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Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?


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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
5 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

Well IF this winter turned out like '47 or '63, I'm sure the servers.... never mind the forums would go into meltdown!! :D

In theory, they shouldn't, because those that enjoy that weather, should be outside enjoying it. However, in reality, you'll have two groups of people posting in the mod thread; One group looking for the breakdown, and one group taking no notice of what's occurring at the time, and looking in to FI for the next cold spell. sarcastic_hand.gif

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I am afraid that it is currently impossible for Britain to have a severe winter because there is so little ice nowadays in the European side of the Arctic.  The Arctic ice pack looks like a giant biscuit which is still fully intact from eastern Siberia  to the Canadian Arctic, but has a great chunk bitten out from NE Greenland, going north of Spitzbergen, and does not reach the Russian coast until well east of Novaya Zemlya.  America still has regular severe winters because the American side of the Arctic Ocean is still covered with ice.  The only hope of a severe winter is if a major volcanic eruption occurs.  The 2009/10 and 2010/11 cold winters occurred in the aftermath of the Icelandic volcanic eruption of 2009, which cancelled all the flights, and the 1991/98 cold winter occurred after the Mt Pinatubo eruption of 1991.  The lack of Arctic ice in the European side of the Arctic trumps all other El Nino and other oscillations or cycles, so that the only question is whether we have a mild wet winter or a mild dry winter.  The only way for England to have a cold spell is if we are under a static anticyclone making home grown cold coming up from the SE from France or Germany.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
8 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the first 2 weeks of February 2012 was abnormally cold in the south-east/east and then went very mild...so that month panned out near average.

Most of the 1970's weren't as mild as some of the winters we have just experienced...certainly milder winter months now than experienced even in the late 80's and late 90's.

Feb 09, Jan 13 and Feb 12 are good examples of months which look normal in CET value but hide halves of the month which were more or less sub-zero in CET. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

In theory, they shouldn't, because those that enjoy that weather, should be outside enjoying it. However, in reality, you'll have two groups of people posting in the mod thread; One group looking for the breakdown, and one group taking no notice of what's occurring at the time, and looking in to FI for the next cold spell. sarcastic_hand.gif

Ha, that's true. The third group being people too glued to the radar to go outside and enjoy the snow too. 

I myself am an avid lampost watcher and guilty of tracking every stray snow shower. I'm also especially when snow is not likely the type that can tell you what the weather will do in a week, but not what it will do tomorrow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
8 hours ago, OglanderJ said:

I am afraid that it is currently impossible for Britain to have a severe winter because there is so little ice nowadays in the European side of the Arctic.  The Arctic ice pack looks like a giant biscuit which is still fully intact from eastern Siberia  to the Canadian Arctic, but has a great chunk bitten out from NE Greenland, going north of Spitzbergen, and does not reach the Russian coast until well east of Novaya Zemlya.  America still has regular severe winters because the American side of the Arctic Ocean is still covered with ice.  The only hope of a severe winter is if a major volcanic eruption occurs.  The 2009/10 and 2010/11 cold winters occurred in the aftermath of the Icelandic volcanic eruption of 2009, which cancelled all the flights, and the 1991/98 cold winter occurred after the Mt Pinatubo eruption of 1991.  The lack of Arctic ice in the European side of the Arctic trumps all other El Nino and other oscillations or cycles, so that the only question is whether we have a mild wet winter or a mild dry winter.  The only way for England to have a cold spell is if we are under a static anticyclone making home grown cold coming up from the SE from France or Germany.

Given that Eyjafjallajökull erupted in April 2010, it was an impressive feat to cause the cold winter of 09/10.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
7 hours ago, OglanderJ said:

I am afraid that it is currently impossible for Britain to have a severe winter because there is so little ice nowadays in the European side of the Arctic.  The Arctic ice pack looks like a giant biscuit which is still fully intact from eastern Siberia  to the Canadian Arctic, but has a great chunk bitten out from NE Greenland, going north of Spitzbergen, and does not reach the Russian coast until well east of Novaya Zemlya.  America still has regular severe winters because the American side of the Arctic Ocean is still covered with ice.  The only hope of a severe winter is if a major volcanic eruption occurs.  The 2009/10 and 2010/11 cold winters occurred in the aftermath of the Icelandic volcanic eruption of 2009, which cancelled all the flights, and the 1991/98 cold winter occurred after the Mt Pinatubo eruption of 1991.  The lack of Arctic ice in the European side of the Arctic trumps all other El Nino and other oscillations or cycles, so that the only question is whether we have a mild wet winter or a mild dry winter.  The only way for England to have a cold spell is if we are under a static anticyclone making home grown cold coming up from the SE from France or Germany.

Mt. Pinatubo erupted in June 1991, well after the February 1991 event. Eyjafjallajökull erupted in April 2010, after the severe winter of 2009/10. March 2013 was the coldest in central England since 1883, and as I pointed out in another thread, the second half of the month was third coldest since daily records began in 1772. As far as I know, the cold weather in March 2013 has not been attributed to/ linked to any volcanic events.

It's also worth remembering that northerlies aren't the only source of cold in this country; early February 2012 and March 2013 brought bitterly cold air to our shores, originating from Siberia. And we have seen a lot of extremely cold air building up over Siberia (often encroaching into Europe) in recent years. To say that it's impossible for Britain to experience severe winters nowadays is somewhat absurd.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Given that Eyjafjallajökull erupted in April 2010, it was an impressive feat to cause the cold winter of 09/10.

