Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

[chionomaniac]

Just now, Singularity said:

 

30 hPa just starts to feel the wave-2 from below at the end of higher-res and then it's all fine progress from there.

For once, almighty atmosphere, can a strong trend across multiple models please actually mean something rewarding? TIA 

Again we don't know how things will exactly work out tropospherically, but in my experience once we have that wave 2 upwell modelled across the board at day 10 then we know that the trop output will all have slightly different paths in the modelling but we end up with the same result. Best chance of deep cold this winter coming up imo.

[Singularity]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Again we don't know how things will exactly work out tropospherically, but in my experience once we have that wave 2 upwell modelled across the board at day 10 then we know that the trop output will all have slightly different paths in the modelling but we end up with the same result. Best chance of deep cold this winter coming up imo.

I share your intuitive sense. Over the years I have had the caveat 'at least for mainland Europe' practically beaten into me by the impact of countless shortfalls, but this time it feels like it might just be special enough to bring the UK in on the act.

Still only a chance, but that's meteorology for you 

[bluearmy]

12z ec not quite as promising as the 00z run but on the same page with split showing at 50hpa though a tad less enthusiastic at 30hpa than the 00z.

the warming post day 10 at 10hpa would be more in line with what GFS has been showing in the mid thirties rather than mid twenties. 

[Dennis]

[chionomaniac]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

12z ec not quite as promising as the 00z run but on the same page with split showing at 50hpa though a tad less enthusiastic at 30hpa than the 00z.

the warming post day 10 at 10hpa would be more in line with what GFS has been showing in the mid thirties rather than mid twenties. 

I would say that there is very little in it. If anything the wave 2 pinch on the vortex is more pronounced at 10hPa than this mornings run so that looks a little better. We don't want too much strength left in the Atlantic sector daughter vortex and would prefer this to be as west as possible (more so than modelled in the 12Z ECM)

[Allseasons-Si]

Still going up!!!,we need to see these go through the roof(close to 0c) but at the moment it's better than nothing

yesterday's to today's 10 & 30 hpa for comparison

i will keep monitoring these charts and saving them to see what progress they take.

[Dennis]

latest 100 and 150Hpa 

Edited January 30, 2017 by Dennis

[Allseasons-Si]

7 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Still going up!!!,we need to see these go through the roof(close to 0c) but at the moment it's better than nothing

yesterday's to today's 10 & 30 hpa for comparison

i will keep monitoring these charts and saving them to see what progress they take.

Edited January 30, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Nick F]

Nacreous clouds over Britain now

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/27/polar-vortex-brings-rare-multi-coloured-clouds-britain/?utm_content=buffer9e08e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

[bluearmy]

What a shame the journalist wasn't able to make a couple of calls to understand that v cold in the strat isn't necessarily v cold low down 

your slightly more intelligent than average John will be v confused if they read that article and try to make sense of it

incidentally , tech SSW somewhere between T66 and T80 on yesterday's ex op

just for ref as makes no difference if it we get reversal at 10hpa/60N or we don't now we know the overall route next 7 days 

[mountain shadow]

Given the extraodinary rise in temperatures at 10mb, do we now have an official SSW?

[Nick F]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Given the extraodinary rise in temperatures at 10mb, do we now have an official SSW?

I believe it's only an official SSW when there is a reversal of the zonal winds (+ to -) at 10 hPa / 60 N.

As you can see from the wind chart below, don't even get to 0, but as Chino said yesterday, we don't necessarily need a SSW to get HLB - also we may see a SSW attempt gain in Feb plus wave 2 attack to split the PV

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

31 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I believe it's only an official SSW when there is a reversal of the zonal winds (+ to -) at 10 hPa / 60 N.

As you can see from the wind chart below, don't even get to 0, but as Chino said yesterday, we don't necessarily need a SSW to get HLB - also we may see a SSW attempt gain in Feb plus wave 2 attack to split the PV

Iv always thought that once we see the fluxes charts showing the northerly direction towards the poles  then that, at least in my experience massively increases our chance of high latitude blocking. And now we can see the first time in a while we have this starting to happen? Great to see Feb beginning to take shape. Tick tock 

[Recretos]

Here are some of 00z ensembles, going for a gradual but small recovery. 

  

And a high resolution display from JMA GSM.

  

[Summer Sun]

 

[chris55]

As others have noted very close to a technical major SSW on ECM winds at 10hpa 60n down to 0.01ms at 72h , and may well reverse around this timeframe somewhere (The met office define it as major if the winds reverse).

More of a technicality than a huge change to what has been forecast but still nice to officially get a major warming. 

 

[chionomaniac]

0ZGFS has pretty impressive split right upto 5hPA by T+300. The displacement has forced the vortex to the Atlantic sector - hence the Atlantic pushing through a little more - the split means that it hits a brick wall - But the split and brick wall isn't quite ideally positioned ( so far) more like an ear off rather than down the middle. Give it time as the models often forecast the split quite well, but struggle with the exact amount of energy each daughter vortex receives. 

[bluearmy]

54 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

0ZGFS has pretty impressive split right upto 5hPA by T+300. The displacement has forced the vortex to the Atlantic sector - hence the Atlantic pushing through a little more - the split means that it hits a brick wall - But the split and brick wall isn't quite ideally positioned ( so far) more like an ear off rather than down the middle. Give it time as the models often forecast the split quite well, but struggle with the exact amount of energy each daughter vortex receives. 

Looks impressive at 10hpa late on though!

[feb1991blizzard]

Oh yes sir!!!!!!

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2017013006&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

Proper cold end to winter and beginning to spring if that verified.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks impressive at 10hpa late on though!

It does, that's the 6z.

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It does, that's the 6z.

Good point - imagine Ed would be rather more interested in that fi !

too much inconsistency at that range but shows how much potential exists with a possible split 

[Paul_1978]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh yes sir!!!!!!

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2017013006&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

Proper cold end to winter and beginning to spring if that verified.

Massive pinch of salt when it's at T+384 though. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

Massive pinch of salt when it's at T+384 though. 

Yes and especially when that's the first run (or there haven't been that many at least) that has shown us a Jan 09 style split.

 

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Good point - imagine Ed would be rather more interested in that fi !

too much inconsistency at that range but shows how much potential exists with a possible split 

Yes I am dubious because to me the level of warming doesn't look like it would produce such a split, the warming isn't much different to previous runs yet the split is spectacular.

 

To anyone new to strat monitoring looking for a cold spell to develop, keep looking at the heights (not just the temps) and look to see if that can make it into the reliable timeframe, nothing guaranteed but if we can, we are right in the game.

[chionomaniac]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes and especially when that's the first run (or there haven't been that many at least) that has shown us a Jan 09 style split.

 

Yes I am dubious because to me the level of warming doesn't look like it would produce such a split, the warming isn't much different to previous runs yet the split is spectacular.

 

To anyone new to strat monitoring looking for a cold spell to develop, keep looking at the heights (not just the temps) and look to see if that can make it into the reliable timeframe, nothing guaranteed but if we can, we are right in the game.

It not a warming based split though - this is a trop based internal upwell split on a weakened vortex rather than a over the top after riding the surf zone type.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It not a warming based split though - this is a trop based internal upwell split on a weakened vortex rather than a over the top after riding the surf zone type.

Do you think though that the wave showing in the trop could propagate that high and split the vortex so far and wide, the heights don't look that impressive in the trop surely, this split goes nearly to the top of the strat, is this plausible without some help from a top down warming event Ed?  i like to see the oranges on the strop chart at a high latitude, this only has high(ish) heights, not ridiculously high heights. 

Edited January 30, 2017 by feb1991blizzard