Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?

[hillbilly]

The cet may have been 3.6 but this area averaged 1.75 for the month which i think is the coldest march here and would have been subzero on high ground,amazing to think mild air came during the 3rd week .

[damianslaw]

15 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

90's and earlier cold Feb's were guaranteed, so was snow and easterlies, but since 2000 the m/e has seen an increase in Atlantic air, Feb I think the month that's changed the most

We didn't have that many cold Februaries in the 90's, 1991 was the coldest at 1.5 degrees, not an especially cold month, Feb 96 next at around 2.4 degrees (I think), followed by 1994. Most were mild, especially 1990, 1992, 1997 and 1998. 

The 80's did produce a few cold ones, 1985 and 1986 notably, 1983 also preety cold, 1980, 1984 and 1987 were below average as well, though 1988 and 1989 were very mild ones. 

After a long run of average to very mild Febs between 1996 and 2009, we have since seen quite chilly ones with decent cold and snow, notably but nothing long lasting, first halves of 2009 and 2012 were very cold, 2010 and 2013 were consistently chilly throughout without ever being freezing cold, even last feb produced some coldish conditions, and first part of Feb 2015 was quite cold and snowy in the north at least, only 2011 and 2014 you could describe as being devoid of any particularly cold/chilly conditions. 

 

(sorry for digressing away from winter 62/63 and 46/47). A disruptive month for snow and cold weather was Jan 1940, not often mentioned in the same vein as those winters but every bit as severe.

Edited October 9, 2016 by damianslaw

[cheeky_monkey]

not had a really cold Jan since 1987 at 0.8c which is only because of that short intense cold spell..last sub zero Jan was 1979..it now ranks as the longest time for any of the winter months..(Dec = 2010, Feb = 1986) since the last occasion...strange how only in the 20th century and now that Jan & Feb have the same CET... previously Jan historically was much colder than Feb.

[damianslaw]

Reply to above, Jan 2010 was preety cold I think 1.4 degrees, it produced an average second half in the main after a very cold first half, though it turned colder again towards the end, locally I suspect some parts recorded a colder Jan than 1987 - Scotland in particular.

[Timmytour]

I am all for tenuous links in what is only a bit of fun, so here's a statistic which maybe doesn't indicate a 47/63 type winter, but offers some hope of at least some respite from the dross of the last couple of years....

The September CET was within 0.8C of July's this year.  Since 1921, there have been 20 years, including this year, where the difference in the two CETs has come to under 1.5C.  In the 19 ensuing winters, not one of the months registers as within the top twenty-five warmest for the respective month. But they have included two of the 20 coldest ever Januarys and one of the ten coldest ever Decembers.

There's hope for you there....though were I to draw conclusions about the winter based on previous Jul-Sept CET differences, I would say we are in for a distinctly average winter. But even that would be an improvement on late!! 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

16 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I am all for tenuous links in what is only a bit of fun, so here's a statistic which maybe doesn't indicate a 47/63 type winter, but offers some hope of at least some respite from the dross of the last couple of years....

The September CET was within 0.8C of July's this year.  Since 1921, there have been 20 years, including this year, where the difference in the two CETs has come to under 1.5C.  In the 19 ensuing winters, not one of the months registers as within the top twenty-five warmest for the respective month. But they have included two of the 20 coldest ever Januarys and one of the ten coldest ever Decembers.

There's hope for you there....though were I to draw conclusions about the winter based on previous Jul-Sept CET differences, I would say we are in for a distinctly average winter. But even that would be an improvement on late!! 

Well it's probably no more tenuous than the above average September preceding an average to mild Winter link some seem to believe in, so if anything this just goes to prove the point that many of these links have occurred by nothing more than chance alone. I made this point in the Winter 2016/17 hopes thread, in response to the fact that Gavin on his video blog had recently made musings on the fact that since the mid 19th century we haven't had a below average Winter succeeding a above average September. It's all quite fascinating though to learn about these quirky statistics, but they certainly shouldn't be taken as any sort of rule though in my opinion. 

