Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I find that very hard to believe.

Without wanting to appear confrontational, which is far from the case,might I ask how many more very mild winters will be required for this viewpoint to become more widely accepted?

[cheeky_monkey]

22 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

It's a bit like buying a lottery ticket and going around asking everybody whether they think you'll win the jackpot. Well there's a miniscule chance I suppose, but it's only realistic to expect not to. Besides from anything else, if such were to occur, I doubt any previous forecast would be so bold.

But as for the specific years in question, it should be remembered that they were pretty unique from one another, with the most intense cold in 46/47 arriving much later than 62/63 and the later was colder but the former was more snowy on average. So it begs the question what is the actual threshold that puts these 2 Winters particularly in their own league? And why isn't say 78/79 considered to be in quite the same league? I guess perhaps that Winter is considered as been more like 09/10, which as good as it was, was no 46/47 or 62/63. Not that I was around for either, but they were clearly something else. Also how far back before 1946/47 would you find another Winter that could be considered equal?

IMO 78/79 was nothing like 09/10

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Again, im inclined to agree.

My only hope is this is cyclical, the trouble is with all the damage done with Arctic ice melt etc, we will be long gone before any reversals take effect.if they happen even.

That's also my concern - I'm not a professional, but I am scientifically-trained and I have an hypothesis (which I sadly cannot test) that winters in the UK have changed radically since the early part of this decade in the following ways:

• Reduction in sea ice extent leads, as has been explained in this thread, to an increased open sea path of northerly winds, thereby modifying the airmass to a greater extent than was the case.  
• Azores high seems to be more inclined to head south-west in winter, thereby allowing a central-west Atlantic trough and associated European ridge to establish our east and south-east during winter rather than to our west, hence the increasing prevalence of a Bartlett-type set-up
• Synoptic NH set-ups seem to stay blocked for longer periods; when combined with the Bartlett High becoming more frequent, this tends towards mean flow directions that are increasingly south of west.
• PFJ in winter seems generally stronger in winter than previously, perhaps due to an increasing tendency towards cold weather in the eastern US and therefore a steeper temperature gradient increasing the jet's strength.

 

Whether anyone can test this and falsify it, I have no idea, but I cannot see any reason not to propose the hypothesis for consideration.

Edited October 13, 2017 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting typo.

[Daniel*]

18 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If I ever see snow on the ground that lasts for more tan 5-6 hours here I will be very surprised.  I suspect winters in lowland Britain are now either wet and windy or drier, mild and cloudy, as we've seen for the past few years.  I am utterly convinced that 2010-11 and 2012-13 were the final examples of a winter than AGW has now rendered all but impossible.

Just no. No doubt the world has warmed the Arctic especially but nowhere near to that extent. Last winter parts of Europe had the most severe spell of cold for going on thirty years 1987.   

[northwestsnow]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

That's also my concern - I'm not a professional, but I am scientifically-trained and I have an hypothesis (which I sadly cannot test) that winters in the UK have changed radically since the early part of this decade in the following ways:

• Reduction in sea ice extent leads, as has been explained in this thread, so an increased open sea path of northerly winds, thereby modifying the airmass to a greater extent than was the case.  
• Azores high seems to be more inclined to head south-west in winter, thereby allowing a central-west Atlantic trough and associated European ridge to establish our east and south-east during winter rather than to our west, hence the increasing prevalence of a Bartlett-type set-up
• Synoptic NH set-ups seem to stay blocked for longer periods; when combined with the Bartlett High becoming more frequent, this tends towards mean flow directions that are increasingly south of west.
• PFJ in winter seems generally stronger in winter than previously, perhaps due to an increasing tendency towards cold weather in the eastern US and therefore a steeper temperature gradient increasing the jet's strength.

Another excellent post i agree with !

I mentioned the jet stream, its becoming stronger and stronger, i'm concerned flooding may become an unwanted headline at an increasing rate.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Just no. No doubt the world has warmed the Arctic especially but nowhere near to that extent. Last winter parts of Europe had the most severe spell of cold for going on thirty years 1987.   

