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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17


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The current projected Wave 1 displacement of the stratospheric vortex looks to be following the script nicely. During the last few days and for the next 2-3 we will see a series of unusually deep

Well this is getting interesting and a possible game changer. Why chop down a tree when you can squash a seedling ? Following the lead of the models of late last week, we have begun to tick down

The importance here I think is the consistency over the GEFS in terms of pretty much all the ENS members falling below zero and obviously indicating a wind reversal, to an extent the GFS DET can do wh

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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I still love watching that video animation.. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122

    Thanks Guys for the excellent and very informative introduction 

    To the thread,not a topic i am well up on,but the expertise of you 

    Guys is second to none,and makes learning alot easier 

    Keep up the excellent work,i wil be watching this thread in the

    Coming months. 

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Interesting indeed Malcolm...

    Let's see how back on track the discredited Cohen metaphors can go this year, sorry am not buying any of them.

    Yes we have rampant 60N and south Snow advance early in season, sadly the feedback loops - bust by solar max - are poor correlations to winter predictive outlooks.

    r( correlation) will sync with SAI within a parameter where Smax or Smin is not in effect - however as an informer of natural winter progression it is not a useful steer.

    Pacific Variability including IO

    Atl SST

    Vortex Strength

    Sea Ice

    these are the four drivers... Guess which one I know holds the final sway given the thread ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    Just looking through Dr Butler's tweets following @knocker's post above, and noticed this from 1 day ago. 

    And AO still looking to stay negative until at least 1st Nov  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

    So many confusing signals - I guess that's why we all find it so interesting!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow

    So it seems development of the polar vortex has been weak so far this autumn.

    Can anyone explain what an anomalous and meridional flow is and how that is linked to heat flux and its impact on thermal gradients?

    GP mentioned the westerly wind being restricted to the southern hemisphere (I take it he's talking about the QBO?) - I wonder if this is linked to the SH not following its usual pattern of final warming?

    Edited by Frozen Britain
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  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

    Thanks GP, quick question to anyone who can answer really, this bit:

    "That is near perfect geoeffective positioning for upward wave (Wave 1) deflection into the vortex leading to a push of the vortex towards the North Atlantic"

    Wouldn't that mean a +NAO for us and a stronger jet? Or is this what we'll have to have before further blocking can take hold towards end of Nov?

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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd

    Having read gp and rubens in depth summary of the stratosphere.  What is the most likely scenario weather wise out of this weak vortex??  Or like most on netweather need to know. Will this provide a cold and snowy outlook in the nxt few months.  Hope so 

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  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
    1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

    I know it sounds counter intuitive tcc, but there are good reasons for a weak vortex and more precisely a weak zonal wind flow during November to substantiate a tropospheric ridge in the mid Atlantic. Other drivers [ENSO state, Maritime Continent forcing] are aligned nicely to deliver this.

    Thanks GP, be interesting to see what happens!

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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd

    Ruben stop it now lol. Everything seems a bit odd weather wise this autumn.  Maybe were on to something totally new to the world weather.  A big change on the way maybe??  Who knows.  All I want is some cold ❄ ❄ 

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  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
    2 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

    Well this is getting interesting and a possible game changer. Why chop down a tree when you can squash a seedling ?

    Following the lead of the models of late last week, we have begun to tick down on a warming signal and significant weakening of zonal wind speeds in the middle and lower stratosphere. Both GEFS, GFS and EPS remain solid on developing this.

    The operational GFS getting close to a reversal..

    u_65N_10hpa.jpg

    And right down the middle of the GEFS mean, some members dropping into reversal..

    u_65N_10hpa_gefs.jpg

    The EC EPS is similar and would give a sizeable clustering around +5 to +8 m/s. That is one weak vortex. Already. Even if we were to assume worst case scenario, those two GFS members going up would still translate to a sizeable negative zonal wind anomaly.

    The mid tropospheric modelling continues to develop a deep upper lower dominating the North Pacific in the week 2 time frame.

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_52.jpg

    That is near perfect geoeffective positioning for upward wave (Wave 1) deflection into the vortex leading to a push of the vortex towards the North Atlantic. We are yet to see these being manifested in the strat modelling as they are a little way off, so a weak vortex looks set to become event weaker.

    IMG_2901.JPGBeen waiting for effect of MT event in early October to evolve. 

     

    IMG_2900.JPGIMG_2899.JPGSOI showing a neutral balance from slightly positive to negative. Delicate balancing. 

    Last years Kara Sea High still resinates, an indicator of transition to Solar min. 

    I believe the OPI prediction will work this year as there is no El Niño and a less energy from the Sun. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Saved these early this morning from the 00z gefs run

    these are ens mean charts remember

    gives a flavour of the environment that the strat vortex will be attempting to develop in 

     

     

    IMG_4484.PNG

    IMG_4485.PNG

    IMG_4486.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    2 hours ago, Ruben Amsterdam said:

    It's getting hard to hide excitement with the 06z ramping things up even further. I do not recall seeing charts like this so early in the season, 2010 was more modest, wasn't it?

    GFSOPNH06_384_41.png

    Interesting chart, but it's for 5th November (T+384). How reliable are these charts at such ranges?

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    Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
    24 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    Interesting chart, but it's for 5th November (T+384). How reliable are these charts at such ranges?

    I have observed them to be approximately 85% to 90% accurate in terms of the actual event but as to how much energy the wave contains that will have to be verified when ECMWF on Berlin  Uni site reaches the 25th October. 

    For the professionals they have GLOSEA5,ECMWF and GFS to compare in the here and now but cannot disclose. 

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