[cheeky_monkey]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Reply to above, Jan 2010 was preety cold I think 1.4 degrees, it produced an average second half in the main after a very cold first half, though it turned colder again towards the end, locally I suspect some parts recorded a colder Jan than 1987 - Scotland in particular.

I was living in Canada in January 2010..so I'm my mind it doesn't exist if I'm not there

[Timmytour]

Food for thought....... what would be really nice would be to have a sub 2C winter such as we had managed six times last century, the last time being 1978-79.  Worth noting that as mild as recent winters seem to have been, the average CET for the 8 winters that preceded 1978/79 was getting on for half a degree warmer for the 8 winters that have preceded what is about to come.....

[johnholmes]

Be careful what you wish for!

As a 7 year old in 1947 I thought it was wonderful, pre central heating with only the kitchen warm, the rest of the house frigid, the outside toilet frozen up several times, school never closed in spite of deep snow for several weeks, well over the top of 4 foot railings-wonderful.

As an adult and working through 1962-63 the first 2 weeks or so were great, and I was living in  central heated accomodation (see below for my data from that winter at RCAF Langar (Canadian Air Force SSE of Nottingham). But I soon got fed up of travelling off the base, buses not running at times, my parents house even more than 1947 like living in a freezer. I sopped going home for 3-4 weekends even though it meant doing my own washing!

Those on this forum for several years will no doubt say, gawd here he goes again, but our system of living would probaly creak badly after 2-3 weeks with parts perhaps breaking down. Our infrastructure, hugely dependent on being able to transport all manner of stuff required for our present way of life would simply not be possible in my view. The power industry would be unable to cope with the enormous demand from every walk of life for energy, fuel supplies would not get delivered with the frequency needed. I could go on.

A couple of weeks fine but no longer than that thank you.

Data for RCAF Langar for the 1962-1963 winters, with a comparison with 1947

(Temperatures are all in deg C)

Langar is about 10 miles ese of Nottingham in a slight ‘bowl’ with minor hills all around it. The diary as such starts on December 26th 1962 and finishes at the end of February 1963.

General notes

The ground was snow covered continuously (Met Office definition for =/>half cover) for 44 days from 26.12.62 until 8.2.63

(At my parent’s house near Chesterfield, Derbyshire that was extended until 27th February,

A total of  63 days).

The ground at Langar was continuously frozen from 22nd December 1962 until 4th March 1963, a total of 63 days.

There was an air frost on every night, apart from 4, between 22nd December 1962 and 4th March 1963. (The only nights without frost were; 5.6.28 and 29th January)

There were 32 consecutive nights with frost from 1st February 1963 to 4th March 1963.

And there was a continuous frost(air temperature constantly below 0C) from 1500Z on 18th January 1963 until 0900Z on 26th January 1963(186 hours); put another way, almost a WHOLE week!!

There was 3.73 inches of rain (and melted snow) from 1 October 1962 to 28 February 1963

 This = 38% of the average.

