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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

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6 hours ago, Mattias said:

Nice to see this thread again! We are some guys from Sweden that’s been following the stratospheric discussions the past winters and we have been really inspired by this forum and the great stratospheric threads!

Many thanks for providing the archive charts for the 10mb stratosphere. Hope it is OK to use one of them below.

I cannot remember what 2009 looked like but certainly a whiff of 2010 in the 18Z GFS. Going for a split as early as 192 hours.

DiQw9kU.gif?1  2010 zgoKUz3.png

 

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When thinking back to several years past, it might be worth remembering that model upgrades since then have dramatically upgraded the horizontal layering in the strat (both ops and ens). back in 09/10, I think only the op ECM went up to the very top. if we are to see the strat playing a part in the onset of a colder pattern then it may be better signposted than back then. 

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With regards to false dawns do we have any data for 2002. I seem to recall that we saw a lot of northern blocking that Autumn which came to nothing come winter. 

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Welcome along to Netweather Mattias - great site and some cool charts - expect these to feature on here throughout Winter !

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2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

With regards to false dawns do we have any data for 2002. I seem to recall that we saw a lot of northern blocking that Autumn which came to nothing come winter. 

Then again, the winter wasn't devoid of cold either - 5th-19th December, 3rd-13th January and intermittent spells thereafter were cold. In fact, the January spell was the coldest for a long time in my location. It just wasn't particularly snowy.

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5 hours ago, MP-R said:

Then again, the winter wasn't devoid of cold either - 5th-19th December, 3rd-13th January and intermittent spells thereafter were cold. In fact, the January spell was the coldest for a long time in my location. It just wasn't particularly snowy.

Agreed, winter 2002/03 wasn't bad overall, especially considering 4 out of the preceding 5 were pretty poor to say the least.  In January 2003, I saw the two biggest snowfalls since at least February 1994 and although February 2003 didn't give any further snow it was often cold and anticyclonic until the final week.

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7 hours ago, lorenzo said:

Welcome along to Netweather Mattias - great site and some cool charts - expect these to feature on here throughout Winter !

Thank you Lorenzo! I look forward to follow the discussion in this thred throughout Winter :) Great to see the strong heat flux in the forecasts and I really like the links in your post above. The start of this seasons seems very promising :) 

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2 hours ago, lorenzo said:

Historic aggregate Heat Flux visible on the 50hPa forecast today.. record breaking anomaly if verified.

heat flux 30hPa.JPGheat flux 50hPa.JPG

Plots from here http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/flux_2016_MERRA_NH.html

Eddy Heat Flux also described on that page...

Variations of temperature are strongly affected by weather systems in the troposphere. Very large-scale weather systems or waves can move or propagate upward into the stratosphere. The upward propagation of these weather systems warms the polar region. We measure this upward flow of wave energy with the eddy heat flux. The eddy heat flux is the product of north-south (meridional) wind departures and temperature departures from their respective zonal-mean values. There is a strong anticorrelation between stratospheric temperature and the 45-day average of the eddy heat flux lagged prior to the temperature. A more positive value of eddy heat flux indicates that wave systems are moving into the stratosphere and are warming the polar region. Wave events distort the polar vortex and allow for greater mixing inside the vortex. These events can result in major and minor polar warmings.

My favourite site for watch these wave events is via Andreas Dornbrack's site utilising the ECM output -  You can lose yourself in the hypnotic nature of these images. Also refer back to the opener from Ed citing the classes of wave break and spot them on the loop.

http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=14

Exciting fragility with the vortex just now, just what happens when we take the block / rock out of the pond....

Another look at that block and Wave Activity Flux courtesy of JM

SLP > 500 > 30 > Flux

psnh_pen_hist_slp_201658.gifpsnh_pen_hist_z500_201658.gif

psnh_pen_hist_z30_201658.gifpsnh_pen_hist_waf300_201658.gif

 

 

 

Allowing for lag before the troposphere fully responds, that could suggest one hell of a response as we head into mid-November.

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Great updates everyone. Needless to say - this is making probability forecasting for the coming winter more exciting, but also risky!

Last year we had so many stable and well-established phenomena to guide our expectations. This year seems to be trying to get as far away from that as possible, and I look forward to seeing how it pans out, and how well we (the human race) manages to see what's coming before it lands - whatever it may be.

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Nice day 7 Strat update from GFS -

I would take that as a starter for 10

IMG_8738.PNG

S

 

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A complete novice but the learning curve is steep following you guys.

I have a simple question, I won´t try backing it up with my personal arguments, I'll simply ask the question:
Has science ruled out the possibility that SSWs can contribute to significant cooling?

Bearing the rules of thermodynamics in mind, spreading a concentrated cooled down area to a large warmer area and having 
that area being cooled down again seems like it would....cool things down?

 

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11 hours ago, davster11 said:

A complete novice but the learning curve is steep following you guys.

I have a simple question, I won´t try backing it up with my personal arguments, I'll simply ask the question:
Has science ruled out the possibility that SSWs can contribute to significant cooling?

Bearing the rules of thermodynamics in mind, spreading a concentrated cooled down area to a large warmer area and having 
that area being cooled down again seems like it would....cool things down?

 

Hei and welcome from neighbouring Norway ;)

I don't think science rules anything out per se, but a quick glance at the literature does not really yield any papers that directly address your question. I assume you mean cooling at the surface by the way? As far as I know IPCC assumes the stratosphere in general to cool down as a result of climate change. 

What comes to my mind is that, yes, stratospheric events can cause colder than average temperatures at lower latitudes but at the same time these events are usually accompanied by strong WAA that causes warmer than average conditions in other places, usually at high latitudes. For example, the average temperature yesterday in Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen, was +7.4°C in stead of the normal -6.5°C (winter has not arrived there at all so far, very concerning). Also, stratospheric events occur irregularly and are temporary in nature.

I think that global warming/Arctic Amplification (snow, ice, and vegetation albedo feedbacks) is causing the arctic to warm so rapidly and to such extend that it far outweighs any possible effects of temporary stratospheric events. 

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam
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On 2016-10-21 at 22:46, knocker said:

 

The evolution of the wave 2 disturbance is also nicely shown in the GFS forecasts with a significant tropospheric wave 2 pattern in the next couple of days. Then an increased wave 2 pattern can be seen at higher altitudes in the end of October with a westward phase tilt indicating upward propagation.

500_1025.PNG  wave2_1022.PNGwave2_1030.PNG

The wave 2 seems to fade in the end of the forecast range and the vortex is forecasted to somewhat recover. Instead there seems to be an increased wave 1 when moving in to november

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According to yesterday's ECM 12z op, we were only 10degrees latitude away from a modelled SSW (at the start of November!)

IMG_0433.PNG

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

According to yesterday's ECM 12z op, we were only 10degrees latitude away from a modelled SSW (at the start of November!)

IMG_0433.PNG

Wow what a start to the season. This reversal should propagate down into the troposphere over the 3 wks of so?  So although we have a cold first half of November looking likely could we be looking at extended cold spell induced by this reversal later through into November?

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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

According to yesterday's ECM 12z op, we were only 10degrees latitude away from a modelled SSW (at the start of November!)

IMG_0433.PNG

Fasinating Blue, might make for interesting times a few weeks down the line perhaps...:)

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The wave seems to be trop induced so no certainty that it would propagate back down. the longer that this wave activity interferes with the strat vortex organising itself the better for coldie propspects. 

 

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