South-eastern Europe is very different to the UK in that northerlies have a route over cold continental landmass rather than a lengthy sea route as they do for us.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Without wanting to appear confrontational, which is far from the case,might I ask how many more very mild winters will be required for this viewpoint to become more widely accepted?

We've only had 4 in succession since the last cold one, and March was a part of Winter that year (producing well below normal average temps, making it an intensely cold Winter period, really quite recently at that). This isn't really anything. We'd probably have to have something like 30 to 40 years of only mild Winters to start believing that, which I can't imagine happening. But whatever it might be 4 or 5 years isn't enough. There has been an increase in mild Winters in the last 30 years but very cold ones have come. Those most recent examples also gave us some of the coldest averages at particular times of year in decades and well over a century even. If we don't get another cold Winter by at least the middle of next decade maybe my concerns will increase. But I think we'll possibly get another before the end of this one.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

South-eastern Europe is very different to the UK in that northerlies have a route over cold continental landmass rather than a lengthy sea route as they do for us.

SE Europe and eastern europe might actually be the parts of Europe that get colder in the +NAO scenario- 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

SE Europe and eastern europe might actually be the parts of Europe that get colder in the +NAO scenario- 

This makes sense given that the usual position of the Euro high this past few years has tended to placed SE Europe on the cold side of the jet when the NH set-up has been blocked.  I suspect it isn't merely correlation that makes those winters when our side of the NH has had a more zonal jet with frequent lows moving rapidly off the Atlantic rather less remarkable for SE European cold.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

This makes sense given that the usual position of the Euro high this past few years has tended to placed SE Europe on the cold side of the jet when the NH set-up has been blocked.  I suspect it isn't merely correlation that makes those winters when our side of the NH has had a more zonal jet with frequent lows moving rapidly off the Atlantic rather less remarkable for SE European cold.

Greece and Turkey have been having some very cold winters- its all connected, the jet forces any blocking high east, we get drenched, west/central europe gets a boring high, and SE europe gets all the cold flooding SE NW russia on the eastern flank of the block.

Rinse and repeat.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

12 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

We've only had 4 in succession since the last cold one, and March was a part of Winter that year (producing well below normal average temps, making it an intensely cold Winter period, really quite recently at that). This isn't really anything. We'd probably have to have something like 30 to 40 years of only mild Winters to start believing that, which I can't imagine happening. But whatever it might be 4 or 5 years isn't enough. There has been an increase in mild Winters in the last 30 years but very cold ones have come. Those most recent examples also gave us some of the coldest averages at particular times of year in decades and well over a century even. If we don't get another cold Winter by at least the middle of next decade maybe my concerns will increase. But I think we'll possibly get another before the end of this one.

As previously, I apologise for sounding hostile, but I really wonder whether we've ever (since the science of meteorology got going) had 30-40 straight years of almost snowless winters in lowland Britain as some sort of precedent for your argument?

Edited October 13, 2017 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Methuselah]

As to whether our winter weather has changed in the way Chris is suggesting, I'm in two minds...Yes, the past four have been dire, snow-wise; but, all it needed for last winter's severe cold to reach our shores, was a change in wind direction...?

That said, it's hard to deny the argument made for longer, warmer sea tracks...

[Walsall Wood Snow]

6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

As previously, I apologise for sounding hostile, but I really wonder whether we've ever (since the science of meteorology got going) had 30-40 straight years of almost snowless winters in lowland Britain?

I don't believe the period 1900 to 1940 was particularly snowy in lowland Britain. It wouldn't have been as snowy as 1940 to 1990 though.

Edited October 13, 2017 by Walsall Wood Snow

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I don't believe the period 1900 to 1940 was particularly snowy in lowland Britain. It wouldn't have been as snowy as 1940 to 1990 though.

