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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

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13 minutes ago, Recretos said:

My test graphics showing GEFS U-wind forecast relative to the Climatology.

60.png   65.png

And zonal mean cross sections from ECM compared to GFS

ecmwfzmuf240.gif  u-componentofwindisobari.png
 

u-componentofwindisobari.png

can you elaborate on what your showing.thanks in advance

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7 hours ago, Recretos said:

My test graphics showing GEFS U-wind forecast relative to the Climatology.

60.png   65.png

And zonal mean cross sections from ECM compared to GFS

ecmwfzmuf240.gif  u-componentofwindisobari.png
 

u-componentofwindisobari.png

Does that bottom chart show easterly winds starting to show up over the North Pole?

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Another tweet from MV. Surely this is unusual for the southern hemisphere. From what I've read, rare to get SSW type events down there.

What does that do in layman's terms?

Edited by Gael_Force
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NH poleward heat flux:


time_series_cfsr_vt_100mb_2016_NH.png

 

Contrast to last year:

time_series_cfsr_vt_100mb_2015_NH.png

 

Here's another year picked entirely at random :whistling:

time_series_reanal_vt_100mb_2009_NH_10D.

(the Jan 2009 SSW looks particularly spectacular)

 

Very early days still though.

 

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@snowking

Thanks for the detailed and easy to understand reply. I've read about the warming arctic, in the troposphere, reducing thermal gradients but it never occurred to me it would be exactly the same response in the stratosphere.

Edited by Gael_Force

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 I have to think a lot about these words with the currnen trend for more zonal regime.

 

Judah Cohen tweets about the highest snowcover in 40 years in SIberia.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

@snowking

Thanks for the detailed and easy to understand reply. I've read about the warming arctic, in the troposphere, reducing thermal gradients but it never occurred to me it would be exactly the same response in the stratosphere.

And Dr Francis and others have done quite a bit of related research on this

Rutgers Climate Scientists Find More Evidence Linking Arctic Warming to Jet Stream Movement

http://news.rutgers.edu/research-news/rutgers-climate-scientists-find-more-evidence-linking-arctic-warming-jet-stream-movement/20150601#.WBiLUbNLX-l

 

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that should be headed to -58/-60 by around day 10. Whether it goes any warmer looks doubtful but it could level out for a while with the vortex displaced towards nw Russia/ne scandi area 

 

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Because of scrolling problems for some people I'll not embed the tweets but anyone care to comment on the two images and Ant Masiello's comments. Is he suggesting the strat is responding almost instantaneously to the solar geomagnetic activity.

https://twitter.com/antmasiello

CwNcTxPW8AAN3bR.jpg    CwNSzdrWEAEpaUb.jpg

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52 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

We shall see!...mainly posting this as a reference point so can actually see whether the GFS was on to something here, but SSW forecast...

modelanalysis.PNGmodelanalysis1.pngmodelanalysis2.PNG

Fascinating stuff !! So GFS is indeed going for a reversal towards the end of November- one must assume going off the METO seasonal that Glosea is seeing something similar, either way i will be amazed if we see a sustained vortex over Greenland moving forward :)

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The following paper has a list of the SSW events from 1957-2001 in Table 1:

http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/martius+polvani+davies-GRL-2009.pdf

4th December 1981 is the earliest I can see, so IF the above forecast comes to pass, would it be the earliest major warming in the record? 

Edit: There's a full compendium available, although it is still under review:

http://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/essd-2016-49/

http://esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/

Edit 2:

For example, here's the 1981 Dec 4th Event:

SSWC_uwndTemp_JRA55_19811204.png

 

Looks like a fantastic resource for comparing events.

Edited by Yarmy
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25 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

The following paper has a list of the SSW events from 1957-2001 in Table 1:

http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/martius+polvani+davies-GRL-2009.pdf

4th December 1981 is the earliest I can see, so IF the above forecast comes to pass, would it be the earliest major warming in the record? 

Edit: There's a full compendium available, although it is still under review:

http://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/essd-2016-49/

http://esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/

 

The winds temporarily reversed in 2000, the last time we had a Canadian warming.

http://mls.jpl.nasa.gov/joe/ManneyEtAl_warming_GRL_2001.pdf

An example of the cross purposes of so many events under one single banner; referred to in @sebastiaan1973's link above.

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7 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The winds temporarily reversed in 2000, the last time we had a Canadian warming.

http://mls.jpl.nasa.gov/joe/ManneyEtAl_warming_GRL_2001.pdf

An example of the cross purposes of so many events under one single banner; referred to in @sebastiaan1973's link above.

Winter 2000-2001 was very unremarkable in W-Europe though. The impressive 78-79 and 62-63 winters saw end januari ssw's 

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1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

Winter 2000-2001 was very unremarkable in W-Europe though. The impressive 78-79 and 62-63 winters saw end januari ssw's 

It was the best winter from 1997-98 to 2007-08 for the Manchester area according to the Manchester winter index, though.

I think SW Scotland and NI had two really big snowfalls that winter

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