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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I get the feeling way may fall just short of a technical SSW but the damage will surely be done for a while. Need to look for more activity to follow - good to kick the old chap whilst he is struggling! 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Yesterday ended a 27 day run of spotless sun (old money spots)  and I think that has had something to do with the NH set up we are seeing.  1 spot yesterday,

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
45 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yesterday ended a 27 day run of spotless sun (old money spots)  and I think that has had something to do with the NH set up we are seeing.  1 spot yesterday,

 

BFTP

Have we passed 2010 yet (around 50).

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

No we still head down to minima....bit ominous signs imo for a deeper minima.  

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

If we're bringing 'sunspots' into it then shouldn't we be recalling another 'odd' strat event back in Feb where a forecast event decided to reverse itself? Could it be that what we were seeing in the forecasts were the models trying to 'capture' , and forecast from, extreme global data? Global Sea ice area/extent sits 8 standard deviations away from the 1980/2010 'mean' and Arctic temps are up to 20c above their 'mean' for the time of year?

Could the 65N SSW just be a result of what a model does with when it's firm limits meets with data outside those limits?

or it could be sunspots..........

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Spotted the u plot on Thursday but decided to leave it on desktop for a few days.. there is a lot of fun going on up there just now across nearly all levels and differing views. Favourite strat movies today are;

 the 475K PV Plot on Andreas Dornbacks site. Loop here... http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=7 

and http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=2 

and http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/arctic/anim_T_0070.html

Latest u aggregate across 70-90

U Vortex 19.11.PNG

Interestingly, this intensification is a very short lived affair, you lose the impact of the 1200m wave 1 at D1,D2 -  another 1200m wave> 1600m follows it.

4.gif6.gif

Heat flux plot from this afternoon.

Heat flux 19.11.PNG

Static D10 475K levels - roughly 50 and 10 hPa, then trop

ecmwfpv600f240.gifecmwfpv850f240.gifecmwfpv380f240.gif

Don't think the modelling is at it's limits - looks coherent to me..spell binding watching this, especially having not seen anything similar at this time of year previously.

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Yesterday's shows the ECM 12z op removed the upper strat reversal of winds beyond day 6 in a departure from previous output. need to wait a further 24 hours to know if this is a trend or an anomolous run. 

Perhaps the current NOAA strat data from 30hpa might give us a clue. 

EDIT: just checked the 00z ECM strat data and it appears yesterday's 12z run was too keen to restore the Siberia/Greenland axis on the vortex. The 00z remains more displaced axis along the meridian as before with the hang back tail to N America 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
58 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yesterday's shows the ECM 12z op removed the upper strat reversal of winds beyond day 6 in a departure from previous output. need to wait a further 24 hours to know if this is a trend or an anomolous run. 

Perhaps the current NOAA strat data from 30hpa might give us a clue. 

EDIT: just checked the 00z ECM strat data and it appears yesterday's 12z run was too keen to restore the Siberia/Greenland axis on the vortex. The 00z remains more displaced axis along the meridian as before with the hang back tail to N America 

Good news Blue, don't want that vortex anywhere near Greeny .. :)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

A question for Discussion:

when we usually see an SSW or come close, we see a notable deceleration in upper strat zonal flow which then clearly becomes a reversal up to a certain latitude or level in the upper atmosphere.That must have quite large ramifications (think of the effect of a turning bicycle wheel with spokes which aren't fixed and then shove a stick into a fairly quick turning wheel). 

We have a very gentle flow high up above 60N so any reversal will cause far less consequences ??? Unless we see a strong reversal of zonal flow (as some gefs have shown ) then I don't see any reason for consequences in the trop from any upcoming SSW or close to. Surely what we are looking for is more disruption to the establishment of a strong strat vortex and further warmings /wavebreaking are going to be useful in this regard. I'd rather see a continuation of what we have had high up for the past four weeks than a technical SSW which quickly reverts to a strengthening positive flow thereafter. I don't see an SSW as some kind of silver bullet, given where we start from. 

With that in mind, further trop amplification required. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

At the moment we do seem to be looking at displacement of the middle and lower vortex towards Siberia as we could expect given the ongoing warmings over the Canadian side.

ecmwf30f240.gifecmwf150f240.gif

which at least favours a continued weak Atlantic pattern i would say Blue.Mind you a full SSW would more likely give us a split rather than a displacement.As we see now a displaced main vortex is still prone to leave segments across Greenland from time to time which hinders proper Greenland blocking.Still it's early days and with the pv understrength who knows what may happen with further wave breaking.