Perhaps Weather-history could provide data on the winters of that period compared with those since 2013 to enable us to ascertain whether they are comparable?  I was aware that the early 20th century was milder on the whole, though the Western Front, which was close to the UK meteorologically-speaking, was exceptionally cold during the winter of 1916-17 IIRC.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

12 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Perhaps Weather-history could provide data on the winters of that period compared with those since 2013 to enable us to ascertain whether they are comparable?  I was aware that the early 20th century was milder on the whole, though the Western Front, which was close to the UK meteorologically-speaking, was exceptionally cold during the winter of 1916-17 IIRC.

Indeed it was, but it was an intensely cold Winter in a sea of mildness. In fact clusterings of cold Winters seem to come to a halt when the 19th turned over to the 20th century. They then started becoming far more regular again from the 1940s to 1970s, stopped again for about half a decade and then resumed until the mid to late 1980s. After which it's been mostly mild Winters again, but even the Winters of the early to mid 1990s had their moments, and that 5 year period from 2008-13 was a bit like the 80s strikes back. I think after nearly 5 years though it can't be too much longer until we get something decent, whether it be in isolation or the start of a new trend however long or short.

Edited October 13, 2017 by Walsall Wood Snow

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Indeed it was, but it was an intensely cold Winter in a sea of mildness. In fact clusterings of cold Winters seem to come to a halt when the 19th turned over to the 20th century. They then started becoming far more regular again from the 1940s to 1970s, stopped again for about half a decade and then resumed until the mid to late 1980s. After which it's been mostly mild Winters again, but even the Winters of the mid to late 90s had their moments, and that 5 year period from 2008-13 was a bit like the 80s strikes back. I think after nearly 5 years though it can't be too much longer until we get something decent, whether it be in isolation or the start of a new trend however long or short.

I'd genuinely like to think you're right, though, with the NHS in crisis, I fear for what might happen should we get a cold winter over the next few years.  Going back to the question of the winter of 1916-17, though, does that suggest that the 30-40 year threshold only really applies if we consider a spell with multiple cold winters as opposed to a single, isolated case?

[damianslaw]

Oh dear this thread is becoming a pessimists dream.. for cold winter weather. I am reminded of the 2006-2008 period when it was all doom and gloom no chance of cold weather again, alas we entered a cold phase.. The synoptics of late Feb 2005 should have expelled such thought.. but it never.

One thing that has been a theme of recent winters has been an amplified often buckled jet that has become stuck, in some years we've been on the cold side, on others the mild side.. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'd genuinely like to think you're right, though, with the NHS in crisis, I fear for what might happen should we get a cold winter over the next few years.  Going back to the question of the winter of 1916-17, though, does that suggest that the 30-40 year threshold only really applies if we consider a spell with multiple cold winters as opposed to a single, isolated case?

I don't know but if anything maybe it shows that we can't take anything for granted? One thing to consider though is the fact that the instrumental record begins in 1659, in the LIA. Even during that though I believe the harsher stages of it were in the late 17th century, then I think it eased a bit in the early 18th, reintensified in the 1740s and eased off by the middle of the 19th century effectively ending it. I do believe people in the mid 19th century noticed too, with milder Winters becoming more regular. But they seem to come back towards the end of the century, dying off again come the turn of the century. But this was probably a more normal cooling phase a bit like the one from the 1940s to 70s. So there seems to be cycles to these things.

[DAVID SNOW]

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Oh dear this thread is becoming a pessimists dream.. for cold winter weather. I am reminded of the 2006-2008 period when it was all doom and gloom no chance of cold weather again, alas we entered a cold phase.. The synoptics of late Feb 2005 should have expelled such thought.. but it never.

One thing that has been a theme of recent winters has been an amplified often buckled jet that has become stuck, in some years we've been on the cold side, on others the mild side.. 

Agreed, and here we are again..

It was only SEVEN years ago that we experienced the second ever coldest December, records dating back to 1659.

As I said on here years ago, follow the sun. (not the newspaper)

[phil nw.]

From my pov not pessimism more acceptance of warming and a lifetime of observation and bearing in mind the discussion in here is around the chances of a re-run of a 47/63 type of Winter not whether we will get further cold spells.

