Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

[karyo]

24 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Mounting evidence for the excessively warm Arctic troposphere altering the typical seasonal progression as even near-average amounts of wave breaking have greater resources to work with. Coupled with reduced trop-strat heat transfer during quiet WAFz periods due to GHG blanket, perhaps a great many of our winters will tend to see a vortex that gets very strong, very fast, then takes a hammering later in the season.

All hypothetical though, and I shall (at least) wait and see what happens in an E-QBO, low solar activity autumn-winter before drawing conclusions.

Since you’ve mentioned it, are there any hints/forecasts about when we can expect an easterly QBO to develop?

[Gray-Wolf]

An E QBO..... I wonder when we'll see one of those again? The W QBO not only seems to be surviving beyond its due date but positively thriving! I have to wonder just how much energy the PV , especially when displaced, places into the the flow of W QBO? Could low Arctic Sea ice be leading to an enhanced W QBO? did the last couple of E QBO look ok or did they show 'oddities' over their period?

As for low solar E QBO? surely QBO has to flip soon?

[Matthew.]

3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

An E QBO..... I wonder when we'll see one of those again? The W QBO not only seems to be surviving beyond its due date but positively thriving! I have to wonder just how much energy the PV , especially when displaced, places into the the flow of W QBO? Could low Arctic Sea ice be leading to an enhanced W QBO? did the last couple of E QBO look ok or did they show 'oddities' over their period?

As for low solar E QBO? surely QBO has to flip soon?

Wouldn't be surprised to see it go neutral over summer.

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see it go neutral over summer.

We are nearly there at 10hPa

.... and slowly reducing below that level - bar upsets like last year, it should be east by the business end of the year.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore2016.dat

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore2017.dat

Just to add the last four solar rotations - geomag remaining low but check out the years on the link below to see what it looked like during and after minimum in 2008 and 2009

http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html

Edited February 9, 2017 by Nouska

[chionomaniac]

Check this out. Best strat data compendium ever!

 

[Gray-Wolf]

So how sure are we that we will see QBO finally turn easterly?

I am still not clear on what we believe caused it to remain westerly and , to me, conditions are just as , if not more, extreme than we saw this time last year ?

I spend a lot of time observing the changes across the far north and we have never seen as much energy entering the Arctic basin as we have since October and impacts of this have been obvious in the reluctance of the PV to form up this year and it 'roaming' around the peripheries never mind the 'on /off' SSW forecasts we have seen through this season. If WACCy weather impacts are a part of what 'encouraged' the QBO to remain westerly then those forcings are at their strongest yet measured over this winter.

Back to the PV. If this terrible winter over the Basin is anything to go by then I do not see any meaningful rebuild of a single PV over the pole prior to the final warming. I think we will see a struggling vortex just give up the ghost!

[seaside 60]

So is it the beginning of the end then or is it just a one off.
Or will weather patterns revert to "normal".

Has the balance tipped over the point in regards to more and more ice melt and no ice.
 

Edited February 10, 2017 by seaside 60

[Singularity]

3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

So how sure are we that we will see QBO finally turn easterly?

I am still not clear on what we believe caused it to remain westerly and , to me, conditions are just as , if not more, extreme than we saw this time last year ?

I spend a lot of time observing the changes across the far north and we have never seen as much energy entering the Arctic basin as we have since October and impacts of this have been obvious in the reluctance of the PV to form up this year and it 'roaming' around the peripheries never mind the 'on /off' SSW forecasts we have seen through this season. If WACCy weather impacts are a part of what 'encouraged' the QBO to remain westerly then those forcings are at their strongest yet measured over this winter.

Back to the PV. If this terrible winter over the Basin is anything to go by then I do not see any meaningful rebuild of a single PV over the pole prior to the final warming. I think we will see a struggling vortex just give up the ghost!

I did see a suggestion once that the unusually strong and central-heavy El Nino was a key player in causing the QBO to stay westerly, with evidence that the 1998 event came close to doing the same or at least slowed down the rate of transition to easterly.

Beats me where it was that I saw that... there's far too much information in my life 

[Johnp]

Why has the Strat thread morphed into a tiresome climate change thread?

[Nouska]

I think people get carried away, thinking the SPV is gone, when looking at only the 10mb temperature plots. It is in a very healthy state currently....

Forecast is for another displacement episode at the end of the GFS run - almost an end of January redux ...

