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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

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The reason behind the odd QBO locking in earlier this year was due to the strong el Nino event. That explains a lot, actually.

In the ensemble with observed SSTs we find a strong and significant alignment of the ensemble members in the equatorial stratospheric winds in the 2 to 4 years after the strong ENSO event in 1997. This alignment also includes the observed QBO. No such alignment is found in the ensemble with climatological SSTs. These results indicate that strong warm ENSO events can lock the phase of the QBO.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070751/abstract

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Does anyone think that split will be sustainable for long enough to enable Tropospheric high latitude blocking to occur during December?

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So much confusion between the different levels of the atmosphere. Tweet linked by Knocker shows the wave activity is going upwards from the troposphere to impact the vortex in the stratosphere. Once the strat split happens, how long will it last and will it set in motion a process whereby the pattern can then go back downwards to maybe impact surface patterns for start of winter.

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On 22 Oct 2016 at 10:16, davster11 said:

A complete novice but the learning curve is steep following you guys.

I have a simple question, I won´t try backing it up with my personal arguments, I'll simply ask the question:
Has science ruled out the possibility that SSWs can contribute to significant cooling?

Bearing the rules of thermodynamics in mind, spreading a concentrated cooled down area to a large warmer area and having 
that area being cooled down again seems like it would....cool things down?

 

I have been thinking about this again and I think it is a nice thought experiment to add the Southern hemisphere into the equation. The SH is completely different to our half of the globe as it lacks large landmasses and mountain ranges at middle latitudes. This results in far less wave breaking, and subsequently SSWs are very rare. I think this is one of the reasons that Antartica is not warming as fast as the Arctic: the tight vortex makes the continent actually more isolated to warmth from lower latitudes.

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6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does anyone think that split will be sustainable for long enough to enable Tropospheric high latitude blocking to occur during December?

I guess in case of a split much depends on the actual positioning of the strongest part of the vortex (in the lower stratosphere). We should hope for the minor part to set up shop over Greenland with the bulk of all "blue and purple" concentrated over the Asian and Alaskan sector. If this works out well for us, I think we may have a good shot at it. 

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam
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I've done quite a bit of searching back in time as part of a work assignment, and have not found a comparable November at 30 hPa (less sure about 10 hPa) since 1948, though I've only taken one approach to diagnosing what went on in the past so I could have missed something. 

It leaves me wondering what on earth might happen during this coming month. The potential for wacky weather seems large on the face of it, but as ever, there can be no guarantees!

Edited by Singularity
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signs that the upper strat vortex beginning to get itself together as we head through week 2.  Heading towards Greenland, the splits becoming less evident and the flow slowly picking up. Berlin shows impressive wave 1 yesterday at day 10 towards the very top of the Strat - we would need that to propagate down to interfere with the development and displace it somewhat. Also, further trop wave breaking from amplified patterns down here would help. 

i wonder if glosea is seeing the strat vortex getting its act together through November. 

we are getting to the crucial period  where we see the strat vortex strengthen and build to recover  its early season slackness or suffer further hits from trop and strat wave breaking. 

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Interesting to map a way forward from here - the seasonal models in particular still want to imprint Nina esque blocking analogs.

Some tricky disconnects to map and my concern here is that the nuance or inflection gained from the huge wave driving in October will lead everyone off on a garden path to cold.

To caveat this the strat will get colder , the pause effect evident on the JMA temp plots...

pole10_nh.gifpole30_nh.gif

I wonder with respect to last winter and the prevalence of PSC ( Ozone Destroyers / Aid Vortex) that the strat running cold may in fact be a new feedback loop derived from the loss of Sea Ice, not reviewed the correlation between Sea Ice Loss and mean temps to examine this - just a thought.

Considering the blocked NH Polar profile and the atmospheric leniency to a) creating a blocking regime over Scandi in Autumn and recent held 'reads' of where blocking remains in situe for periods of time - am drawn to the double up of seasonal and Nina atmospheric vs Ocean state - this is the only identifier of a blocking area over Russia toward Kamchatka - also directly beneath the area may have spotted already on the model runs where pseudo warming has occurred in the last three years in the outer realms of GFS.

