Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

[KyleHenry]

8 hours ago, Singularity said:

Right now, we have all of the pieces of the puzzle laid out in front of us -  projections for stratospheric and tropical developments and possible snow albedo feedbacks to name a few - but they keep on jiggling about which makes them frustratingly tricky to snap together .

I really hope ECMF keeps up the tropical propagation signal to the Pacific in today's update and - better yet - the other models start to follow suit (though UKMET might already be there). To have that on our side as well would really be the springboard from which to launch a spell of nicely positioned HLB. 

 

O3 may be the big decider this year. Highest concentration is positioned in Canadian zone. Wave 2 may get a surprising boost if BDO increases over the next 3 weeks. 

Higher O3, tropospheric displacement,tropic forcing and strong wave 2. All in for the next three weeks.

[Singularity]

8 minutes ago, KyleHenry said:

O3 may be the big decider this year. Highest concentration is positioned in Canadian zone. Wave 2 may get a surprising boost if BDO increases over the next 3 weeks. 

Higher O3, tropospheric displacement,tropic forcing and strong wave 2. All in for the next three weeks.

Great to hear from you Kyle, thanks for that snippet of eyebrow-raising information 

[KyleHenry]

Head must always rule the heart with Geophysics. Last years' super El Niño and WQBO dictated the entire season, as shown with the failed SSW. In effect was there any doubt to the outcome. 

2016/17 a definite transition year, hence the difficulty in attaining a clear signal. 

My attention is drawn to earth's proximity to the Sun as we speed up and reach the perihelion. 

Increased solar magnetism and WQBO will anchor the upper Stratospheric PV to Greenland zone. Until we exit perihelion at start of January 2017. (3 weeks)

Tropospheric PV becomes the player if a change is to occur, a change to colder. 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

[bluearmy]

Based on current eps data, tough to see where the vortex would actually centre itself as the mean will deliver quite a large area. Note the trough directed towards Europe.

worth noting that according to ian, glosea has continually seen a recovery in zonal flow later in December. This has led to Exeter being uncertain re second half of winter. 

 

[Singularity]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Based on current eps data, tough to see where the vortex would actually centre itself as the mean will deliver quite a large area. Note the trough directed towards Europe.

worth noting that according to ian, glosea has continually seen a recovery in zonal flow later in December. This has led to Exeter being uncertain re second half of winter. 

 

Is that with reference to 10 hPa or, at the other extreme, right down in the troposphere? I'd be surprised if it was the latter given the evidence for a disconnect in the foreseeable.

GEFS performed one hell of a jump today and now show the MJO saying a short hello to phase 3 before sweeping on toward the Pacific, albeit at low amplitude.

ECM is steady as she goes, but a bit sluggish for my liking. Given what GP just noted in the MOD thread about the equatorial low level winds and convective anomalies being much further east in the 12z data compared to 00z and 06z, I suspect a faster outcome is gaining traction.

The movement of the observed line more toward 5/6 instead of 3/4 is curious but of course means little unless that motion is sustained.

[Nick F]

PV kind looks to elongate towards Wern Canada rather than wholesale move there, with the otherside still pushing a trough into NE Europe/Russia.

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, Nick F said:

PV kind looks to elongate towards Wern Canada rather than wholesale move there, with the otherside still pushing a trough into NE Europe/Russia.

the models seem unsure as to whether to move the centre of the vortex to Canada, or stretch it across the pole in which case does it retain a centre or just stretch, prone to a wave 2 attack ?? 

[Nick F]

Looks like the wQBO has increased in strength from November's values with +14.16 on CPC, kind of to be expected I guess in early winter though but will surely help strengthen the PV.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

 

[KyleHenry]

19 hours ago, bluearmy said:

the models seem unsure as to whether to move the centre of the vortex to Canada, or stretch it across the pole in which case does it retain a centre or just stretch, prone to a wave 2 attack ?? 

The opportunity is definitely there and Synoptics are showing a decent period of time to allow wave 2 to mature. 

Its all about the energy and how much it can muster. 

Great to observe. GFS shows enough energy to move and elongate PV. Buffering and dampening but not destroying....yet. 

[bluearmy]

On the same theme, ecm 00z op shows a small split at 10hpa by day 9.5

and gefs runs today are showing a split up to 30hpa by day 11

 

[Recretos]

I do not see any split on that ECM chart. Just normal minute deep inner core oscillation. 

So either I dont have a clue about the stratosphere anymore, or the standard for what is a polar vortex split has really droped.

 

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, Recretos said:

I do not see any split on that ECM chart. Just normal minute deep inner core oscillation. 

So either I dont have a clue about the stratosphere anymore, or the standard for what is a polar vortex split has really droped.

 

We would love a split Andrej - the standard has dropped !!

Given the 30hpa/10hpa profiles at day 10, (and the gefs data) do you think it was headed that way ? 

You are much quieter this year - with ed absent, your 'expert' input would be much appreciated!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

This is a split!!!!

[bluearmy]

Well done Feb! 

