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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17


Paul

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Fist of all, I'm very grateful to everyone for having increased  my level of understanding which is definitely yet to be improved.
I'd like to draw your attention to the following reasoning on tiptoe with the only 
aim at contributing to the debate as i'm not an expert .
Briefly,  “something caught my eye".
In my humble view, the propagation of the statcooling  seems to be explosive  and in the "backgroung" I can glimpse the future set up of  a classic ESE cold according to the theory of
Baldwin& Durketon with the following timeframe: 
-AO is predicted to reach +5 straight after the first pulse.
-trigger took place on December 5th-7th.
- lag time: 11th - 19th December.
- 1st pulse into the troposhere coming on for Christmas ( 24th Dec.).

I hereunder attached a little 
sketch ( I hope to be forgiven for the low quality of it, also it can't get any worse than it already is... ) 
Kind regards and best wishes!

 

Figura 2.PNG

Figura 2.PNG

Edited by oligo
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
1 hour ago, oligo said:

Fist of all, I'm very grateful to everyone for having increased  my level of understanding which is definitely yet to be improved.
I'd like to draw your attention to the following reasoning on tiptoe with the only 
aim at contributing to the debate as i'm not an expert .
Briefly,  “something caught my eye".
In my humble view, the propagation of the statcooling  seems to be explosive  and in the "backgroung" I can glimpse the future set up of  a classic ESE cold according to the theory of
Baldwin& Durketon with the following timeframe: 
-AO is predicted to reach +5 straight after the first pulse.
-trigger took place o
n December 5th-7th.
- lag time: 11th - 19th December.
- 1st pulse into the troposhere coming on for Christmas ( 24th Dec.).

I hereunder attached a little 
sketch ( I hope to be forgiven for the low quality of it, also it can't get any worse than it already is... ) 
Kind regards and best wishes!

 

Figura 2.PNG

Figura 2.PNG

 

Hi, could you make the text bigger its a bit hard to read

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif irtempanim.gif

Convective flare-ups in the W-Pacific and the H-W plot jumping toward 6/7 in the face of all the models and even their ensemble spreads.

Could this shake the pattern up and encourage poleward ridges just when (and where) we need it the most?

I've been tracking the MJO versus model projections for years now and I've rarely seen such a large deviation in the observations from the model spread.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif irtempanim.gif

Convective flare-ups in the W-Pacific and the H-W plot jumping toward 6/7 in the face of all the models and even their ensemble spreads.

Could this shake the pattern up and encourage poleward ridges just when (and where) we need it the most?

I've been tracking the MJO versus model projections for years now and I've rarely seen such a large deviation in the observations from the model spread.

But the MJO doesnt leave the COD apart from the GEFS therefore of little relevance and impact?

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Just now, mountain shadow said:

But the MJO doesnt leave the COD apart from the GEFS therefore of little relevance and impact?

The models have just been so far off the mark that it's their projections that are potentially irrelevant. Well, hopefully! It's actually quite strange how they're trying to take the MJO to the same region as they were yesterday, despite it having a markedly different starting place.

- and in any case, below 1 SD does still have some effect. Every little helps. 

Question now is whether the MJO continues to propagate east and gain strength, or about-faces to follow the models after all.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, Singularity said:

 

Question now is whether the MJO continues to propagate east and gain strength, or about-faces to follow the models after all.

Given current low angular momentum which is projected to decrease further I think any model hinting at a HLB over the next three weeks is of very low probability of occuring.

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Given current low angular momentum which is projected to decrease further I think any model hinting at a HLB over the next three weeks is of very low probability of occuring.

 

gfsgwo_1.png

Currently we're at dead-neutral, I believe if the MJO doesn't amplify further we could ease slowly down to around -1 SD anomaly (beware GEFS' negative bias) but that's not going to have a major effect on the patterns either way - bit of a status quo situation really.

If the MJO did happen to move outside of the COD within the next week then GLAAM would respond by showing an upward trend to some extent or other. This, in my eyes, is a possibility, but only that, and nothing to bet the house on or even a cupboard at this stage!

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

gfsgwo_1.png

Currently we're at dead-neutral, I believe if the MJO doesn't amplify further we could ease slowly down to around -1 SD anomaly (beware GEFS' negative bias) but that's not going to have a major effect on the patterns either way - bit of a status quo situation really.

If the MJO did happen to move outside of the COD within the next week then GLAAM would respond by showing an upward trend to some extent or other. This, in my eyes, is a possibility, but only that, and nothing to bet the house on or even a cupboard at this stage!

I have a question do you really need MJO to be favourable it never delivered last time when it was, Im sure there has to been times when the MJO wasn,t favourable but we ended up with HLB also how does rossby wave tie in with MJO if at all?

