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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Selly Oak, Birmingham or Thanet, East Kent
  • Location: Selly Oak, Birmingham or Thanet, East Kent

This upcoming warming is quite interesting, as many wave 1 events in the past seemed to push the PV towards our side of the hemisphere, but the GFS has been consistently modelling the PV at 10hPa to be displaced well to the east (although this is still in the extended range).

NH_HGT_10mb_384.thumb.gif.36a38af082fc68802d75d13027743076.gif

Today's 6z shows the possible effects of this, with downward propagation resulting in a nice stratospheric ridge over Greenland at 30hPa, and there are signs of a ridge beginning to build at 100hPa at the end of the output.

NH_HGT_30mb_384.thumb.gif.2295168ee32cdb606f4c4a5d25e8ab2d.gifNH_HGT_100mb_384.thumb.gif.a13b864fd230beea38c989bfa9ab094f.gif

It is only one run so caution required, but something to keep an eye on.

EDIT: Fixed the images.

Edited by Ice BIast
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I've just come across another weather sites 'early Spring thoughts' and their forecaster has QBO 'forecast' to stay westerly through spring?

We were told , upthread, that we were seeing the QBO attempt a reversal back to Easterly?

Which is it?

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I've just come across another weather sites 'early Spring thoughts' and their forecaster has QBO 'forecast' to stay westerly through spring?

We were told , upthread, that we were seeing the QBO attempt a reversal back to Easterly?

Which is it?

It's totally normal for the QBO being in the westerly phase this spring. In the summer it will change. Last year was an exception. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
5 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

It's totally normal for the QBO being in the westerly phase this spring. In the summer it will change. Last year was an exception. 

Nouska had posted , up thread, that the 10hpa was already flipped and that we would be easterly 'by the business end of the year' so I was confused to see the other site forecasting 'westerly' for spring.

Nothing can be 'totally normal' whilst we are in this , never before observed, westerlies extension.

Should we see the change complete then all eyes will be focussed on ENSO as being the reason for the failure to reverse but if it does the same asgain this year as it did last year then we surely will need to look at the mess that has been the polar Strat this winter?

Last years failed reversal occurred as our final warming was beginning.

Odds seem likely that this upcoming PV event will turn into another early final warming ( Antarctica also had an early final warming at the end of their winter so both poles are at it?) and if we see another QBO reversal failure I know where i'll be laying the blame!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
6 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I've just come across another weather sites 'early Spring thoughts' and their forecaster has QBO 'forecast' to stay westerly through spring?

We were told , upthread, that we were seeing the QBO attempt a reversal back to Easterly?

Which is it?

Easterlies are downwelling but it will take months to scrub the +QBO values from the lower stratosphere.

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Posted
  • Location: Selly Oak, Birmingham or Thanet, East Kent
  • Location: Selly Oak, Birmingham or Thanet, East Kent
On 14/02/2017 at 13:33, Ice BIast said:

This upcoming warming is quite interesting, as many wave 1 events in the past seemed to push the PV towards our side of the hemisphere, but the GFS has been consistently modelling the PV at 10hPa to be displaced well to the east (although this is still in the extended range).

NH_HGT_10mb_384.thumb.gif.36a38af082fc68802d75d13027743076.gif

Today's 6z shows the possible effects of this, with downward propagation resulting in a nice stratospheric ridge over Greenland at 30hPa, and there are signs of a ridge beginning to build at 100hPa at the end of the output.

NH_HGT_30mb_384.thumb.gif.2295168ee32cdb606f4c4a5d25e8ab2d.gifNH_HGT_100mb_384.thumb.gif.a13b864fd230beea38c989bfa9ab094f.gif

The 18z continues the theme, and is the first run to show significant polar ridging in the troposphere and Greenland high potential at the end of the run.

58a4e0a2250b6_NH_HGT_100mb_384(1).thumb.gif.b0f2caae6b5f55f7bac5c559ab0986b3.gifgfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.0bad4d5e98dd26180b10dbf74a6183cd.png

I suspect that the stratospheric PV will probably end up not being displaced quite as much as currently modelled, but the current output certainly seems to be favourable for the chances of a final cold spell before Spring arrives.

 

Edited by Ice BIast
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A connection from Arctic stratospheric ozone to El Niño-Southern oscillation

Quote

Abstract

Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion is thought to influence the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric climate. Recently, Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) variations have been found to affect the middle-high latitude tropospheric climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This paper demonstrates that the impact of ASO can extend to the tropics, with the ASO variations leading El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events by about 20 months. Using observations, analysis, and simulations, the connection between ASO and ENSO is established by combining the high-latitude stratosphere to troposphere pathway with the extratropical to tropical climate teleconnection. This shows that the ASO radiative anomalies influence the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the anomalous NPO and induced Victoria Mode anomalies link to the North Pacific circulation that then influences ENSO. Our results imply that incorporating realistic and time-varying ASO into climate system models may help to improve ENSO predictions.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124026

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

So what's an "upward vertical wave flux" when its at home and , more importantly, what forces it?