I appreciate that is incoherent to many who have not followed so to redact - the main blocking analog this season is in the region where we have seen the avenue to SSW. Whether this has credence - then the season will tell - at present it is too early as no sensible analogs exist for either the early season split, nor the template blocking regime exiting a strong long lived nino forcing state.

25.10 GEFS Attard.png28.10 GEFS Attard.png

u profiles from GEFS have relaxed from the vaunted Canadian Warming angle/ reversal - this I know is a trend as have got excited about this prior to vortex intensification in previous years, for Ed to reign me in! you can see the shift in projection and tightening of the ensembles as we exit the disruption of the anomalous heat flux. 

heat flux 2810.JPG2810u.JPG

Speaking of which is shown on the first plot a considerable incursion to the vortex and interesting to see it stick around the upper levels of the vortex, juxtaposed is the u response and note the disruption (blue) and the forecast acceleration in vortex activity from here. 

Some less pretty modelling I suspect for those inclined to enjoy the NH blocking anomalies as we enter the climatalogical vortex development phase.

Only a few days til Berlin gets fully on line and whilst this is what is there on the plots there is a wildcard sense of this heat flux infraction being quite rare so what will it do to vortex development, particularly when coupled to a disconnected Pacific with enhanced EA Jet and hastened Aleutian low right in the Butler SSW region. The plots almost painting what should happen vs the atmosphere giving clues as to why things may not be a route from a>b>c

 

2810.png

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1 hour ago, lorenzo said:

I wonder with respect to last winter and the prevalence of PSC ( Ozone Destroyers / Aid Vortex) that the strat running cold may in fact be a new feedback loop derived from the loss of Sea Ice, not reviewed the correlation between Sea Ice Loss and mean temps to examine this - just a thought.

@knocker posted a new paper in the climate section: looks at this and gives simulations for autumn GpH anomalies after summer ice free.

212764

It's looking very like what we are currently viewing on the output and maybe we are all cresting on a false signal till we see what happens when ice grows back.

 

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Quote

u profiles from GEFS have relaxed from the vaunted Canadian Warming angle/ reversal - this I know is a trend as have got excited about this prior to vortex intensification in previous years, for Ed to reign me in! you can see the shift in projection and tightening of the ensembles as we exit the disruption of the anomalous heat flux. 

Speaking of which is shown on the first plot a considerable incursion to the vortex and interesting to see it stick around the upper levels of the vortex, juxtaposed is the u response and note the disruption (blue) and the forecast acceleration in vortex activity from here. 

Some less pretty modelling I suspect for those inclined to enjoy the NH blocking anomalies as we enter the climatalogical vortex development phase.

I tend to disagree with the above re. recovery of the vortex and tightening of the ensemble members. Even in the "tightened" ensemble the strongest u mean winds do not even match the wind speeds from early October. Besides, I believe GFS's ultimate FI is tending towards a more displaced vortex in contrast to runs from a few days ago and, on top of that, todays ensemble shows that there are still options for a double dip-scenario (of course considering the limitations, 65NB only, of these graphs). 

u_65N_10hpa-2.pngu_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

 

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam
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Yes as Lorenzo posted the Strat continues to cool from mid-levels and above as normal.Nearer the surface very different with WAA continuing to disrupt the usual deepening and tightening of the lower vortex-some impressive heat flux charts from the Japanese site.

zuep_nh.gif

so the effect on the mean zonal winds is apparent right up to day 10 on the ECM forecast issued yesterday

ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

Negative values continuing to show at the higher latitudes.

 

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Remarkable 10 mb stratosphere chart here.

30ec49760e8bb44c8f9707ec2f9472f9.gif

If that was rotated ninety degrees anti-clockwise it would be a good example of a Canadian warming - bearing in mind the terminology is geopotential height displacement rather than temperature based.

Does anybody know if there are any analogues for this unusual configuration for early November?

Edited by Nouska
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