November 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Revised down to 6.5c please. 

 

BFTP

[swfc]

ill go 7-oc thanks

[storming15]

6.75 please

[Stargazer]

6.7 please

[Daniel*]

5.7 please 

[Stationary Front]

I'll go for a cold 5.8 please

[Midlands Ice Age]

5,8C for me please.

MIA

[Don]

Looking at the synoptics going into November, it looks likely to be a colder than average month with winds from a northerly quarter.  However, with the Arctic being so warm, I don't feel it will be particularly cold countrywide.  I expect northern parts of the UK to have a below average month but areas south of the midlands will probably have a slightly warmer than average month.  I expect that all areas will see a greater occurrence of frosts compared to the last few years, but that would be hardly difficult!  I will go for a CET of 7.0C please

Edited October 30, 2016 by Don

[Singularity]

5.7*C is my thinking at this time - but if I can remember despite Birthday celebrations I may update this tomorrow.

The models have really messed up on their signals these past couple of days, which really isn't helping matters!

31st Update: the models seem to be having a 'mare so I've not got reason enough to change my figure from 5.7*C. Not as low as I'd hoping to feel happy to go for but it does seem that the first half will feature more (but not necessarily many?) in the way of milder interludes than once looked likely to be the case.

History tells us to expect decreased model reliability when the vortex is severely disrupted. For once in a blue moon we're seeing this in the run-up to winter as opposed to in the mid-late stages. Fascinating times indeed.

Edited October 31, 2016 by Singularity
Confirmation

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Singularity said:

5.7*C is my thinking at this time - but if I can remember despite Birthday celebrations I may update this tomorrow.

The models have really messed up on their signals these past couple of days, which really isn't helping matters!

It is tricky that's for sure, taking into account model fluctuations and background signals, and some thought is very much needed to get a top three finish again .. An Interesting November it could be.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

It's looking like the coldest start to November for a few years. I will go 6.3C

[Chris.R]

  I would like 5.6°C please.

Milder in the middle but colder at both ends. 

Edited October 31, 2016 by Chris.R

[jonboy]

4.1 please

[Lettucing Gutted]

On ‎28‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 11:03, Man With Beard said:

I would absolutely love a synoptic explanation of your thinking.

Sorry I'm late with this.  I believe we're going to see a long draw southwesterly dominated month due to an extensive but weak Mid-Atlantic Trough and a monster Bartlett High and Azores High.  The main westerly jetstreams will all be in unusually northern latitudes with a very positive North Atlantic Oscillation and a very Positive Arctic Oscillation to boot.  This won't be helped by the exceptional warmth all over the Extratropical regions.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been trying but failing to go negative.  There also plenty of Atlantic Hurricanes still on the loose which would reinforce the Atlantic onslaughts as they re-curve and the QBO is still stuck in a double bill westerly phase.

Edited November 1, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted

[Backtrack]

3.0C

[seaside 60]

Another difficult month to guess.
Going to go wit the official people here and go for below ave but how much....
Lets say 6.1c

[Man With Beard]

Complete change of plan here. Everywhere I look, I see a mid-Atlantic high anomaly until at least mid-month. It has to be colder than average, surely. 

Please put me down for 6.0C - thanks.

[Mark Bayley]

7.2c please

[Jack Wales]

6.9 please

[Timmytour]

Amidst all the excitement of the potential for a cold forthcoming winter, and I certainly hope that potential is realised, it's worth recognising that the coldest 10 winters since 1900 have seen,on average, milder Novembers than the warmest 10 winters since 1900.

So I'm going for a pretty mild 7.30C overall, even mindful of the cool start that the month will have, in the hope that winter turns out to be enduringly wonderful rather than fleetingly and unseasonably spectacular!

[Gael_Force]

6.0c please.

 

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

8.2C thanks.

[Froze were the Days]

A chilly start but becoming milder from mid-month, I'll punt for 6.7c

[reef]

Slightly cooler than average:

6.3C

[Roger J Smith]

 5.3 for me.

(as of 0200 1st NOV) >>

I have posted the table in the competition/scoring thread.  There were 95 on time entries, median is 6.3 C. There was one at 13.0, the highest otherwise is 8.7 and the lowest is 3.0 C. All values from 5.1 to 7.7 have at least one entry already.

There are still openings (if you want an exclusive spot) at all below 3.0, then 3.1 to 3.4, 4.2 to 4.4, 4.6 ... then 7.8, 7.9, and 8.3 to 8.6 are all vacant (as of 0200h 1st November, check later posts to verify). Also anything between 8.8 and 12.9 is yours for the taking. 

Table of entries:

 

 

Edited November 1, 2016 by Roger J Smith