Monthly figures for the start of the cold spell on 22nd December 1962

Date     min       max      mean

22         -4.4       2.2        -1.1

23         -6.1       0.6        -2.8

24         -9.3       0.0        -4.7

25         -11.8     -3.9       -7.9

26         -11.1     2.2        -4.5

27         -1.4       1.1        -0.2

28         -7.7       -2.2       -5.0

29         -5.1       -1.7       -3.4

30         -1.7       0.0        -0.9

31         -0.6       0.6        0.0       

Mean temp for 10 days = -3.0C

Values for January 1963

Date     min       max      mean

1          -0.1       0.7        0.3

2          -1.3       -0.6       -1.0

3          -0.7       0.5        -0.1

4          -0.1       1.0        0.5

5          0.6        1.1        0.9

6          1.1        1.8        1.5

7          -3.5       1.3        -1.1

8          -5.7       0.7        -2.5

9          -8.0       1.3        -3.4

10         -6.6       1.5        -2.6

11         -10.4     -5.0       -7.7

12         -5.4       -3.3       -4.4

13         -8.3       0.0        -4.2

14         -1.4       2.8        0.7

15         -7.7       2.3        -2.7

16         -2.7       0.0        -1.4

17         -9.2       -2.1       -5.7

18         -13.8     0.9        -6.5

19         -5.9       -0.3       -3.1

20         -3.3       -0.8       -2.1

21         -4.1       -1.4       -2.8

22         -13.6     -3.4       -8.5

23         -15.4     -3.3       -9.4

24         -12.2     -5.6       -8.9

25         -8.6       -0.6       -4.6

26         -6.2       5.3        -0.5

27         -3.9       2.3        -0.8

28         0.5        2.4        1.5

29         1.4        2.9        2.2

30         0.1        1.3        0.7

31         -1.7       2.5        0.4

Mean temp for month = -2.4C

Values for February

Date     min       max      mean

1          -3.5       -0.7       -2.1

2          -9.8       -3.5       -6.7

3          -6.7       -4.1       -5.4

4          -10.2     1.6        -4.3

5          -8.4       0.2        -4.1

6          -3.7       -0.7       -2.2

7          -1.6       1.6        0.0

8          0.0        2.9        1.5

9          -1.7       2.9        0.6

10         -1.4       1.7        0.2

11         -1.8       0.6        -0.6

12         -0.1       2.1        1.0

13         -0.7       4.1        1.0

14         -2.6       1.7        -0.5

15         -0.1       1.2        0.6

16         -1.9       0.4        -0.8

17         -1.7       1.7        0.0

18         -1.7       2.2        0.3

19         -1.5       0.3        0.6

20         -4.8       2.6        -1.1

21         -3.9       4.1        0.1

22         -2.1       2.8        0.4

23         -2.8       1.9        -0.5

24         -6.7       0.6        -3.1

25         -9.8       2.2        -3.8

26         -5.2       4.8        -0.2

27         -4.6       2.8        -0.9

28         -3.3       5.4        1.1

Mean temp for month = -1.1C

Mean temp for January and February = -1.7C

The average minimum for the whole 69 days=-4.9C

Comparison of temperatures at Langar between 1947 and 1963

1947     January             avge min=-1.0   avge max=3.5    mean=1.3

1963     January             avge min=-5.0   avge max=0.2    mean=-2.4

1947     February           avge min=-4.2    avge max=1.5   mean=-2.3

1963     February           avge min=-3.7    avge max=1.8   mean=-0.9

So for the two months being compared 1947 showed a mean temp of -0.5 and 1963 gave -1.7C

I cannot get data for frosts and snow for 1947 but for 1963 these were;

days with snow falling= 20 in Jan and 19 in Feb; lying snow=31 in Jan and 19 in Feb.

Air frosts in January were 26 and 27 in February.

To add some comments on the above data. I lived in a centrally heated block with just a short walk to the dining and recreation area. Life was lived in short sleeves mostly with the bedroom window open a notch as the heating was so hot. Underground pipes went from the boiler house to all the buildings and snow/ice free areas showed their path. Once off the station then life showed up very differently, buses ran but occasionally stopped due to the intense cold, roads were usually passable in the Langar area. However, on my journeys home this was not the case. Although snowfall was not as high in terms of depth as 1947, some roads were impassable at times during blizzards when the winds picked up. Snow that fell in late December was still being blown around in February along with new falls. Data from Finningley shows it snowed on 40 out of 66 possible days from 26 December to 29 February. Thus the Chesterfield area may well have had a slightly higher figure. I do remember feeling very cold in bed at my parents with just one main fire in the house. Frost persisted throughout the day on windows away from the kitchen. When the snow started to thaw I did manage to drive my father’s car on to the nearest high ground, about 1,000ft up and some 6-7 miles from our house. The main road was a ‘tunnel’ with snow piled over 12-15 feet on each side of the road.

This was March sometime, perhaps the second week but I am unsure of the date.

Edited October 11, 2016 by johnholmes

[4wd]

Spot on John, those wishing for blizzards have mostly never experienced the hardship such as no power for days and food running low with roads blocked.
For short periods we are reminded of this most winters here and problems caused by snow and ice can be expensive and highly inconvenient.

[joggs]

Well I'd love to live through a winter like that.Sorry if it's deemed selfish.

[4wd]

2 hours ago, joggs said:

Well I'd love to live through a winter like that.Sorry if it's deemed selfish.