@Singularity - the papers/write ups you refer to are near the end of the previous stratosphere thread. One heavily pointed to a super Nino connection - another said that the signal was not of tropical origin, rather from mid latitude wave activity. I don't see any anomaly during the '97 -'98 progression.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Nouska

[Gray-Wolf]

3 hours ago, Johnp said:

Why has the Strat thread morphed into a tiresome climate change thread?

So we are not to discuss changes to the workings of the strat in the strat thread as it offends your sensibilities? Trumplethinskin science in action!!!

We look at the strat ( QBO/PV's/SSW's) to try and gain some lead time on forecasts due to relationships with the trop that rely upon the strats behaviour. We are all learners here so when something exceptional happens why should we be chastened for trying to discover why it occurred?`

We are left looking either at an ENSO forcing on the QBO leading to the errant behaviour or something from further poleward as being responsible. If we look at the north over the winter 15/16 some odd things were occurring leading to a record warm pole over the winter ( even worse this time around!).

If we see the QBO again refuse to flip once it gets down to zero we do not have a Nino to blame so must look elsewhere and , for me, that elsewhere has to be the place seeing the most radical changes across the full depth of the atmosphere (and up into the stratosphere/mesosphere).

Climate change is a proven reality, folk tell me climate is always changing...........

EDIT: More sensibly we must accept that things in climate /weather are turning ever more 'variable' along the lines that warming the planet would take.

No matter the 'cause' of that warming I honestly think it would be wise to explore where these changes may take us?

As a species we rely heavily upon a small number of growing regions and any 'multiple hit' on these areas will drive instant social response....... it's not all about a WACCy driven cold plunge and the price of courgettes...... it is deadly serious.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Gray-Wolf

[snowbunting]

The QBO in its westerly phase looks like it has in the past taken some persuading to flip if the graph that Nouska is anything to go by. Not sure what is west and what colour is East. But both can be stubborn to let go of the reins. 

Edited February 10, 2017 by snowbunting

[snowbunting]

3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

 

As a species we rely heavily upon a small number of growing regions and any 'multiple hit' on these areas will drive instant social response....... it's not all about a WACCy driven cold plunge and the price of courgettes...... it is deadly serious.

Agreed. Peoples attitudes to resources need to change too. We are not living in a sustainable manner. But that is by the by and for another forum. There is little doubt that the what hapoens in the stratosphere permiates down through the troposphere and eventually oceans. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Well I'm not moving on my take on things. what just happened was weak and more a displacement than a true SSW. This will continue on until another early strong final warming in 9 or 10 days? Could we be blighted with a cold March and some last gasp snow for folks?

[snowbunting]

50 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Well I'm not moving on my take on things. what just happened was weak and more a displacement than a true SSW. This will continue on until another early strong final warming in 9 or 10 days? Could we be blighted with a cold March and some last gasp snow for folks?

It seems to be the pattern of things last few Springs. A cold March is a dry sunny March for us in the western isles. So I wont grumble. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi S.B.!

I'm waiting on the QBO to see if it will flip easterly this time. Mainly as I feel the push to keep it easterly is coming from energies originating in the far north. If this is correct then this years Final warming will be of similar impact to last years ( and just as early?) .... I wonder if we'll have anomalous ozone destruction over us this time around? I do wish you a lovely spring with plenty of those air masses that bring that 'photographic light' with them!

[Interitus]

14 hours ago, snowbunting said:

The QBO in its westerly phase looks like it has in the past taken some persuading to flip if the graph that Nouska is anything to go by. Not sure what is west and what colour is East. But both can be stubborn to let go of the reins. 

Red is west, the stronger easterly phase is blue.

[Summer Sun]

Ian F yesterday

By late Feb a strong signal for stratospheric warming, but no sign in GloSea that it will influence troposphere & thus of little value to provide predictions on any (if any) effect on UK weather. Early March looking milder/wetter, but tentative signal

Edited February 11, 2017 by Summer Sun

[snowbunting]

2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Hi S.B.!

I'm waiting on the QBO to see if it will flip easterly this time. Mainly as I feel the push to keep it easterly is coming from energies originating in the far north. If this is correct then this years Final warming will be of similar impact to last years ( and just as early?) .... I wonder if we'll have anomalous ozone destruction over us this time around? I do wish you a lovely spring with plenty of those air masses that bring that 'photographic light' with them!

Thanku! An easterly flip must be imminant.  The GFS is picking up Nly outbreaks now. Repeat and Rinse of 2006 perhaps. Todays weather. Long may it last!

