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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17


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The current projected Wave 1 displacement of the stratospheric vortex looks to be following the script nicely. During the last few days and for the next 2-3 we will see a series of unusually deep

Well this is getting interesting and a possible game changer. Why chop down a tree when you can squash a seedling ? Following the lead of the models of late last week, we have begun to tick down

The importance here I think is the consistency over the GEFS in terms of pretty much all the ENS members falling below zero and obviously indicating a wind reversal, to an extent the GFS DET can do wh

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When the beast from above turns out to be a lower stratospheric Chihuahua..

1985 z10.jpg1985 z70.jpg1985 z100.jpg

time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_1985 (2).jpg

There is some suggestion here that a lower-upper stratospheric disconnect will exist this year, aided and abetted by the Canadian Warming. The 2000 warming event persisted a weak lower strat vortex well after the event. That may well be long enough to prevent any downward impacts from zonal wind increases. 

If the long term trend in modelling is correct over the Pacific, Wave 1 should again begin to take effect towards the end of the month.

Edited by Glacier Point
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17 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

When the beast from above turns out to be a lower stratospheric Chihuahua..

1985 z10.jpg1985 z70.jpg1985 z100.jpg

time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_1985 (2).jpg

There is some suggestion here that a lower-upper stratospheric disconnect will exist this year, aided and abetted by the Canadian Warming. The 2000 warming event persisted a weak lower strat vortex well after the event. That may well be long enough to prevent any downward impacts from zonal wind increases. 

If the long term trend in modelling is correct over the Pacific, Wave 1 should again begin to take effect towards the end of the month.

Ooh - you've answered my question to Tamara in the other thread... at least in part. As Lt George said to Gen Meltchett: "I'm as excited as a really excited person with a special reason for being excited, sir!"

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ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

ECMF showing the MJO getting on its bike days 13-16, UKME perhaps ready to follow suit and both keen on a stint in phase 3 (any clues to GloSea5 there I wonder?).

Increasingly I am seeing pointers for a mid-latitude block in our vicinity prior to any HLB. Does anyone else have similar ideas or am I being too simplistic?

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12 minutes ago, Singularity said:

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

ECMF showing the MJO getting on its bike days 13-16, UKME perhaps ready to follow suit and both keen on a stint in phase 3 (any clues to GloSea5 there I wonder?).

Increasingly I am seeing pointers for a mid-latitude block in our vicinity prior to any HLB. Does anyone else have similar ideas or am I being too simplistic?

A MLB ?  That would make a change !

tbh, I wouldn't want to guess how we might evolve to an HLB if we actually did get there - now the northern arm has woken up there are many routes on the table 

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17 minutes ago, Singularity said:

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

ECMF showing the MJO getting on its bike days 13-16, UKME perhaps ready to follow suit and both keen on a stint in phase 3 (any clues to GloSea5 there I wonder?).

Increasingly I am seeing pointers for a mid-latitude block in our vicinity prior to any HLB. Does anyone else have similar ideas or am I being too simplistic?

Perhaps like JMA 12z from last night, showed a High re-establishing itself over north west Europe again around Day 10. 

IMG_3212.GIF

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5 hours ago, Singularity said:

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

ECMF showing the MJO getting on its bike days 13-16, UKME perhaps ready to follow suit and both keen on a stint in phase 3 (any clues to GloSea5 there I wonder?).

Increasingly I am seeing pointers for a mid-latitude block in our vicinity prior to any HLB. Does anyone else have similar ideas or am I being too simplistic?

A few ensembles in the GEFS are doing that which then translates into height rises NE, but it could be just noise as the jet could fires back up flattening the retrogression leaving us with the next season of UK high or we get some sort of block NE, hard to tell as the ECM ensembles are singing a different tune so confidence is low. 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Nothing went wrong. That shows a perfect vortex on the edge of space. Doesnt mean that we will get a perfect vortex in the troposphere anytime soon.

I thought it was just a nice image. Of course it doesn't necessarily dictate how the troposphere will behave, however if that forecast is anywhere near correct there is a coherent unperturbed stratosphere vortex lower down also. Long way to an SSW or even minor warming from there.

NH_HGT_10mb_384.gifNH_HGT_100mb_384.gif

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25 minutes ago, karyo said:

After all those early good signs, what went wrong?

as is the case for most of the recent years something looks good to start with but fails in the end.

edge of the seat stuff close but no cigar.

i think mid lat blocking would favour even if the strat vortex gains strength,

i dont expect it to be as strong as last year, even so i think we are prone to under estimating the robust vortex.

i most certainly dont see any warming either for sometime yet.

but we were closer than ever this year,

i think as solar minima kicks in then maybe things will start to show more promise!

and as of recently a rise in the suns activity could well help to shake up the atmosphere to help establish a uptick in vortex strength which of coarse is not abnormal at this time of the year.

and the recent uptick in enso values more la nina may also be helping force break down our current blocked pattern in the coming week into next weekend.

as we see with 09/10 we first had over a year of a spotless sun. and 08 then 09/10 and couple of years after we had more chance of colder patterns at least 1 month of them years had wintry weather even here in the south.

things dont seem all that great this year,

so this is why a sustained period of spotless sun would be more of a sercurity blanket for colder setup with better and more favoured background drivers!.

it just dont seem we have it going for us this year going into 2017.

although i feel this year does have hints of 2008 which if im correct did see cold in april. and in jan was the first real easterly and snow event in the south for sometime.

but then ive always felt la nina winters are awful for colder winters.