Its not selfish, but if your power is off so your heating won't work for days - and your pipes freeze as a result flooding the place -  and the roads are impassable so if you struggle to a shop on foot all they have left is two cans of pilchards you wouldn't 'love it' for long.
In the 50s, 60s  70s life was simpler, they mostly had open fires and coal + logs in stock - and a big bag of spuds plus porridge in the larder.
Now the whole system including how people shop for convenience food almost daily works on Just-in-Time concept.
It could get bad very quick in some areas.

 

[Snowyowl9]

Yes exactly be careful what you wish for.

As to the question will it happen,never say never but highly unlikely,I`ve not seen a winter like 62-63 of 1947 because I wasn`t here.

A winter like 1987 January is that possible record cold upper air colder than 62-63 and 47.

From the east it is.

[March Blizzard]

I don't get how another 47/63 style winter would spell doom for UK infrastructure when it's probably only on a par with, say, an average Polish winter, for example. 

Granted, we don't get winters like they do and so aren't as well prepared for the disruption it would cause, but after the initial disruptive few weeks, things would just go back to near-normal and we'd just get on with it through the rest of the winter. 

Its not as if 63 was on a par with the Canadian Arctic, with temperatures not rising above -40C for 5 months, is it?

That would be a game changer for the UK...

[Anti-Mild]

I think we have become "sofetened" by a long spell without a severe winter, and I agree with JH that a repeat of the big 2 would cripple our infrastructure.

Back in January 1993, I think around the 13th, my area (central Perthshire at the time) was hit by a blizzard that was accompanied by storm force winds. it snowed from around 7pm on the Sunday until about midnight on the Monday. At the time I lived way out in the sticks. we (mum, dad, me, brother and sister) lost power at about 10am on the Monday, The heating pipes froze in the afternoon, we couldn't get out of the house as the drifts were too extensive. Luckily we had a coal fire so at least the living room was warm. We heated water for hot water bottles over the fire and cooked soup in the same manner. It was too cold to venture out and we were all in bed by 5pm.

On the Wednesday the farmer cleared the snow from our drive and we were able to get into my grandparents in Perth to shower and get a decent meal and by Thursday the temperature rocketed and everything thawed and that resulted in lots of flooding in Perth and the surrounding areas.

The point I'm trying to make is it all sounds like a hoot to be snowed in, but it very quickly loses it's fascination.

[phil nw.]

Just flicking through the 47 archives and what struck me was how cold the 850's were at times.

-16C on the east coast is rare and also the extent and depth of cold across  the north and east was quite notable with -20/24c uppers extensively,which of course was being brough to the UK by those persistent easterlies.

A look at another Feb 47 chart clearly shows a split vortex which pushed all that cold south over Europe and the UK.

A very cold and snowy period which lasted until late March for parts of the north.

[March Blizzard]

How low did the uppers get in March 2013? I'm sure they weren't far from -20C at times? 

[Matthew.]

I can understand ones wanting snow and cold in winter and that as I would love to see a -3c to 0c day to night variation with a foot of snow on the ground giving Alpine conditions with sunny days and frosty nights but agree with others that much outside these boundaries it would turn life into a misery as it did at times for ones who lived through 47/63.

Edited October 11, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[cheese]

2 hours ago, 4wd said:

Its not selfish, but if your power is off so your heating won't work for days - and your pipes freeze as a result flooding the place -  and the roads are impassable so if you struggle to a shop on foot all they have left is two cans of pilchards you wouldn't 'love it' for long.
In the 50s, 60s  70s life was simpler, they mostly had open fires and coal + logs in stock - and a big bag of spuds plus porridge in the larder.
Now the whole system including how people shop for convenience food almost daily works on Just-in-Time concept.
It could get bad very quick in some areas.

 

Do you and Mr Grouch (aka John Holmes) really think people haven't considered this or that it hadn't entered their minds at all? Most of us are adults who work for a living - not children living at home without a care in the world. 

