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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
15 hours ago, knocker said:

And also tied to a solar pattern that dives into a Dalton or Maunder Minimum. Lots more 'weirdness' to come over the years.   This isn't unprecedented ground....

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
On 19/11/2016 at 12:33, Gray-Wolf said:

If we're bringing 'sunspots' into it then shouldn't we be recalling another 'odd' strat event back in Feb where a forecast event decided to reverse itself? Could it be that what we were seeing in the forecasts were the models trying to 'capture' , and forecast from, extreme global data? Global Sea ice area/extent sits 8 standard deviations away from the 1980/2010 'mean' and Arctic temps are up to 20c above their 'mean' for the time of year?

Could the 65N SSW just be a result of what a model does with when it's firm limits meets with data outside those limits?

or it could be sunspots..........

Odd for 50+ years of data.  Not a big set to refer to is it really.  I don't know why though GW

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
21 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

And also tied to a solar pattern that dives into a Dalton or Maunder Minimum. Lots more 'weirdness' to come over the years.   This isn't unprecedented ground....

 

BFTP

When you say it isn't unprecedented what period(s) were you thinking of?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

SSW increasingly unlikely now

"Does this mean the vortex will reestablish itself and make it harder for UK to get realcold!?"

 

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

SSW increasingly unlikely now

 

I am pretty sure it has been doing this for a while now in both directions, ie overshoot in stead of forming an extreme only to form an extreme a few days later. Let's hope that happens again tomorrow

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
On 3. 11. 2016 at 20:20, Recretos said:

 

And here is a graphic I made, which shows latest GEFS ensemble means, and it shows a decent negative bias from GEFS, which means that in the early forecast hours it underestimates the vortex strength, which mainly has to do with the positioning, and goes too low also in the later stages, which is also a case of positioning. A thing worth noting when interpreting GEFS ens mean forecasts. 

geffs5.png

As I have showed before, the GEFS/GFS have a certain bias, where they have the vortex too weak/displaced. And now the new bias analysis showed the same thing, this one made with even more runs. 

geffs.png

 

Something to consider in the future.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
3 hours ago, Changing Skies said:

Great! *sarcasm*

whoever is forecasting December I wish you the best not following the script is it? 

Hmm.....are these model outputs just as "flimsy" as mainstream model outputs? 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Hmm.....are these model outputs just as "flimsy" as mainstream model outputs? 

D10 ECM strat charts have proved generally fairly reliable over the years.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

D10 ECM strat charts have proved generally fairly reliable over the years.

Weren't we looking at a ssw and split a few days ago on ecm as well?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Weren't we looking at a ssw and split a few days ago on ecm as well?

Not sure about SSW but there has been a backtrack _ generally though I think they've been good.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
38 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Weren't we looking at a ssw and split a few days ago on ecm as well?

Nope although what has changed on the ECM output is the departure of neg flow post the reversal up to about 65N day 5/6 with the restoration of a weak zonal flow high up at high lat 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Very very weak i know but is this the first signs of GP's wave 2?

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014110218&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

That looks suspiciously like the trop chart for the same timescale

caution urged re the vortex aligned Siberia across to Canada - it could be on the move but bit early to say how it will settle in two weeks 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Berlin zonal flow charts look bit better this morning and the temp and geop wave 1 forecasts also 

the height charts from the 00z run were also better than yesterday's 12z re the axis of the vortex towards scandi rather than Iceland - need that imprint onto the trop profile as that is currently trending more towards the Atlantic on the extended eps.  

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
27 minutes ago, Ruben Amsterdam said:

Edit: can's seem to get rid of the last image, shouldn't be there

I cannot see any of your images but agree wholeheartedly with the text part. :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Dr. Cohen tweet on the dramatic difference between today's GEFS forecast 10mb GPH and anomaly for early Dec this year compared with where we were last year. (Charts based on this morning's 0z run).

Cohen tweet 23 Nov GEFS PV anomaly.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

looking at the strat output from the 12z ECM and if only we could get the 50/30hpa heights to imprint onto the trop, we would be looking at a cold outlook for nw Europe . I expect the weak zonal flow to again show on tomorrow's Berlin chart latter stages. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

As mused yesterday, the Berlin charts are with plenty of further wave 1 interest later on. if we see that picture verify then no evidence that the vortex is firing up anytime soon. zonal flow at day 10 quite exceptional for early December 

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