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Paul

Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

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No vortex yet as the mean today is running at -1.8M/S

forecasts suggest 24-26th...

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Yes, ECMWF  is going for the 25th at the moment. However, I've noted a slight tendency to underplay Easterlies at the equator at times, and if this also applies to 60N, then the vortex may be somewhat later.

Edited by snowwman

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2346/abstract

 

A set of relaxation experiments using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric model is used to analyze the severe European winter of 1962/1963. We argue that the severe winter weather was associated with a wave train that originated in the tropical Pacific sector (where weak La Niña conditions were present) and was redirected towards Europe, a process we suggest was influenced by the combined effect of the strong easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and unusually strong easterly winds in the upper equatorial troposphere that winter. A weak tendency towards negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions in December, associated with extratropical sea-surface temperature and sea-ice anomalies, might have acted as a favourable preconditioning. The redirection of the wave train towards Europe culminated in the stratospheric sudden warming at the end of January 1963. We argue that in February the sudden warming event helped maintain the negative NAO regime, allowing the severe weather to persist for a further month. A possible influence from the Madden–Julian Oscillation, as well as a role for internal atmospheric variability, is noted.

 

Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Not be long now when we see the 2017/18 graph show up:D

current 30hpa and 10hpa

pole30_nh.thumb.gif.b09dd34673c4fb76188bd2feac2b09fc.gifpole10_nh.thumb.gif.59e8563283902e4641695d6a755048a2.gif

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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The QBO may well be our friend this winter making the stratosphere more susceptible to northern blocking. Perhaps one  of the main catalysts for strat warmings  I think is a strong MJO like we saw in 2009 with a negative QBO. The difference this coming winter though is the likelihood of a weak Nina which dampens the wet phase of the MJO unfortunately and strengthens the likelihood of the dryer phases. Hopefully the Enso turns out to be more cold neutral or neutral this coming winter allowing for a couple of strong MJO events coupled with the negative QBO to give a greater propensity for cold outbreaks down into the mid latitudes and our neck of the woods.

 

 

Edited by comet
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Thanks for that knocks!!!

I am a little concerned over this coming winter? I do not see direct parallels with 09/10 but I do see us closer to that set up that at any time recently? With solar slowing we should already be expecting an uptick in Atlantic blocking but will that just lead to the set up we saw through autumn/early winter last year?

If we are also seeing the PV now molested by Autumn/early winter 'WACCy weather, so see it displaced and struggling to form then who knows how the impacts will be shared out this time? Will we see early snows across eurasia along the Arctic Ocean coastal strips? Will that 'cold pool' also skew things by having a big high form on top of it for the duration?

Never a dull moment eh?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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From the same twitter account: 

Only the abstract is available, but there is a PDF presentation here:

pres_0508_Karpechko_ArcticStratResponse.

https://www.gruan.org/gruan/editor/documents/meetings/icm-9/pres/pres_0508_Karpechko_ArcticStratResponse.pdf

It's a surprising result, as you would expect the opposite. The last page gives the gist which I'll repeat here:

Global Warming > Increased subtropical winds > Increased generation of planetary wave activity > Larger amplitude of stationary wave 1 in Trop > Larger wave flux into Strat > Stronger Strat meridional circulation > Warmer polar Strat and weaker PV

Edited by Yarmy
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I was playing around with various data again, and since we usually look at ENSO, QBO and Solar cycle data, I decided to make a graphic that combines all of it in one place, as a reference to past combinations of these indices. The enso line does not correspond to any axis values, but is just there as a feeling of wether it was + or - or waning/waxing.

qbosolarenso.png

Here is a version without the ENSO:

30mbqbosolar.png

And versions without solar data:

30mbqbo.png

10mbqbo.png

If anyone has some special graphical request, I can try to cook something up as much as its in my limited plotting power. 

Regards

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So we have eQBO, low solar activity and ENSO neutral (on the cold side) or La Nina for the next winter.

Winter 1996 and 2008 have the same 'specs'? 

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@ Recretos, is it possible to make december till march 500 mb charts for the winter 1996 & 2008, i.m.o. similair years as winter 2018?

Thanks!

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On 03/09/2017 at 12:18, sebastiaan1973 said:

So we have eQBO, low solar activity and ENSO neutral (on the cold side) or La Nina for the next winter.

Winter 1996 and 2008 have the same 'specs'? 

Interesting to see 1996 and 2008 sharing such teleconnections - assume you mean 08/09, not 07/08... Both brought quite a varied autumn with a bit of everything, though no real warmth, and in November some cold wintry conditions at times, thanks to northerly incursions, indeed mid atlantic high ridging north was the theme.

December 2008 and 1996 also brought a cold anticyclonic period, though of different strength and timing, in 2008 it was earlier on in the month, whereas in 1996 it was generally cold throughout notably so later on. Jan 09 brought episodic cold, followed by a cold first half to Feb with lots of snow, then very mild, Jan 97 started very cold, but then turned milder, Feb though was devoid of any cold.

I'd take an autumn like 2008, 1996, and a winter first half like 1996 followed by second half like 2009.

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The winter of 08/09 saw a +QBO

2007 (leading into winter 07/08) saw a much more aggressive La Nina event.

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On 9/4/2017 at 21:12, damianslaw said:

Interesting to see 1996 and 2008 sharing such teleconnections - assume you mean 08/09, not 07/08... Both brought quite a varied autumn with a bit of everything, though no real warmth, and in November some cold wintry conditions at times, thanks to northerly incursions, indeed mid atlantic high ridging north was the theme.

December 2008 and 1996 also brought a cold anticyclonic period, though of different strength and timing, in 2008 it was earlier on in the month, whereas in 1996 it was generally cold throughout notably so later on. Jan 09 brought episodic cold, followed by a cold first half to Feb with lots of snow, then very mild, Jan 97 started very cold, but then turned milder, Feb though was devoid of any cold.

I'd take an autumn like 2008, 1996, and a winter first half like 1996 followed by second half like 2009.

 

2008 saw a very cold anticyclonic period for parts of Scotland - think we saw -14'C or thereabouts and hoar frost around Christmas and Hogmanay.

 

Edit: Doh! Should've looked at my signature, -12.9'C on 30th December. A lot of ice days if my memory serves me right. 

Edited by NorthernRab
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On 05/09/2017 at 21:08, sebastiaan1973 said:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data 

-14,42 august 

 

Perhaps I'm wrong but  i think I 'read' winter 2008 and not 2009 in the graphic. But it's hard to see.

The best match / parallel is 2009 for the QBO - which is a good sign atm

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3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The most powerful solar flare for 10 years took place yesterday. Yes, stronger than any we saw during the last solar max period. And yes, we are supposed to be entering solar minimum. Activity on the sun is quite high at the moment. We just can't seem to get all the jigsaw pieces together at the same time. 

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Just now, blizzard81 said:
3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The most powerful solar flare for 10 years took place yesterday. Yes, stronger than any we saw during the last solar max period. And yes, we are supposed to be entering solar minimum. Activity on the sun is quite high at the moment. We just can't seem to get all the jigsaw pieces together at the same time. 

That looks like it was Steve that posted that but it was me. Tech glitch! 

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For further usage, i have added the SSW markers on the graphic, coloured by their respective ENSO phase (red-Elnino, green-Neutral, blue-Lanina).

123.png

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