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Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?


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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I noticed that the Express has its usual extreme Winter weather hype article for the USA. 

It reads:  "USA winter... SNOWMAGGEDON- Prepare for a WORLD RECORD big freeze El Nina winter".

The UK is not mentioned at all in the article, so going on past form, maybe this is a good omen for us here in the UK for a bit of the old snowmaggedon?:rofl:

 

Not sure if anyone is following the Laymans sunspot count, on the Landscheidt site? They have been predicting a 200yr grand sunspot minimum coming up and are comparing the current cycle to SC5 of 1798, so that would be just before the birth of Charles Dickens, and we all know what winters were like around that time.

It will be interesting to see what effect this might have on the next few winters as we are on the cusp of entering this exceptionally low solar minimum.

:rolleyes:

 

 

sc5_sc24_1-2.png

Edited by snowray
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The state of the Arctic accepted, there are some potentially interesting parallels to 1962-1963.Adding to what has already been written.

ENSO 1963: ENSO neutral in 1963 verging on weak La Nina. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

ENSO 2017: Uncertain. Forecasts range from ENSO neutral verging on weak La Nina, to Moderate La Nina

QBO 1963/2017: Both easterly QBO.

Solar activity 1963/2017: Both winters taking place in the low part of the solar cycle

Stratosphere 1963: From my understanding Canadian warming and subsequent weakening of vortex in early winter 1962.

Stratosphere 2017: Zonal wind plot forecasts suggesting polar vortex may start the season weaker than average. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php

So, there you have it, La Nina could go moderate and render the parallels to 1963 obsolete, the polar vortex could suddenly ramp up strength after a promising start like last year, but interesting nevertheless. How many winters in the last 100 years have met 1963 on all the above conditions?

I am a believer in nature "balancing itself out", as it were, and with our recent mild winters streak, and drought in Spain,  feel perhaps a winter with lower pressure over Europe is due. I think 1962/1963 gave something like 300% of usual rainfall to parts of the Iberian Peninsula (as did 2009/2010)  

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I was struggling to find stratospheric archives, but from what I could see the only really good match on the other conditions is 1996-1997. A winter with a cold December (2.9), and a cold January (2.5). 1956-1957 seems to have been after the solar minimum, not before. For what it's worth, that winter was mild. Though there was a white christmas in places. 

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Bearing in mind that the winter of 1963 had a Cet of -0.3 and 1947 1.1 with  1979 backing up at 1.57 this winter has a lot to do.The fact is in almost 40 years since the great 1979 only 4 winters have been lower than 3.0 deg ,three of these were in the 1980s and only 2010 the most recent at 2.43.Certainly since the cluster of cooler winters around 2010 things have reverted back to the warming we are all accustomed to for the last 20 years .

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

As someone who is a total amateur when it comes to weather knowledge, I think a winter like 78/79 or one of the mid 80s ones (I know 09/10 was very close) is more achievable if a cold winter was to occur.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
On 14/10/2017 at 08:21, Weather-history said:

I point out we have a benchmark for cold for recent times, December 2010, the actual benchmark is -1.5C for a 31 day period, the coldest 31 day run up to Christmas since at least 1772.

Also we got March 2013 but the benchmark is actually early March to early April 2013 with a CET of 2.4C, which is remarkable. March 2013 actually got colder as the month went on, which in these climatic times of warmth domination, staggering. Remember the CET was 4.9C by the 9th and ended up at 2.7C.

 

 

March 2013 really was remarkable. With a CET of 1.9C, the second half of the month (defined as 16th-31st) comes in at joint third since 1772. Astonishingly cold for such a sustained period given the time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
On 14/10/2017 at 16:15, Steve Murr said:

Taken in isolation the closest QBO match for Sep 17 is sep 62 ;)

That's what I like to see!! :-)

Seriously if I look back 10 years ago I'd be thinking the infamous "your kids won't know snow" article from 2000 was pretty spot on. But as others have pointed out since then I've seen the coldest March in 50 years, the coldest December in over a 100 years, times when we've been told to go home from work  before the snow got too bad and s time when my kids were stranded in Ireland because snow closed the airports in the UK.

Granted the last four years have been very poor, but within the last ten there have been winter experiences new, such as part of the River Lea freezing over. Moreover my kids now know the magic of snow, something that once upon a time they only heard about from my memories.

