Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

[Duane S.]

That is an eye popping top of Strat reversal now at D8 on this morning's Berlin charts...

Further down, pole temps off the scale...

 

Edited January 22, 2017 by s4lancia

[chris55]

 Not far off an official SSW, big reversal at 1hpa but only down to about 7ms at 10hpa. But that's down from a high of around 58ms at the end of December!

Edited January 22, 2017 by chris55

[Summer Sun]

 

[Spah1]

 

[bluearmy]

Which fits in with exeters view of a double warming wave to force a convincing reversal 

[Arthur1882]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Which fits in with exeters view of a double warming wave to force a convincing reversal 

Where have they said this? do you have a link?

Reading the recent 30 day METO predictions, even as recently as yesterday, gave little comfort to those of us wishing for SSW to transform our winter

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, Arthur1882 said:

Where have they said this? do you have a link?

Reading the recent 30 day METO predictions, even as recently as yesterday, gave little comfort to those of us wishing for SSW to transform our winter

Read Karlos post from yesterday. 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Arthur1882 said:

Where have they said this? do you have a link?

Reading the recent 30 day METO predictions, even as recently as yesterday, gave little comfort to those of us wishing for SSW to transform our winter

Because 30 days only takes us to mid Feb. The Strat warming impact not likely until late February or early March.

[chris55]

42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Because 30 days only takes us to mid Feb. The Strat warming impact not likely until late February or early March.

If we get some Strat Troph feedback from the initial warming - which is looking strong at day 10 from the ECM, though not an official SSW....yet - I'd expect to see some influence before the 20th Feb!

Though with the inconsistent forecast from both GFS and ECM for the initial warming, until we settle on a consistent and more reliable direction i would think any long range MET forecast will be wary of nailing their colours to a SSW induced cold spell.

[Paul_1978]

54 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Read Karlos post from yesterday. 

Is Ian's view the "official" Met view though?

[Summer Sun]

 

[chris55]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Do we need to see a collapse?

Well that depends if a displacement can impact the tropospheric pattern for the UK and encourage some high Lat blocking!! We shall see.

[Nick F]

26 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Do we need to see a collapse?

Well that depends if a displacement can impact the tropospheric pattern for the UK and encourage some high Lat blocking!! We shall see.

I wouldn't pin hopes too much on a displaced strat PV encouraging high latitude blocking, certainly not for a few weeks at least. If anything, IMO the displaced PV over towards our part of the northern hemisphere may encourage an enhancement of cyclonic activity over the N Atlantic for a bit - perhaps why the models are keen on the Atlantic ramping up in the medium to extended range. Also it is still uncertain whether we'll see an official SSW and displacement (i.e. zonal wind reversal 60N/10 hPa).

I would much prefer to see the polar vortex split rather than displaced, as this would more likely encourage high latitude blocking over the Atlantic / N Europe sector. However, a split looks unlikely for now, as would need an anomalously high wave number-2 hit on the stratosphere as well.

Currently we have anomalously high wave-1 activity concurrent with MJO wave propagation warming the stratosphere and nudging the PV off the pole. But the jury's out whether it'll be an official SSW with PV displacement. We may need to wait until mid-Feb for another rapid warming, as wave 1 activity will still perhaps be favoured with an Alaskan stratospheric high and MJO propagation looks to enhance again as it emerges back out in 7/8/1 after we lose the signal to COD for a bit.

Given the westerly QBO this year and weak ENSO, we are really reliant on poleward vertical trop wave activity/MJO wave propagation putting pressure on the strat PV, but will it be enough to save our winter? Well, it will probably take a few attempts to obliterate the PV, it if does, but it may be too late by the time it does to save winter, but could bring another cold start to spring!

[blizzard81]

From what I can gather, the general consensus is that there will be no quick downwelling from strat to trop. What leads the experts to this conclusion?

[bluearmy]

41 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

From what I can gather, the general consensus is that there will be no quick downwelling from strat to trop. What leads the experts to this conclusion?

It may lead to wintry conditions for nw europe

clearly this cannot happen so the downwelling will be slow and destroy our chances of a warm spring! 

 

 

[chris55]

32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It may lead to wintry conditions for nw europe

clearly this cannot happen so the downwelling will be slow and destroy our chances of a warm spring! 

 

 

hint of sarcasm blue?.... or do you think this potential SSW will be nothing more than a chilly march? 

[Frostbite1980]

I don't think anyone knows just yet, surely there is as much chance of the PV displacing over Scandinavia allowing for potential HLB to establish over Greenland as there is the PV being displaced to an area where it opens the door to an onslaught of depressions from the Atlantic? 

[bluearmy]

46 minutes ago, chris55 said:

hint of sarcasm blue?.... or do you think this potential SSW will be nothing more than a chilly march? 

Sarcasm chris

i have no idea but hardly much response from the extended ens modelling to take a neg AO so seems unlikely to me we will see a quick response 

[bluearmy]

Just now, Frostbite1980 said:

I don't think anyone knows just yet, surely there is as much chance of the PV displacing over Scandinavia allowing for potential HLB to establish over Greenland as there is the PV being displaced to an area where it opens the door to an onslaught of depressions from the Atlantic? 

The extended ens remain keen on the vortex re establishing nw Greenland/ne Canada which means a greeny block can't establish. 

[Frostbite1980]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The extended ens remain keen on the vortex re establishing nw Greenland/ne Canada which means a greeny block can't establish. 

But aren't the extended ens as they are now before the warming has even taken place? If so the ens could significantly change once the warming has taken place/taking place? 

[booferking]

We will be looking to the west-NW not the east for the block mark my words.

Edited January 22, 2017 by booferking

[Frostbite1980]

On the subject of PV displacement I found this a good (but long) read. Apologies if it has already been shared https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/01/a-displaced-polar-vortex-and-its-causes/ 

[bluearmy]

46 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

But aren't the extended ens as they are now before the warming has even taken place? If so the ens could significantly change once the warming has taken place/taking place? 

The ens are modelling the warming. As are the ops. the effect of the warming  is shown on each ens member as it evolves out to day 16.  Trop and strat are one model. A few of them show a quick response and those generally show a neg AO. The eps are a mystery to us and the only feel for how many of those show a QTR is to look at how strong a neg AO looks on the eps. Doesn't look good. 

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ens are modelling the warming. As are the ops. the effect of the warming  is shown on each ens member as it evolves out to day 16.  Trop and strat are one model. A few of them show a quick response and those generally show a neg AO. The eps are a mystery to us and the only feel for how many of those show a QTR is to look at how strong a neg AO looks on the eps. Doesn't look good. 

18z maybe trying it's best for a QTR

[Frostbite1980]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ens are modelling the warming. As are the ops. the effect of the warming  is shown on each ens member as it evolves out to day 16.  Trop and strat are one model. A few of them show a quick response and those generally show a neg AO. The eps are a mystery to us and the only feel for how many of those show a QTR is to look at how strong a neg AO looks on the eps. Doesn't look good. 

Oh not what I wanted to hear but thanks for the explanation. Hopefully the ens are behaving as badly as they have most the winter and we get a bit of luck with a flip over the coming days.....thanks again blue!