 

Do you think there is a link to low sun spots and volcanic eruptions? as i think there maybe is a link.

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

If we look at CET winters sub 2 deg  we can find ...

1659~1700      9 winters

1700~1800      9 winters

1800~1900      11 winters [last one 1895]

1917,1929,1940,1947,1963 and 1979.

It has been relatively consistant for much of the CET history  although there were more in the 1600s .It has been the longest period since that of 1979 at 38 years but interestingly there was a 32 year gap between 1895 and 1917.Maybe we may get that sub 2 deg winter if we have had a long spell before ??

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
7 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Mt. Pinatubo erupted in June 1991, well after the February 1991 event. Eyjafjallajökull erupted in April 2010, after the severe winter of 2009/10. March 2013 was the coldest in central England since 1883, and as I pointed out in another thread, the second half of the month was third coldest since daily records began in 1772. As far as I know, the cold weather in March 2013 has not been attributed to/ linked to any volcanic events.

It's also worth remembering that northerlies aren't the only source of cold in this country; early February 2012 and March 2013 brought bitterly cold air to our shores, originating from Siberia. And we have seen a lot of extremely cold air building up over Siberia (often encroaching into Europe) in recent years. To say that it's impossible for Britain to experience severe winters nowadays is somewhat absurd.

Cold UK winters are causing volcanoes! :shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Do you think there is a link to low sun spots and volcanic eruptions? as i think there maybe is a link.

Nah. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
34 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

If we look at CET winters sub 2 deg  we can find ...

1659~1700      9 winters

1700~1800      9 winters

1800~1900      11 winters [last one 1895]

1917,1929,1940,1947,1963 and 1979.

It has been relatively consistant for much of the CET history  although there were more in the 1600s .It has been the longest period since that of 1979 at 38 years but interestingly there was a 32 year gap between 1895 and 1917.Maybe we may get that sub 2 deg winter if we have had a long spell before ??

Didn't 2009/2010 come close to a sub 2 degree winter. In Scotland it was the coldest I think since 62/63 possibly 1939/40.. though need to check the stats. I suspect N England came in sub 2 degree as well - but yes it is the CET values we have to use. 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I don't believe that it's impossible for Britain to have a severe winter, but it's becoming less and less likely with time as the global temperature continues to rise and the Arctic Amplification continues to accelerate.  It would still be possible IMHO if at least two out of the three main winter months had similar synoptic setups to December 2010 and/or March 2013.  Given that March 2013's cold came mainly from the east, at a time of year when the land masses warm up significantly, I would expect larger negative temperature anomalies were those synoptics to be repeated in one of the three main winter months.

This year the cooling north of 80N (see link below) and the freeze-up of the Barents/Kara region are progressing at a similar rate to 2009, and we managed a pretty severe spell from 17 December 2009 to 9 January 2010, which picked up air mass sources from both north and east.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

I think it's extremely unlikely that we'll get anything remotely approaching 1963 or 1947 but I don't think we're yet at the stage where it's impossible.  Perhaps the insane warmth of the Arctic in late 2016 would have ruled out the possibility for the 2016/17 winter, but at present, though still anomalously warm up there, it's nowhere near as extreme as last year.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Didn't 2009/2010 come close to a sub 2 degree winter. In Scotland it was the coldest I think since 62/63 possibly 1939/40.. though need to check the stats. I suspect N England came in sub 2 degree as well - but yes it is the CET values we have to use. 

 

 

 

 I think a 90 day period from early December 2009-early March 2010 came out around 2.0C. 90 day period is the length of a meteorological winter apart from leap years.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
8 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 I think a 90 day period from early December 2009-early March 2010 came out around 2.0C. 90 day period is the length of a meteorological winter apart from leap years.

This is true. Each of the 90-day periods starting 11th/12th/13th of December 2009 were, to two decimal places, 1.99C. Arguably more impressive is that the 90-day period beginning on the 7th November 2010 averaged 2.23C.

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
18 hours ago, hillbilly said:

If we look at CET winters sub 2 deg  we can find ...

1659~1700      9 winters

1700~1800      9 winters

1800~1900      11 winters [last one 1895]

1917,1929,1940,1947,1963 and 1979.

It has been relatively consistant for much of the CET history  although there were more in the 1600s .It has been the longest period since that of 1979 at 38 years but interestingly there was a 32 year gap between 1895 and 1917.Maybe we may get that sub 2 deg winter if we have had a long spell before ??

Oops there is not a 32 year gap from 1895 ,it is actually 22 years!!

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
22 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Given that Eyjafjallajökull erupted in April 2010, it was an impressive feat to cause the cold winter of 09/10.

 

There was the Sarychev eruption the previous year. That pumped up some aerosols into the stratosphere as was seen by the spectacular sunsets.

Something happened in the upper atmosphere during 2009. Volcanic aerosols and also spectacular noctilucent displays that summer were prevalent.

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Four days in the evolution of winter 1947

Jan 17th to Jan 20th

Rslp19470117.gif Rslp19470118.gifRslp19470119.gif Rslp19470120.gif

And on to the 21st jan

Rslp19470121.gif

 

How quickly things can change.....

 

 

 

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