So optimism rules my heart.  I think if every 10 day chart from last winter proved accurate, it would have been fantastic. I never let the disappointment of probable reality completely vanquish my feeling of joy when hopes and expectations soared.

It will happen again. It's just a case of recognising the clues to predict when it does :)

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
14 hours ago, Timmytour said:

That's what I like to see!! :-)

Seriously if I look back 10 years ago I'd be thinking the infamous "your kids won't know snow" article from 2000 was pretty spot on. But as others have pointed out since then I've seen the coldest March in 50 years, the coldest December in over a 100 years, times when we've been told to go home from work  before the snow got too bad and s time when my kids were stranded in Ireland because snow closed the airports in the UK.

Granted the last four years have been very poor, but within the last ten there have been winter experiences new, such as part of the River Lea freezing over. Moreover my kids now know the magic of snow, something that once upon a time they only heard about from my memories.

So optimism rules my heart.  I think if every 10 day chart from last winter proved accurate, it would have been fantastic. I never let the disappointment of probable reality completely vanquish my feeling of joy when hopes and expectations soared.

It will happen again. It's just a case of recognising the clues to predict when it does :)

I also suppose that solar activity would be close to the 1962-1963 winter as well in terms of where the minimum is. 

All depends how you weight stuff, I guess :-) 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I also suppose that solar activity would be close to the 1962-1963 winter as well in terms of where the minimum is. 

All depends how you weight stuff, I guess :-) 

 

The 'weighting' is what makes be tend to refrain from attempting LRFs, jvenge: though, personally, I don't pay a great deal of attention (none at all TBH!) to sunspot #, it would be nice if Solar activity could somehow be linked to (not dubiously correlated with) SSW events...?

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The 'weighting' is what makes be tend to refrain from attempting LRFs, jvenge: though, personally, I don't pay a great deal of attention (none at all TBH!) to sunspot #, it would be nice if Solar activity could somehow be linked to (not dubiously correlated with) SSW events...?

I don't take any notice of it, to be honest. It is nice to see some of the analogs that people put out there, but if you limit your analogs to two things, like say QBO and Solar, surely there is a whole lot of stuff you are ignoring as well.

I'd find it unlikely the long term models have it nailed on just yet (if they can ever be said to), but not sure I'd trust an analog from 50 odd years ago over them ;-)

Still, it is a good read on a forum. If I saw someone basing a forecast on it, though, I think that's where the interest would stop for me.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Oh dear, this sort of thread could lead to a lot of thrown toys...

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

 

Here's a reanalysis of the Nov 1962 SST anomalies (below - bottom) - the standout thing for the Atlantic is the big cold anomaly to our SW - which no doubt helped encourage jet stream splits and troughing into Europe during the winter months. The anomaly in the Pacific is also of interest with cold water south of Alaska and then warm water (relative to average) right on the US W coast - which I'd think would favour a US/Canada West coast ridge to pump warmth up into the Arctic.

Looking at SST right now - anomnight.10.16.2017.gif

It's almost the opposite in terms of the 2 anomalies I described. Based off these, the implication is that we're looking at US West coast troughing and ridging on the US East Cast and potentially mild winter for W Europe - not what we want to hear. As we know,  SST are just one factor though and do change quite considerably through Oct/Nov as Atlantic storms churn the ocean - so any forecast based off these ought to wait a couple of months.  

 

 

1962 Nov, SST Anomalies

1962 SST anomalies.png

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
21 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Oh dear, this sort of thread could lead to a lot of thrown toys...

haha not really.  The idea is to speculate without  it being taken as serious comment!  So many of us wish a winter to compare, it's a good place you put things that make you hope for it, without the inevitable archive charts from November 1962 posted up in the model thread that allude to a similar existing set up! :)

 

Actually i can find optimisim anywhere.  Beng's post fills me with hope. Maybe we've been so busy looking for similarities that have never, in the end paid off, that it will turn out to be the actual oppositie that delivers the goods!!  :):)

Edited by Timmytour
afterthought
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
17 hours ago, Timmytour said:

haha not really.  The idea is to speculate without  it being taken as serious comment!  So many of us wish a winter to compare, it's a good place you put things that make you hope for it, without the inevitable archive charts from November 1962 posted up in the model thread that allude to a similar existing set up! :)

 

Actually i can find optimisim anywhere.  Beng's post fills me with hope. Maybe we've been so busy looking for similarities that have never, in the end paid off, that it will turn out to be the actual oppositie that delivers the goods!!  :):)

I know :D Tongue was firmly in cheek with that last post I made in this thread

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Hopefully I'm aloud to put this in here mods.

