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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17

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I still love watching that video animation.. :)

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Thanks Guys for the excellent and very informative introduction 

To the thread,not a topic i am well up on,but the expertise of you 

Guys is second to none,and makes learning alot easier 

Keep up the excellent work,i wil be watching this thread in the

Coming months. 

C.S

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Interesting indeed Malcolm...

Let's see how back on track the discredited Cohen metaphors can go this year, sorry am not buying any of them.

Yes we have rampant 60N and south Snow advance early in season, sadly the feedback loops - bust by solar max - are poor correlations to winter predictive outlooks.

r( correlation) will sync with SAI within a parameter where Smax or Smin is not in effect - however as an informer of natural winter progression it is not a useful steer.

Pacific Variability including IO

Atl SST

Vortex Strength

Sea Ice

these are the four drivers... Guess which one I know holds the final sway given the thread ;)

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Just looking through Dr Butler's tweets following @knocker's post above, and noticed this from 1 day ago. 

And AO still looking to stay negative until at least 1st Nov  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

So many confusing signals - I guess that's why we all find it so interesting!

 

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So it seems development of the polar vortex has been weak so far this autumn.

Can anyone explain what an anomalous and meridional flow is and how that is linked to heat flux and its impact on thermal gradients?

GP mentioned the westerly wind being restricted to the southern hemisphere (I take it he's talking about the QBO?) - I wonder if this is linked to the SH not following its usual pattern of final warming?

Edited by Frozen Britain
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Thanks GP, quick question to anyone who can answer really, this bit:

"That is near perfect geoeffective positioning for upward wave (Wave 1) deflection into the vortex leading to a push of the vortex towards the North Atlantic"

Wouldn't that mean a +NAO for us and a stronger jet? Or is this what we'll have to have before further blocking can take hold towards end of Nov?

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Having read gp and rubens in depth summary of the stratosphere.  What is the most likely scenario weather wise out of this weak vortex??  Or like most on netweather need to know. Will this provide a cold and snowy outlook in the nxt few months.  Hope so 

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1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

I know it sounds counter intuitive tcc, but there are good reasons for a weak vortex and more precisely a weak zonal wind flow during November to substantiate a tropospheric ridge in the mid Atlantic. Other drivers [ENSO state, Maritime Continent forcing] are aligned nicely to deliver this.

Thanks GP, be interesting to see what happens!

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It's getting hard to hide excitement with the 06z ramping things up even further. I do not recall seeing charts like this so early in the season, 2010 was more modest, wasn't it?

GFSOPNH06_384_41.png

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Ruben stop it now lol. Everything seems a bit odd weather wise this autumn.  Maybe were on to something totally new to the world weather.  A big change on the way maybe??  Who knows.  All I want is some cold ❄ ❄ 

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2 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

Well this is getting interesting and a possible game changer. Why chop down a tree when you can squash a seedling ?

Following the lead of the models of late last week, we have begun to tick down on a warming signal and significant weakening of zonal wind speeds in the middle and lower stratosphere. Both GEFS, GFS and EPS remain solid on developing this.

The operational GFS getting close to a reversal..

u_65N_10hpa.jpg

And right down the middle of the GEFS mean, some members dropping into reversal..

u_65N_10hpa_gefs.jpg

The EC EPS is similar and would give a sizeable clustering around +5 to +8 m/s. That is one weak vortex. Already. Even if we were to assume worst case scenario, those two GFS members going up would still translate to a sizeable negative zonal wind anomaly.

The mid tropospheric modelling continues to develop a deep upper lower dominating the North Pacific in the week 2 time frame.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_52.jpg

That is near perfect geoeffective positioning for upward wave (Wave 1) deflection into the vortex leading to a push of the vortex towards the North Atlantic. We are yet to see these being manifested in the strat modelling as they are a little way off, so a weak vortex looks set to become event weaker.

IMG_2901.JPGBeen waiting for effect of MT event in early October to evolve. 

 

IMG_2900.JPGIMG_2899.JPGSOI showing a neutral balance from slightly positive to negative. Delicate balancing. 

Last years Kara Sea High still resinates, an indicator of transition to Solar min. 

I believe the OPI prediction will work this year as there is no El Niño and a less energy from the Sun. 

 

 

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Saved these early this morning from the 00z gefs run

these are ens mean charts remember

gives a flavour of the environment that the strat vortex will be attempting to develop in 

 

 

IMG_4484.PNG

IMG_4485.PNG

IMG_4486.PNG

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2 hours ago, Ruben Amsterdam said:

It's getting hard to hide excitement with the 06z ramping things up even further. I do not recall seeing charts like this so early in the season, 2010 was more modest, wasn't it?

GFSOPNH06_384_41.png

Interesting chart, but it's for 5th November (T+384). How reliable are these charts at such ranges?

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24 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Interesting chart, but it's for 5th November (T+384). How reliable are these charts at such ranges?

I have observed them to be approximately 85% to 90% accurate in terms of the actual event but as to how much energy the wave contains that will have to be verified when ECMWF on Berlin  Uni site reaches the 25th October. 

For the professionals they have GLOSEA5,ECMWF and GFS to compare in the here and now but cannot disclose. 

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