man With Beard]

3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

12z GFS would have the CET at 6.0C to the 30th. I'd say 5.9C or 6.0C are most likely before corrections.

That would be even better

[damianslaw]

Might just nudge into the 5's especially given we have two very cold nights forecast on Monday and Tuesday, and I'm expecting about a 0.2 degree marked downward correction.

For comparison could someone post the current mean value for Scotland, I suspect it is running at least 1 degree below the 61-90 mean, though I'm not sure what mean it is recorded against.

We've had few mild days this month, indeed most days have brought maxes in single figures. 

[Gael_Force]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Might just nudge into the 5's especially given we have two very cold nights forecast on Monday and Tuesday, and I'm expecting about a 0.2 degree marked downward correction.

For comparison could someone post the current mean value for Scotland, I suspect it is running at least 1 degree below the 61-90 mean, though I'm not sure what mean it is recorded against.

We've had few mild days this month, indeed most days have brought maxes in single figures. 

I thought my 6 was looking good but this CET competition organiser is usually very close to the mark. He reckons a big downward correction this month.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=842369#post842369

[DAVID SNOW]

30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That would be even better

I take it that you don't read my posts MWB?

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I take it that you don't read my posts MWB?

I did Mr Snow, wasn't sure whether to believe you or not but Born From The Void (aka 'The Master') has spoken!!

[DAVID SNOW]

9 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

I did Mr Snow, wasn't sure whether to believe you or not but Born From The Void (aka 'The Master') has spoken!!

Congratulations MWB on winning this years comp.

Edited November 28, 2016 by DAVID SNOW

[Summer Sun]

6.3 to the 27th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average

1.0 below the 81 to 10 average

[Snowyowl9]

Temp has dropped like a rocket here 0.1c coldest night of the winter currently.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[The PIT]

No change still 5.7C will take a extremely cold night and day to make a huge difference now

[Summer Sun]

6.3 to the 28th

0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

0.9 below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Well Sunny Sheffield will finish on 5.4C unless there's a heatwave tomorrow. Coldest since 2010. Can't see much of a correction in the CET zone expect it to be around 6.0C to 6.2C

[damianslaw]

Won't be surprised to see a 0.3 downward correction, some of the CET values seem quite high, a finish of between 5.8-6.0 degrees most likely.

[The PIT]

The CET didn't rise in the mild period between the 12th and 16th in that period we nearly caught it up.

[Summer Sun]

6.2 to the 29th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average

1.0 below the 81 to 10 average

[Relativistic]

Yesterday's provisional daily value of 1.0C is the coldest November day since 2010. Certainly felt cold!

[virtualsphere]

I wonder if my 5.7 is in with a shout. Hopefully a few downward corrections come into play!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Almost certain to finish on 6.0C before corrections now, so anything from 5.6C to 6.0C is in with a shout.

[Summer Sun]

November confirmed as 5.6

Rank 133 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

[BornFromTheVoid]

5.55c, down from 6.03C, so a whopping .48C drop for November.

Will probably be tomorrow or the weekend before I have time to post some stats.