Latest video from Gav is of interest if hoping for a cold winter and a classic one at that! Check out the winter analogs related to a wet September (from about 33 mins in).

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2017-18-forecast-uk.php

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

The Mount Agung volcano in Indonesia could hold the key.  It last started erupting in 1963 more or less coinciding with the ending of one of our greatest winters.

There's been a lot of speculation that it's about to erupt again.  But this is using measurements that were not possible at this time in 1962.  so what if, in actual fact, exactly the same conditions existed in 1962 at this time of year? 

The pressures that are building up might have an influence on the world's weather, and turn our winter into an absolute freezing snowfest ...all ready for the volcano to burst into life come March 2018 and once again signal an end to one of thre greatest.

As longshots go, this is one of the longest.....but anything that generates hope!!  :)

  

Edited by Timmytour
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Just to add to this thread - there will no doubt be another winter 'like' 1947/63 all be it moderated in terms of surface temps by probably about 0.5-1c. However because most of the flow is continental & the cold at the surface embedded then modification could be somewhat mitigated.

So its a case of when instead of 'if' however we are talking in the context of within the next 50 years-

 

Is it this one- well all I would say is the overall global drivers show a higher chance than ave of seeing something below normal- that's about as much detail as you can put on it at this stage..

All eyes on the zonal wind speed come mid Nov...

S

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Suppose we were to get a repeat of the synoptics that caused all that snow in February 1991? What might we expect: maxima of around -3 instead of 1991's -5, and an even stronger 'lake effect', due to higher SSTs?:yahoo:

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On 30/10/2017 at 13:51, Timmytour said:

The Mount Agung volcano in Indonesia could hold the key.  It last started erupting in 1963 more or less coinciding with the ending of one of our greatest winters.

There's been a lot of speculation that it's about to erupt again.  But this is using measurements that were not possible at this time in 1962.  so what if, in actual fact, exactly the same conditions existed in 1962 at this time of year? 

The pressures that are building up might have an influence on the world's weather, and turn our winter into an absolute freezing snowfest ...all ready for the volcano to burst into life come March 2018 and once again signal an end to one of thre greatest.

As longshots go, this is one of the longest.....but anything that generates hope!!  :)

  

Stange thing to hope for as volcanic episodes that lead to global cooling for a protracted Time, cause famines and ultimately deaths on a grand scale  :sorry:

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
On ‎31‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 19:55, Mokidugway said:

Stange thing to hope for as volcanic episodes that lead to global cooling for a protracted Time, cause famines and ultimately deaths on a grand scale  :sorry:

But hoping for things has absolutely no bearing on whether or not they come to pass. So what you say is completely irrelevant.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
On 10/14/2017 at 22:18, hillbilly said:

Bearing in mind that the winter of 1963 had a Cet of -0.3 and 1947 1.1 with  1979 backing up at 1.57 this winter has a lot to do.The fact is in almost 40 years since the great 1979 only 4 winters have been lower than 3.0 deg ,three of these were in the 1980s and only 2010 the most recent at 2.43.Certainly since the cluster of cooler winters around 2010 things have reverted back to the warming we are all accustomed to for the last 20 years .

It's probably worth pointing out that decades like the 60's and 80's were abnormally cold. If you look at the 70's for example then none of the first 6 winters was cold (nothing better than average overall) and even in the 90's only 1 of the first 5 (we then got 2) were cold. Last decade we had 2 of the first 8 that were average before getting three cold winters on the bounce. This decade we are at two average winters (2013 and 2015 - would have been three but for Dec 15). 

I certainly don't regard this decade as been worse than 1998-2008 period and it's not all that much worse than the 70's. 

The main thing i do think we have lost is those abnormally cold months in mild winters, the best attempt recently being Feb 12 probably.  

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Well the first 2 weeks of February 2012 was abnormally cold in the south-east/east and then went very mild...so that month panned out near average.

Most of the 1970's weren't as mild as some of the winters we have just experienced...certainly milder winter months now than experienced even in the late 80's and late 90's.

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