Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

 

"Slightly stronger than normal"

Or, a tiny fraction away from the average?

Pedantic alert.

[jvenge]

10 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

"Slightly stronger than normal"

Or, a tiny fraction away from the average?

Pedantic alert.

Seems a confusion between normal and mean ;-) hehe

[sebastiaan1973]

 

 

[Blessed Weather]

And hopefully that will continue to produce some 500hPa charts similar to this evening's GFS 12z for early November!

[Dennis]

lets see what it brings 

[KyleHenry]

9 hours ago, Dennis said:

lets see what it brings 

More of an interest in the effects from such a strong energy source point.

with such a strong event, I'd be disappointed not to see an influential response in the Strat ( Dependant on tilt of PV)

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, KyleHenry said:

More of an interest in the effects from such a strong energy source point.

with such a strong event, I'd be disappointed not to see an influential response in the Strat ( Dependant on tilt of PV)

Your MJO graphic is out of date. The closest match in the archive to such amplification in October is 2006 ... don't know what the other teleconnections were doing then.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[bluearmy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php

 hadn't noticed this tool for looking at the gfs run for the entire globe. Helps to show the warm air getting north in the Pacific as KH alluded to in his above post 

excellent work sylvain! 

[Dennis]

3 hours ago, KyleHenry said:

More of an interest in the effects from such a strong energy source point.

with such a strong event, I'd be disappointed not to see an influential response in the Strat ( Dependant on tilt of PV)

This is newest MJO 

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

Your MJO graphic is out of date. The closest match in the archive to such amplification in October is 2006 ... don't know what the other teleconnections were doing then.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Nino and westerly QBO. 

The similarities are likely short term and the result of westerly wind bursts in the west and east Pacific's in late September (giving a temporary Nino like signal). 

[comet]

I would not be jumping the gun with regard to the MJO affecting the strat etc . correlation does not mean causation. We have seen strong MJO events in the past with little effect in the strat. In fact it could be strat influencing the MJO. Also the QBO definitely in the easterly phase.

[KyleHenry]

4 hours ago, Dennis said:

This is newest MJO 

I used that specific chart to show when the GFS first picked up this large sigma event in sector 5. 

Then attempt to estimate arrival time of kinetic energy into the lower Stratosphere. At the time I predicted approx 20-25th Oct. 

Forecast now shows the first week of November for the temp increase of wave 1. 

I don't expect any significant impact to PV,other than slight displacement. 

[KyleHenry]

3 hours ago, comet said:

I would not be jumping the gun with regard to the MJO affecting the strat etc . correlation does not mean causation. We have seen strong MJO events in the past with little effect in the strat. In fact it could be strat influencing the MJO. Also the QBO definitely in the easterly phase.

Question. Where do you surmise energy eminates from to allow temp rises in the Stratosphere and in those rare occasions what source/ sources of energy/geophysical conditions combine to produce a SSW?

If I'm looking for say an EAMT event. I look to MJO sector 3, and a significant break out from the COD region. 

Tropospheric HP needs to be aligned in the correct geographical position. This I believe this acts as a springboard towards access to the lower Stratosphere.

The PV needs to be in the correct angular momentum at the exact time of this event to accept the energy transfer and allow wave 1 or 2 to  progress into a SSW. 

Otherwise the wave is restricted in its strength to break through. 

I am also aware of the PV undulating in heights during rotation and convection phase of the Northern hemispheric winter period. To which this also adds an extra energy source for temp rises at the Strat level. 

Energic particles from solar radiation of the ionosphere down to the mesosphere and possibly lower, is another theory that I need more study of, regarding knowledge of all sources from which energy transfers into Strat. 

There is clearly a multilayered process, therefore there is a multilayered answer. But there is an answer.

The MJO, I believe a major key component in finding such an answer to forecast specific events in conjunction with above mentioned phases. 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

 

[comet]

20 hours ago, KyleHenry said:

Question. Where do you surmise energy eminates from to allow temp rises in the Stratosphere and in those rare occasions what source/ sources of energy/geophysical conditions combine to produce a SSW?

If I'm looking for say an EAMT event. I look to MJO sector 3, and a significant break out from the COD region. 

Tropospheric HP needs to be aligned in the correct geographical position. This I believe this acts as a springboard towards access to the lower Stratosphere.

The PV needs to be in the correct angular momentum at the exact time of this event to accept the energy transfer and allow wave 1 or 2 to  progress into a SSW. 

Otherwise the wave is restricted in its strength to break through. 

I am also aware of the PV undulating in heights during rotation and convection phase of the Northern hemispheric winter period. To which this also adds an extra energy source for temp rises at the Strat level. 

Energic particles from solar radiation of the ionosphere down to the mesosphere and possibly lower, is another theory that I need more study of, regarding knowledge of all sources from which energy transfers into Strat. 

There is clearly a multilayered process, therefore there is a multilayered answer. But there is an answer.

The MJO, I believe a major key component in finding such an answer to forecast specific events in conjunction with above mentioned phases. 

While I agree the MJO can sometimes given the right conditions aid in heat transfer to the strat it is not the be all and end all, far from it. Plus although heat transfer is of course important what is even more important is geopotential heights .

[Ruben Amsterdam]

I was going to write that y'all are a bit too enthousiastic: I do not see it as abnormal to have some minor dents in the vortex before the season starts. (Remember last year's quiet start, followed by an unleashed vortex the rest of the season.) But after today's 12z one eye is officially open:

 

[sebastiaan1973]

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0830.1

 

Edited October 22, 2017 by sebastiaan1973

[Interitus]

On 10/16/2017 at 20:39, knocker said:

 

Worth noting when forecasts were typically like below -

 

On 9/29/2017 at 12:00, sebastiaan1973 said:

Some of the latest CFS-runs shows record low windspeeds.

 

The sensitivity has be high enough to catch any warming events, but risks the strat forecast flipping with every twist and turn of the troposphere in long range.

Hence this trop based split is probably only of passing interest -

 

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Worth noting when forecasts were typically like below -

 

 

The sensitivity has be high enough to catch any warming events, but risks the strat forecast flipping with every twist and turn of the troposphere in long range.

Hence this trop based split is probably only of passing interest -

 

As if that post wasn't meant to be a tease lol

[SMU]

Whilst theres been a bit flip flopping the upcoming period 0-16 days generally the means of the strat models have depicted a down turn in zonal wind speeds - heading close to 1 standard deviation below ave-

so the tweet from Amy butler ( annoying taken when the output was rarely above ave ) is now well out of date

S

 

[Summer Sun]

Wrong thread, please hide

Edited October 23, 2017 by Summer Sun

[syed2878]

Hi guys QS to the mods I see folks are still posting in the 2016-2017 strat thread when are you guys going to start the 2017-2018 strat thread?

[Allseasons-Si]

Hey up!!,are we going to see an uptick,we will find out soon.

 

Edited October 23, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hey up!!,are we going to see an uptick,we will find out soon.

 

If it does, it will definitely only be a small and short lived uptick, looking at the ECM 10mb forecast.

[KyleHenry]

On 22/10/2017 at 22:20, blizzard81 said:

As if that post wasn't meant to be a tease lol

Big tease. We can see why it is running with the split around the 7th November.

GFS is reading the current east based Rossby formation, followed by another large sigma event in sector 3,4 or 5 of the MJO and equating that with a PV split at the 10 hPa level. 

Possible but far too early.

One definite, is that this current Tropospheric  amplification phase will show a repeat cycle again within 21 days. 

Model thread to be sent barmy, with switches from extreme cold to mild and vice versa every 36 hours.