Thanks in advance!

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Put simply, it's the direction and momentum of travel from a tropospheric wave that is seen from a blocking pattern. Look at the recent large EAMT which will have assisted this process.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Put simply, it's the direction and momentum of travel from a tropospheric wave that is seen from a blocking pattern. Look at the recent large EAMT which will have assisted this process.

But you'll forgive us, following one of the most frustrating winters of the christmas pudding, should we fail to exhibit our usual levels of unbridled, preemptive euphoria, I hope?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
5 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Put simply, it's the direction and momentum of travel from a tropospheric wave that is seen from a blocking pattern. Look at the recent large EAMT which will have assisted this process.

Get the MT bit as Mountain Torque (?) What's the EA stand for please? Googled it and got lots of misses! 

Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

East Asian 

Ta muchly!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
11 hours ago, JeffC said:

Get the MT bit as Mountain Torque (?) What's the EA stand for please? Googled it and got lots of misses! 

Thanks

East Anglian Mountain Torque.:D

 

Another hairs-breadth SSW at day 9 from testerday's ECM.

 

ecmwfzm_u_f216.thumb.gif.c1bd9142f8033d48975c87951712f3bb.gifecmwf10f216.thumb.gif.d6ff4c2fecd24bf723bc99866d7b08e1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
22 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

East Anglian Mountain Torque.:D

 

Another hairs-breadth SSW at day 9 from testerday's ECM.

 

ecmwfzm_u_f216.thumb.gif.c1bd9142f8033d48975c87951712f3bb.gifecmwf10f216.thumb.gif.d6ff4c2fecd24bf723bc99866d7b08e1.gif

Actually it looks more convincing than the last one and it seems likely to be more sustained judging by the forecast higher up. Zonal flow lower down slowly drops off though yet to look overly notable - early march could well hold some interest for coldies but will take a special sypnotic arrangement for the southern half uk away from elevation > 650 feet to see snowcover survive the march sun.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Actually it looks more convincing than the last one and it seems likely to be more sustained judging by the forecast higher up. Zonal flow lower down slowly drops off though yet to look overly notable - early march could well hold some interest for coldies but will take a special sypnotic arrangement for the southern half uk away from elevation > 650 feet to see snowcover survive the march sun.

Yes we know, you mention that in every post lately.

The 0z gfs seems to be heading towards a final warming territory in the last few frames.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 hour ago, Cloud 10 said:

East Anglian Mountain Torque.:D

 

Another hairs-breadth SSW at day 9 from testerday's ECM.

 

ecmwfzm_u_f216.thumb.gif.c1bd9142f8033d48975c87951712f3bb.gifecmwf10f216.thumb.gif.d6ff4c2fecd24bf723bc99866d7b08e1.gif

Maybe that's why the SSW's this time haven't had much lasting impact...

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
22 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes we know, you mention that in every post lately.

The 0z gfs seems to be heading towards a final warming territory in the last few frames.

just trying to keep everyone's feet on the ground until spring does arrive and we can put the chase aside until mid November !  Too much expectation approaching last weekend caused a bit of a reaction from some. 

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

There is no doubts this time round regarding upcoming SSW and we see this when comparing both.IMG_3258.thumb.JPG.b9ea111909b0e238383171cda37901d1.JPG

Feb 1st 2017.

IMG_3257.thumb.GIF.709616294ec79c482b80e83978769382.GIF

24th Feb 2017. At the very least a reversal of 10 m/s at 60N.

It has been a prolific winter season for Strat events and models forecast another at 384 hours.IMG_3260.thumb.PNG.ba4597695569df0ff5ef4c753b3d11f4.PNG

 

Comparisons to the 2015/16 season, we have been above the temperature mean repeatedly and with this event and the next. 

80% of the entire season will be above the mean. 

Analysis of this season dry La Niña, WQBO and hampering/destruction of ozone from solar particles (protons) would be a simplistic observation of this winter season.

IMG_3259.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
19 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

So what's an "upward vertical wave flux" when its at home and , more importantly, what forces it?

Thanks in advance!

Chionomanic has already answered, here are some images for better visualisation.IMG_3262.JPG.8f99a5fde6346b001a53076c0e2e29ae.JPG

IMG_3261.thumb.JPG.b4b3cccbe1dfd4dd74e3a36ac099ec66.JPG

IMG_3264.thumb.JPG.c663f2b1cec39d730921d83d728c8f3f.JPG

IMG_3263.thumb.JPG.a7d17731101aa428effeb53a727f92ed.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Thanks for the replies guys, appreciated! Did some reading around and so feel quite thick now for not realising it was just atmospheric waves rolling through!

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