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Paul

Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

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1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50432-griteaters-winter-outlook-17-18/

IMO an excellent read. The author says we get an EP La Nina, based on ENSO of this autumn and this research https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2155-z.pdf

I can see why you're keen to share that :D

East based does make things nice and interesting :) 

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OMG, not another rerun of 1962-63? How many of those have we been promised, these past 15 years!:shok:

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PV breakup for Christmas :shok: 

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Looking at the realistic future, say 6-10 days or so and the anomaly charts are inconsistent with one another and from day to day, so fence sitting as to the surface weather beyond say T+120 hours. Up to then one day milder and wetter one day colder and generally drier. Frost possible if ridges coincide with overnight periods. Even snow in showers for the Scottish hills, say above 1,000 ft and the highest peaks in N England. Beyond that and it looks, perhaps, the Atlantic may take over but I would rate it only 60% for that. Toss a coin comes to mind and I have no idea for the end of November let alone further out. Unless the Met O model seasonal output changes at the next issue (usually out soon after 10 th of the month) then I would feel little sign of any deep long lasting cold. Of course they could be wrong, so coldies can live in hope!

Edited by johnholmes
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4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Looking at the realistic future, say 6-10 days or so and the anomaly charts are inconsistent with one another and from day to day, so fence sitting as to the surface weather beyond say T+120 hours. Up to then one day milder and wetter one day colder and generally drier. Frost possible if ridges coincide with overnight periods. Even snow in showers for the Scottish hills, say above 1,000 ft and the highest peaks in N England. Beyond that and it looks, perhaps, the Atlantic may take over but I would rate it only 60% for that. Toss a coin comes to mind and I have no idea for the end of November let alone further out. Unless the Met O model seasonal output changes at the next issue (usually out soon after 10 th of the month) then I would feel little sign of any deep long lasting cold. Of course they could be wrong, so coldies can live in hope!

John have you perchance posted this in the wrong thread? Although it is quite normal to do it the other way round. :)

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

John have you perchance posted this in the wrong thread? Although it is quite normal to do it the other way round. :)

I get worse, Ill copy and try to post where it should be, thanks k

 

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12 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is that still showing an easterly QBO?

Yes. It all looks normal, unlike last year's abortive attempt.

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18 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is this a Canadian warming?

 

No doesn't look like a Canadian warming, just a small displacement which is common. No significant warming as pointed out by the 'cold bias' comment.

Note though that it is an ensemble forecast so will likely mask stronger vortex disturbances, but the actual worth of such a definite forecast at this range is questionable and the subject of the rest of that twitter thread which is well worth reading.

 

18 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes - 62 had an early canadian warming...

 

So did winter 1974/5

Edited by Interitus
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Nothing too in depth from me just a scan of where we are wrt  the development of the Stratasphere vortex.

The Tokyo site temp.graph at 30hPa(mid-level) and 10hPa (higher up)  shows cooling bang on average

pole30_nh.gifpole10_nh.gif

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/index.html

Looking at yesterday's data from the European site and the mean zonal winds graph

fluxes.gif

just trending up now with 20m/s showing at 30hPa.

However looking at the height profile yesterday and forecast day 10 we can see zero or -ve values(blue colour)north of 60N up to 50hPa which reflects the weakness of the tropospheric  vortex over the polar region currently shown on the daily nwp.

 ecmwfzm_u_a12.gifecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

signs of a stronger sub-tropical jet currently with the Atlantic polar jet running under par.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

I tend to think whilst zonal winds remain below 20m/s lower down then chances of Arctic blocking are higher and we seem to have that disconnect between 30hPa and lower down.The unknown is how long this will last before that increase in zonal winds higher up filter down.

Edited by phil nw.
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On 11/7/2017 at 13:52, Paul_1978 said:

Is that still showing an easterly QBO?

QBO is still strengthening and looks somewhat similar to 2014 in pace. It's standarized deviation is now -0.99 which is the most negative since April 2015. 

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24 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

QBO is still strengthening and looks somewhat similar to 2014 in pace. It's standarized deviation is now -0.99 which is the most negative since April 2015. 

Thanks SB. When you say "strengthening" do you mean in an easterly sense?

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1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

Thanks SB. When you say "strengthening" do you mean in an easterly sense?

Yes.

You can see on the Berlin charts that there's a -30 value further up and all that will sink down. The QBO is measured at 30hpa and 50hpa mostly so the big negative values are still to come. 

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Locking this now, 2017 thread now open:

 

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