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Ian F yesterday

By late Feb a strong signal for stratospheric warming, but no sign in GloSea that it will influence troposphere & thus of little value to provide predictions on any (if any) effect on UK weather. Early March looking milder/wetter, but tentative signal

We won't have to wait until March for the milder weather.

[snowbunting]

Not sure if this will constitute a SSW event but as greywolf has suggested before the last warming event obliterates the polar vortex. Not sure of the ramifications yet. I suspect a repeat of 2013... . No early warmth though no storms either with late lambing snow possible.

[Summer Sun]

 

[iapennell]

On 2/7/2017 at 19:25, iapennell said:

@Weather-history; Certainly for the north and west of Britain it does not seem to have been a cold winter to date. Where I live in the North Pennines I am yet to see the temperature drop below -5C (unusual for us at over 400 metres above sea-level not to get below this temperature) and we have only had 8 cm of snow-cover at most. The high-pressure systems this winter have tended to be over Europe, sometimes extending across the South and this is not a good position for very cold conditions with hard-frosts for the North Pennines. This part of the country has often had mild air off the North Atlantic whilst the South East has had dry cold and frosty weather under high-pressure.

That said, the (predicted) circulation far aloft over the Arctic and sub-arctic gives more grounds for optimism (as regards cold weather and snow) over the next fortnight and certainly for those of us living in the north of England the longer-term forecast charts (which have strong high-pressure over Scandinavia) there are prospects for the coldest weather this winter to date. In early January the predicted mean winds at 10 mb were over 30 m/s (67 mph or more) along 60N and the strong westerly QBO high over the Equator looked like it might help maintain the strong upper flow; thanks to upwards wave activity over the tropics associated with convective disturbances (leading to subsidence and warming in the Arctic Stratosphere) since early January the 10 mb level westerlies averaged along 60N are now much weaker ( and predicted to remain so) leading to the surface synoptic set-up with high-pressure over Scandinavia expected this week. if it comes off I, for one, will be quite chuffed!  

It would seem that the dramatic weakening of the Westerlies of the sub-arctic Stratosphere at the start of February has not amounted to much; we have had a few days of easterly winds but no real low temperatures and snow (only got to -2C where I live in the North Pennines). Other factors, perhaps the unusual warmth of the far NE Atlantic and the effects of the strong Westerly QBO phase have meant that pressure has not remained high enough for long enough to the north of Britain to deliver real cold air to the entire country. However, predicted polar stratospheric warming at the 10 mb level is predicted to lead to a possible reversal of stratospheric Westerlies over the sub-arctic near the end of this month, vis:

Lets see if this can result in some real cold-weather synopsis in early March 2017! If this month is anything to go by the effects of the unusual warmth of the far NE Atlantic and Westerly QBO (by then combined with the strengthening sunshine and lengthening days of March) could well mean persistent high-pressure in mid-latitudes- i.e. over Europe with lower pressure over the warmer far NE Atlantic leading to quite benign conditions instead. We shall see.  

[iapennell]

On 2/10/2017 at 16:49, Johnp said:

Why has the Strat thread morphed into a tiresome climate change thread?

@Johnp; I am sure it is not the intention of most of the weather-enthusiasts posting on the Stratospheric Watch thread to talk specifically about climate change.

That said, any serious discussion about Stratospheric temperature and wind-patterns (which all have a major bearing on conditions down below) is going to involve those factors that are a major influence on the Stratosphere in such discussions. Examples include El Nino/La Nina which cause tropical convection anomalies and different levels of wave activity to reach the Stratosphere; gravity waves are caused by strong winds blowing over mountain ranges and these impact the Stratosphere; sunspot activity affects the magnetic field and the interaction with the magnetosphere results in an intensification of the Stratospheric polar vortex and factors such as ozone concentrations, dust from volcanoes, etc affect temperatures in the Stratosphere because more solar energy is absorbed and that, too, will affect wind-patterns. Atmospheric tidal influences from the Moon and the Sun also have a (small) effect on the Stratosphere, as do meteorites and atmospheric out-gassing to space (though again these effects are usually very small).

Last but not least the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the underlying troposphere has an impact further up- extensive easterlies in the upper atmosphere over lower latitudes would slow down (and possibly reverse) Stratospheric Westerlies above them and this effect would spread into higher (and lower) latitudes.

I hope that this answers your query.  

[Recretos]

On 10. 2. 2017 at 17:49, Johnp said:

Why has the Strat thread morphed into a tiresome climate change thread?

Not just this, but a lot of the times when I get the notifications in my inbox, it looks like a twitter feed. 

But there are some brilliant posts still to be found.