Seriously, enough with this preachy 'careful what you wish for' rubbish. It doesn't matter a jot what people wish for - if it's going to happen, it's going to happen. You will just have to deal with it. And March is right - if our infrastructure can't cope with something that's routine in poorer countries like Poland then our infrastructure is clearly not up to scratch. A first-world country should not have to contemplate gas shortages or power outages due to cold weather - it's ridiculous. 

Edited October 11, 2016 by cheese

[4wd]

5 hours ago, joggs said:

^ Ignore the un-deletable quote box.^

It's not like Poland here, we can have far worse protracted blizzards here and typically the temperature hovers around freezing which pulls down trees and cables.
Winter in Eastern Europe is at least 5C colder and most snow is dry and powdery - rarely do they get several feet on the ground.
We also get far more wind - drifting snow into narrow roads lined with tall hedges or parked cars, and nowhere to push large volumes of snow.
They have fleets of snowploughs and snow blowers ready to go at moments notice - most of southern Britain does not.
The very fact i need point out what serious snowstorms can do illustrates the problem - that many in this country have little comprehension of the disruption serious winter weather can do.

This is not some distant historical fantasy but could easily affect more heavily populated areas and it would be chaos for several days and if it persisted for weeks with further blizzards people will die.

I agree it doesn't make any difference if you wish it would happen or not!
However downplaying the risk is not sensible.
Here we normally keep *at least* a month of food and fuel  on hand through winterbecause many times since 1963 there have been periods of two weeks or more when it is difficult, dangerous or impossible to travel far.
 

 

[Frost HoIIow]

2 hours ago, March Blizzard said:

How low did the uppers get in March 2013? I'm sure they weren't far from -20C at times? 

About -14C was the lowest I could find - still impressive for March with that very cold feed coming from the Baltics & Russia. I don't think you could have such different March's back to back with March 2012 being unusually warm. Crazy.

 

Edited October 11, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[joggs]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

Do you and Mr Grouch (aka John Holmes) really think people haven't considered this or that it hadn't entered their minds at all? Most of us are adults who work for a living - not children living at home without a care in the world. 

Seriously, enough with this preachy 'careful what you wish for' rubbish. It doesn't matter a jot what people wish for - if it's going to happen, it's going to happen. You will just have to deal with it. And March is right - if our infrastructure can't cope with something that's routine in poorer countries like Poland then our infrastructure is clearly not up to scratch. A first-world country should not have to contemplate gas shortages or power outages due to cold weather - it's ridiculous. 

Gotta say,totally agree.

[Timmytour]

Take the  September CET and subtract the sum of the CETs for March and April.

If you did this since 1961 up until last year and put them into bands of less than -3C, between -3C and -2C, between -1C and -2C ...and so on until between 2C and 3C and greater and 3C,  you would find a fairly standard distribution around the mean of -0.6C, save for one anomaly.

Since 1961, there has only been one instance of the difference falling between 2C and 3C. Seems a remarkable run considering the previous 54 years there were no less than 8 occasions where the difference fell into this band.

The relevance?   This year is only the second time since 1961 that the CET of September less the CETS of both March and April, 2.7C, falls within the 2C to 3C bracket.

The other year?   1962

It's a sure-fire thing isn't it?? 

 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

On ‎11‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 17:51, March Blizzard said:

I don't get how another 47/63 style winter would spell doom for UK infrastructure when it's probably only on a par with, say, an average Polish winter, for example. 

Granted, we don't get winters like they do and so aren't as well prepared for the disruption it would cause, but after the initial disruptive few weeks, things would just go back to near-normal and we'd just get on with it through the rest of the winter. 

Its not as if 63 was on a par with the Canadian Arctic, with temperatures not rising above -40C for 5 months, is it?

That would be a game changer for the UK...

yes I don't get all the doom mongering either..it comparison to Canadian winters, winters like 62-3 are pretty tame. For example the winter of 2010-11 in Edmonton where I was living the temperature only got above 0c on four occasions between the 13th November 2010 - 29th March 2011..cold and snow just becomes the norm and you just go on with everyday life as usual its no big deal really.

[MR EXTREMES]

i doubt many of us would think that 2009/10 would of been possible but certain passed my expectations so look at this from this angle id say most certainly  could happen again anything is possible.

Edited October 18, 2016 by MR EXTREMES