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

 

but then ive always felt la nina winters are awful for colder winters,

 

Not really true, at least for the Netherlands  eg 84-5, 95-6 and of course 55-6, with the coldest month ever recorded in the Netherland. Average Hellmann number is around 74 for De Bilt for weak to moderate La Nina years (and if you exclude the 2 worst years(74-5; 99-00) numbers really shoot up)

Edited by ArHu3
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06_384_arctic1.png?cb=527

The 1 hPa vortex may be uniform but it's not very cold to go with that. A result of some wave breaks riding the surf zone perhaps?

06_384_arctic10.png?cb=527

10 hPa does not look pretty but as stated many times recently - there's scope for warding this off for 4-8 weeks via (in large part) tropical forcing on the lower vortex via the troposphere.

Speaking of tropical - we're not really in a La Nina, atmospherically. In fact, current global wind oscillations indicate a weak El Nino-like state. That's decoupled for you!

 

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The Day 10 forecasts are beginning to signal a moderate wave 2 warming event will occur in the upper and mid levels of the Stratosphere. Whether or not this leads to the collapse of the Strat PV remains to be seen. Let's first get this look within Day 5. 

wave_2.gif

Here is the ECM OP 10hPa at Day 10. Vortex is looking pretty elongated there. 

wave_2_ecm.png

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3 hours ago, Singularity said:

 

The 1 hPa vortex may be uniform but it's not very cold to go with that. A result of some wave breaks riding the surf zone perhaps?

 

It's normal to be warmer at the 1hPa level through descent caused by gravity wave driving, giving rise to the concept of a raised 'separated' stratopause above the vortex.

The GFS temps at 10mb 80°N are around 191.3K - only followed once by an SSW, more than 50 days later. In the meat of the vortex a 30mb temp of 195K has one SSW seven days later, a second 17 days later. So if a similar forecast prevailed, anything is going to probably be at least a month away from now.

Edited by Interitus
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The forecast ECM beginning to take the upper vortex across the pole on what is probably a journey to N of hudsons (the GEFS consistent on this). The high anomoly drifts from eastern Canada across to our north in response. Would still be an excellent profile to see imprinted on the trop for coldies. 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The forecast ECM beginning to take the upper vortex across the pole on what is probably a journey to N of hudsons (the GEFS consistent on this). The high anomoly drifts from eastern Canada across to our north in response. Would still be an excellent profile to see imprinted on the trop for coldies. 

Are you saying there is a possibility this may be mirrored in the trop?

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7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Are you saying there is a possibility this may be mirrored in the trop?

Always a possibility blizzard.  Not as simple as 2+2 =4 but I would say it would add to the likelihood that by Xmas/new year, the trop vortex would be N Canada and HLB has a decent chance to our north/northeast.  Generally, the strat footprint is never mirrored completely in the trop though and usually to the detriment of cold for nw Europe! 

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Always a possibility blizzard.  Not as simple as 2+2 =4 but I would say it would add to the likelihood that by Xmas/new year, the trop vortex would be N Canada and HLB has a decent chance to our north/northeast.  Generally, the strat footprint is never mirrored completely in the trop though and usually to the detriment of cold for nw Europe! 

Cheers BA. Fingers crossed that it will be our turn for the cold goodies.

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14 hours ago, snowwman said:

Does anyone have a free access source of CFS and GFS ensemble 60N mean zonal wind forecasts for the medium- long range? Been searching with very little success. Thanks.

Scrub this- I've found a source:

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra2/wind/u60n_10_2016_merra2.txt

 

. But where is the forecast surge in mean zonal 60N wind strength? Doesn't seem to me that the strat is behaving as forecast, though that may be me reading the data wrong.

Edited by snowwman
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3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Always a possibility blizzard.  Not as simple as 2+2 =4 but I would say it would add to the likelihood that by Xmas/new year, the trop vortex would be N Canada and HLB has a decent chance to our north/northeast.  Generally, the strat footprint is never mirrored completely in the trop though and usually to the detriment of cold for nw Europe! 

Right now, we have all of the pieces of the puzzle laid out in front of us -  projections for stratospheric and tropical developments and possible snow albedo feedbacks to name a few - but they keep on jiggling about which makes them frustratingly tricky to snap together :laugh:.

I really hope ECMF keeps up the tropical propagation signal to the Pacific in today's update and - better yet - the other models start to follow suit (though UKMET might already be there). To have that on our side as well would really be the springboard from which to launch a spell of nicely positioned HLB

 

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