 

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Cohen tweeting that recent GFS runs are backing off from a PV split. He will update his blog tomorrow (Mon 21st Nov):

Cohen tweet 20 Nov PV split update.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Would agree. The displacement at present could be beneficial in time to come but a split might just cause the secondary lobe to be positioned in a place where we would see more westerly influence. While the big cog is east of us there's scope for retrogression but if it moves to the west you're back to square one.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I havent seen any convincing evidence that an upcoming SSW would initiate a split . Looks displacement ( if it comes) with the Canadian high pushing the vortex well into Siberia. Possible that a small daughter would shear off the Atlantic tail and end up over N America but that's only shown on a few fi runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I havent seen any convincing evidence that an upcoming SSW would initiate a split . Looks displacement ( if it comes) with the Canadian high pushing the vortex well into Siberia. Possible that a small daughter would shear off the Atlantic tail and end up over N America but that's only shown on a few fi runs. 

If anything any signs of a SSW have faded for now Blue anyway.Looking at day 10 the mean zonal winds heading back up to around 20m/s at 10hPa/60N.Still a much weaker vortex than usual of course but yes we are looking at displacement for now.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

If anything any signs of a SSW have faded for now Blue anyway.Looking at day 10 the mean zonal winds heading back up to around 20m/s at 10hPa/60N.Still a much weaker vortex than usual of course but yes we are looking at displacement for now.

as I posted earlier Phil, the ECM op 12z run was a bit different compared with previous output and this mornings 00z re the upper strat  flow. If the upcoming run looks like the 00z run then expect the zonal negs to reappear post day 6

 

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

On what conditions do we speak of a Canadian Warming, I wonder? 
Is there a wind reversal required, at 60 N, 10 hPa?
If not, will we meet the conditions in the near future, looking at the morning EC progs?

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html CW data don't always match a SSW.
 

 CW 1997.PNG

Edited by Paul123
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
29 minutes ago, Paul123 said:

On what conditions do we speak of a Canadian Warming, I wonder? 
Is there a wind reversal required, at 60 N, 10 hPa?

From the late Karin Labitzke's definitions ....

http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/News15/15_Labitzke.html

Canadian Warmings often happen in early winter. They take place when the Aleutian stratospheric high intensifies and moves poleward. The Canadian warmings can reverse the meridional temperature gradient and sometimes briefly change the zonal wind direction over the polar cap, but nevertheless they do not lead to a breakdown of the cyclonic polar vortex.

So, no, does not seem reversal of zonal winds always to be expected. IMO, we've already reached the criteria to call it a Canadian warming. The fact they are looking at standardising all the different definitions may change this but as it stands, good enough for me.

 

Edited by Gael_Force
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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands
1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

From the late Karin Labitzke's definitions ....

http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/News15/15_Labitzke.html

Canadian Warmings often happen in early winter. They take place when the Aleutian stratospheric high intensifies and moves poleward. The Canadian warmings can reverse the meridional temperature gradient and sometimes briefly change the zonal wind direction over the polar cap, but nevertheless they do not lead to a breakdown of the cyclonic polar vortex.

So, no, does not seem reversal of zonal winds always to be expected. IMO, we've already reached the criteria to call it a Canadian warming. The fact they are looking at standardising all the different definitions may change this but as it stands, good enough for me.

Thank you for answering my questions, so a Canadian Warming it is. 
It is quite a lot of years ago (16) when the last one occurred! It still is possible, despite the AGW.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Frustratingly the ECM 12z op swings back to reflect closer  to yesterday's 12z run re the axis of the vortex so I expect a zonal flow chart with less negs again post day 6. Probably not quite as poor as yesterday so will be interesting to see if the blues survive to day 10!

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

After seeing Knockers post, above, I think it could be interesting times for our Stratosphere Boffins?

Will we be running to catch up by the end of next week?

After the trouble with the QBO this past Feb are we still trusting that our models can pick up on 'weirdness' that such Polar oddness might drive ( or be being driven by?)?

Strange times eh?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

 

 

On 18 November 2016 at 18:09, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yesterday ended a 27 day run of spotless sun (old money spots)  and I think that has had something to do with the NH set up we are seeing.  1 spot yesterday,

 

BFTP

Huh? It's not just been spotless for 27 days!? Check www.solen.info/solar and solarham.net 

Edited by Uncle_Barty
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