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
54 minutes ago, Singularity said:

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif irtempanim.gif

Convective flare-ups in the W-Pacific and the H-W plot jumping toward 6/7 in the face of all the models and even their ensemble spreads.

Could this shake the pattern up and encourage poleward ridges just when (and where) we need it the most?

I've been tracking the MJO versus model projections for years now and I've rarely seen such a large deviation in the observations from the model spread.

Could be, Indian Ocean MJO running at 50% in La Niña conditions. 

Quite a powerful wave train emanated out of sector 3/COD.  

GFS (outer limit) now showing a trace of energy transfer to 10 hPa. IMG_3066.PNGIt's something to at least monitor. 

Merry Christmas everyone.

Edited by KyleHenry
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
32 minutes ago, KyleHenry said:

Could be, Indian Ocean MJO running at 50% in La Niña conditions. 

Quite a powerful wave train emanated out of sector 3/COD.  

GFS (outer limit) now showing a trace of energy transfer to 10 hPa. IMG_3066.PNGIt's something to at least monitor. 

Merry Christmas everyone.

Don't remember who but someone has been saying for a long time cfs predicted ssw januari 6th 

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
53 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Don't remember who but someone has been saying for a long time cfs predicted ssw januari 6th 

Need more amplification/energy showing in the MJO sectors of the model.

The WQBO, polar vortex will eat the lesser energy transfers up. 

The IO needs to build on this current phase and only then can discussions of a SSW can occur.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Could someone post dates of recent SSW events, and the state of ENSO at the time they occurred, and more importantly the after effect in terms of cold delivery - and how long such cold lasted. I think the last one to produce a quick rapid response was late Jan 2009. The event in early Jan 2013 had a lengthy delayed reaction, but I think helped build the base for the cold March. 

Will be interesting to see how often they occur, and the various dates they occur, I think there are a number that occurred too late to produce winter cold, but instead delivered spring cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
6 hours ago, Singularity said:

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif irtempanim.gif

Convective flare-ups in the W-Pacific and the H-W plot jumping toward 6/7 in the face of all the models and even their ensemble spreads.

Could this shake the pattern up and encourage poleward ridges just when (and where) we need it the most?

I've been tracking the MJO versus model projections for years now and I've rarely seen such a large deviation in the observations from the model spread.

Agreed. Very interesting progression. I'm holding off "predicting" the New Year period and beyond yet until the pacific signal is a little more clear. Should that jump be replicated again tomorrow and the forcing comes out of the COD then I think we may have sufficient amplification for a more happy looking profile than the models are tending to display at the moment. If it retreats in the COD and moves away from 6/7/8 then I have a sinking feeling about prospects through the heart of winter.... GLAAM rather inconclusive and vortex profile not showing anything at the moment to help break us out of the current pattern. If the MJO doesnt do it then I'm not sure what will....

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

When looking at model runs from older SSW's it always looked like the isotemperature lines were drawn by someone with a tremor,  I always figured this was because of an artefact of older version of GFS but now see those tremors appearing again, the tremors continue on the gfs para but smooth out on gfs operational later on. Are these tremors a sign of a real SSW, some sort of real wave disturbing the vortex?

 

gfsnh-10-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Could someone post dates of recent SSW events, and the state of ENSO at the time they occurred, and more importantly the after effect in terms of cold delivery - and how long such cold lasted. I think the last one to produce a quick rapid response was late Jan 2009. The event in early Jan 2013 had a lengthy delayed reaction, but I think helped build the base for the cold March. 

Will be interesting to see how often they occur, and the various dates they occur, I think there are a number that occurred too late to produce winter cold, but instead delivered spring cold.

you need to link them together yourself though. I have looked at all non-neutral enso winters though and cold seems to be most prevalent in slight or moderate (and neutral) enso events (maybe slightly more in nino than nina), strong or very strong events have always delivered crap winters

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
On 17/12/2016 at 20:46, lorenzo said:

Good shout @Interitus forecast on the edge of the envelope.

 

nacr.PNG

Does anyone have the URL for these NASA Strat graphs?

Edited by mulzy
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2 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

When looking at model runs from older SSW's it always looked like the isotemperature lines were drawn by someone with a tremor,  I always figured this was because of an artefact of older version of GFS but now see those tremors appearing again, the tremors continue on the gfs para but smooth out on gfs operational later on. Are these tremors a sign of a real SSW, some sort of real wave disturbing the vortex?

 

gfsnh-10-192.png

Can't say for certain, but there are some gravity waves eg. orographic (mountain) waves or from frontal systems which are too small to be seen clearly because the models can't fully resolve the detail but do show in higher resolution - Recretos sometimes posts charts which show them.

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