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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17


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Too far out to take details too seriously, but it's been a long time since I saw a temperature anomaly profile like this at the top of the stratosphere in early winter - and things look kind of funky at 10 hPa too:

06_300_arctic1.png?cb=452 06_300_arctic10.png?cb=452

There's not much in the way of vortex stacking to be seen either. It looks like if we didn't take down the upper vortex, it'd gather strength in the lower levels and then troposphere in the vicinity of Greenland. No wonder the EPS means lost a lot (or all?) of the blocking signal to the NW when the stratospheric wave-breaking signals dropped out for a bit.

The recent improvement has tied in well with ECMF slowly amending its tropical convective outlook to one of continued activity as opposed to a decay into a quiet period.

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The current projected Wave 1 displacement of the stratospheric vortex looks to be following the script nicely. During the last few days and for the next 2-3 we will see a series of unusually deep

Well this is getting interesting and a possible game changer. Why chop down a tree when you can squash a seedling ? Following the lead of the models of late last week, we have begun to tick down

The importance here I think is the consistency over the GEFS in terms of pretty much all the ENS members falling below zero and obviously indicating a wind reversal, to an extent the GFS DET can do wh

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2 observations knocker

1) the cold has to go somewhere.  If there were no cold anomolys they would be weaker warm anomolys?  We can't really expect a flaccid mush of -55c across the whole hemisphere at 10hpa

2) if it was a strong vortex then it wouldn't be displaced to Siberia ? 

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Also... with GHGs blocking some radiation from the troposphere causing an overall colder stratosphere tendency (as has been discussed in threads like this before), -80 may not represent the same magnitude of gradient with the mid-latitudes as it once did. 

Just a thought - not got the time to find suitable observation data and look into this scientifically. 

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

b06a7205-cff0-4be5-a54e-907d7b85ed76.png

I actually did a facepalm; the vortex stretches across the pole as wave 2 activity builds on the Pacific and Atlantic sides, which is a precursor signal for split, though not a guarantee.

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Would prefer to see the height anomoly rather than temps. 

on the 12z ECM op, it looks as though at 10hpa,  the vortex is beginning to twist even further anti-clockwise as the Canadian high anomoly edges further east, pushing against it.  considering it is freely available on Berlin in a few hours, I don't see a big issue sharing part of it here - day 10

IMG_0474.PNG

 

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2 hours ago, SN0WM4N said:

[Snip]

Thanks for that, now I can see it's a 10 hPa chart, where it will indeed take longer to see a split than down in the lower stratosphere where one is achievable mid-Dec via the action of tropical forcing. Perhaps until beyond Dec - my apologies to Ventrice if he has visited this forum and thread, he has not made the error that I thought he had!

Good to see that there's still that displacement with the vortex under pressure from two sides. An important knock-on effect from the anticipated developments between now and mid-month; tropical forcing acting to improve the chances of a SSW by January while playing havoc with the troposphere in mid-late Dec (Pacific-Atlantic cross polar ridging etc.)

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Would prefer to see the height anomoly rather than temps. 

on the 12z ECM op, it looks as though at 10hpa,  the vortex is beginning to twist even further anti-clockwise as the Canadian high anomoly edges further east, pushing against it.  considering it is freely available on Berlin in a few hours, I don't see a big issue sharing part of it here - day 10

IMG_0474.PNG

 

Thanks ba - I can imagine the pace of this - and of the development on the East Asian/Pacific side - is uncertain enough to dilute the signal in the +360 ensemble mean quite a bit?

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2 hours ago, SN0WM4N said:

 

 

Rare to have a PV split this side of the New Year, particularly during a westerly QBO, though obviously we've seen the displacement - which is not that common either in a +QBO. Perhaps the strengthening and migration back to the pole is why the AO and NAO forecasts are trending away from the negative values to more positive values as low heights develop over Arctic as per current/recent EPS and GEFS. Be interesting to see if the forecast Aleutian High development will push poleward enough, as a synoptic feature of wave number 1, to have an effect on the PV if does indeed move back to the North Pole.

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Is it just me or do these experts just follow the models and are up and down as much as them,or why not show their workings etc and explain instead of showing the above?.

Even if it's right I'd rather not they post tbh.

I'm up for people like Gp,Tamara ect who are informative in their posts with reasonings and are always pushing the boundaries.

That's imo.Sorry if it offends anyone.

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8 minutes ago, joggs said:

Is it just me or do these experts just follow the models and are up and down as much as them,or why not show their workings etc and explain instead of showing the above?.

Even if it's right I'd rather not they post tbh.

I'm up for people like Gp,Tamara ect who are informative in their posts with reasonings and are always pushing the boundaries.

That's imo.Sorry if it offends anyone.

There's not much scope for teaching in a tweet!!

I haven't got access to the ECM stuff he has but had a look at the latest FIM charts as out to near 360 hours. The vortex core does not look to move much at all but the hang back to Canada seems to drop out. I'm thinking if this is replicated further down, there is more likelihood of northerly incursions or at least the jet on a southerly track.

wmag_10_f012.png  wmag_10_f336.png

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http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_300_arctic1.png?cb=817

I enjoy then colour scheme of these charts, shame there's no height contours to go with them.

Anyway - things look mighty interesting up there days 10-16 of the GFS 00z.

At 10 hPa a realignment is shown during this period as the Canadian positive anomaly shifts to the Atlantic and the vortex elongates along an axis from Canada to N. Europe.

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18 minutes ago, Frank_Wx said:

What's the difference between U wind on Attards site and this NASA "Merra" site?

Studio_20161127_085100.jpg

The main difference is Hannah's is at 65N, where as the Merra chart shown above is at 60N

Regards,

SK

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The difference between 60N and 65N being used in plots is around the shifting surf zone of the vortex and the vortex core given the predication for the vortex to move over the last 3 decades more to the Siberian side of the pole. The addition of the 65N level allows capture of this.

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13 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

The difference between 60N and 65N being used in plots is around the shifting surf zone of the vortex and the vortex core given the predication for the vortex to move over the last 3 decades more to the Siberian side of the pole. The addition of the 65N level allows capture of this.


There was a link in the new research section I thought was interesting and with your interest in solar geomagnetic influences ... any thoughts as to whether the PV might be responding to the magnetic core on earth?

http://www.esa.int/spaceinvideos/Videos/2016/05/Changes_in_strength_of_Earth_s_magnetic_field

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

8fd820d6-fe40-42fe-bdc4-7f06fb27bac0.png3a43561c-37cd-4b93-b336-f67058141dc3.png

That heat flux chart contrasts greatly with what Lorenzo posted earlier, and indeed what's generally expected by pros as a result of the poleward ridge.

That he uses 40-80 instead of 30-80 might have something to do with it? Also the lack of mention of the poleward ridge and likely disruptive effect on the tropospheric vortex makes me suspect he's either poorly informed or carrying out a bit of trolling activity. Then again I don't know who he is so I might be insulting an expert in the field for all I know :unknw::shok: (in which case I apologize... IF my other points are also wrong :ninja:).

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