Anyeay, back to the here and now, the 12z op ECM takes the core of the strat vortex to nw Canada/ne Alaska. That's on the same page as the GEFS and the GEFS splits the strat vortex up to 30 hpa thereafter. if this verifies, then it may not serve to do anything other than confirm that the vortex is continuing to struggle. Surely, to see vortex centres in n Siberia and nw Canada can only be a positive for blocking prospects this side of the NH as winter progresses. 

[booferking]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well done Feb! 

Anyeay, back to the here and now, the 12z op ECM takes the core of the strat vortex to nw Canada/ne Alaska. That's on the same page as the GEFS and the GEFS splits the strat vortex up to 30 hpa thereafter. if this verifies, then it may not serve to do anything other than confirm that the vortex is continuing to struggle. Surely, to see vortex centres in n Siberia and nw Canada can only be a positive for blocking prospects this side of the NH as winter progresses. 

We dont seem to have any luck so far with this weak vortex and looking further ahead it dont look to promising going by some of the updates on the model thread, so hard to lock in a decent cold spell for our wee region everything has to be spot on spoilers just seem to pop up out of nowhere.

Edited December 6, 2016 by booferking

[bluearmy]

Does this count andrej? 

Looks like it would get to 30hpa by day 11 as well. in line with GEFS 

Incidentally, zonal flow high up in yesterday's ECM op was largest so far this season and co incided with the dropping of wave activity up there to their lowest levels. 

Edited December 7, 2016 by bluearmy

[KyleHenry]

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Does this count andrej? 

Looks like it would get to 30hpa by day 11 as well. in line with GEFS 

Incidentally, zonal flow high up in yesterday's ECM op was largest so far this season and co incided with the dropping of wave activity up there to their lowest levels. 

I'm putting the likleyhood of a split at < 20%. 

We are going Millar B set up.

Long range the GFS has the snoptics right for UK pattern. 

Dependant on strength of wave 2. It can only shift PV enough for MLB of Azores and brieflly touching HLB. 

Probibility shows MLB of Azores and approximately 6 weeks (if no SSW evolves) to shift pattern to Millar A  and allow Azores HP to propagate upwards. 

That then dictates February to be the month for blocking to get a foothold.

Strong wave 2 required but at present it does NOT appear to have enough energy. 

[phil nw.]

I think as long as we continue with some disconnect in mean zonal wind forecasts between the upper and lower levels then we have opportunities for blocking if the MJO just now developing around IO moves eastwards in the coming weeks.Current projections still low amplitude phase 3 by most-get into 4 then at least mid-latitude blocking seems a likely analogue.

The 10hPa forecasts are on the increase whilst lower down little sign of them ramping up yet and still going below normal.

Below the day 10 ECM forecast alongside the gfs day 10 heights at 100hPa.

 

Clearly the signal is very much Atlantic ridging towards the UK as shown in the 500hPa ens for some days now.

I do agree though mid-latitude blocking looks like as much as we will manage until stronger trop wave breaking becomes apparent.

[Nouska]

On 07/12/2016 at 15:21, KyleHenry said:

That then dictates February to be the month for blocking to get a foothold.

Strong wave 2 required but at present it does NOT appear to have enough energy. 

The one long range model I have been impressed by - NCAR CESM - had been consistently showing a very cool picture for February - blinked last month - now back again . I know it is ice anomaly coupled but no idea as to whether it has stratosphere forecasting abilities. This sees the October/November pattern re-establishing with the cold managing to penetrate as far as the UK.

This is the model that Dr Ventrice has been singing the praises of, from a USA point of view. A rare success in model terms for October too, Eurasia wise.

http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/about/

 

Edited February 1, 2017 by Nouska

[Interitus]

8 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Does this count andrej? 

Looks like it would get to 30hpa by day 11 as well. in line with GEFS 

Incidentally, zonal flow high up in yesterday's ECM op was largest so far this season and co incided with the dropping of wave activity up there to their lowest levels. 

To repeat - hydrostatic balance - split is caused by tropospheric geopotential height pattern.

 

33 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

I think as long as we continue with some disconnect in mean zonal wind forecasts between the upper and lower levels

Disconnect??

10mb trending upwards towards the mean

 

150mb even more so, above mean...

 

...which reflects positive trop AO below

[phil nw.]

8 minutes ago, Interitus said:

To repeat - hydrostatic balance - split is caused by tropospheric geopotential height pattern.

 

Disconnect??

10mb trending upwards towards the mean

 

150mb even more so, above mean...

 

...which reflects positive trop AO below

Yet the forecasts at 100/70/50h and 30hPa on today's graphs still heading below-go figure!

Edited December 7, 2016 by phil nw.

[Interitus]

12 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yet the forecasts at 100/70/50h and 30hPa on today's graphs still heading below-go figure!

Which graphs?

[phil nw.]

Just now, Interitus said:

Which graphs?

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_2016_MERRA2_NH.html

[Interitus]

13 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_2016_MERRA2_NH.html

Forecast from 2nd December, well out of date. Go to sister site http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html forecast from today.

So for comparison 50mb increasing as per above - http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra2/u60n_50_2016_merra2.pdf

Edited December 7, 2016 by Interitus