For the reasons i and others have already set out i just think chances of that sort of Winter in current climatic trends is becoming more unlikely as each year goes by.

Just compare  the Winter data here in map form for temperature and snow/sleet days trends from first the 1961-1990 period and then the 1981-2010 period.

  

link  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gcqdt4b2x

I believe also it is commonly accepted that the ice cap is shrinking and becoming thinner even at the period of maximum growth in early Spring so as already said a warmer and more open Arctic ocean is now seen compared to several decades ago.

No-one is contending that we wont get further cold and snow spells in the UK but the trends are against anything like those 2 classic Winters re running anytime soon.

It is simply the fact that the source of our cold is weakening through Arctic warming and therefore we are relying more and more on an ideal pattern to draw any cold this way.

Edited October 13, 2017 by phil nw.

[Weather-history]

As I posted before, you read articles from a long ago and they were saying back then severe winters were not the norm. 

Here's an interesting letter I found by Donald W. Horner

"There has been a popular belief that the climate of western Europe has become generally milder during the last 30 to 50 years or so.

Take last winter in England. After a severe cold spell in December instead of (as in former days) continuing into January and Febraury, the cold disappeared suddenly, this being due to there being no mass of cold air over the Continent, even the snows of Switzerland melting from time to time. Evidence certainly goes towards showing a general amelioration in the winter climate of western Europe."

Date: 21st November 1928 
 

[Weather-history]

I point out we have a benchmark for cold for recent times, December 2010, the actual benchmark is -1.5C for a 31 day period, the coldest 31 day run up to Christmas since at least 1772.

Also we got March 2013 but the benchmark is actually early March to early April 2013 with a CET of 2.4C, which is remarkable. March 2013 actually got colder as the month went on, which in these climatic times of warmth domination, staggering. Remember the CET was 4.9C by the 9th and ended up at 2.7C.

 

 

[northwestsnow]

I'd be interested to know the CET for every month since 1987 actually, that would be a 30 year sample so to speak.I will bet my bottom dollar out of a possible  360 months about 330 have been above the long term mean,say for London.

 

And it will illustrate how difficult it is to get a cold winter i would imagine, all that said, im a believer in the cyclical nature of the weather.

So i'm not sure cold winters are over, but for now, the odds on a cold one would have to be quite long,imho of course.

Edited October 14, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Catacol]

All rather simplistic in here at the moment. The 62/63 winter was caused by a catastrophic destruction of the polar vortex, first by a Canadian Warming and then by a subsequent hit that ripped it to shreds. It is true that ice extent has fallen... but that is a poor analogue on its own for embedded cold in my opinion. The more interesting question for me is not global temperature charts (skewed by arctic warming) but actually stratospheric patterns and trends in the current era. Canadian warmings have become less frequent, allowing the vortex to power up and maintain a strong westerly regime. However this has not prevented wobbles and splits... and from 2009 - 2013 we saw considerable interest at times in polar vortex variation.

This will return. Last year was a lot closer to the rainbow pot than the previous 2... but the pacific fell silent and didnt provide the shot of momentum needed to upset a vortex that started the season in poor shape. I am quite certain that we still have a lot to learn on the impact of AGW on the vortex, and it is by no means certain that continued warming will serve to strengthen the vortex - it may actually possibly weaken it.

So for me vortex disruption events will happen again, more likely in phases of low solar influence, and then synoptics for snow and cold can certainly endure. Less ice means more absorption of energy which will inevitably feel like a guarantee of warmer weather... but more open water also means an increase in outgoing energy in the early part of winter especially... and the impacts of this are still a topic for serious researchers. There is a feeling in some quarters that more open water may actually lead to a more frequently perturbed vortex in early season, and this might suggest more Decembers with cold interest?

One thing is for sure - weather and climate doesnt work in straight lines - so for members to declare that "winter is over" is probably short sighted. Ian Brown was guilty of this in the past. Looking at solar cycles I think this winter is a bit early to get a proper cold shot that will make a mark in the history books. If you believe in the impact of solar cycles on the prevailing westerlies in this part of the world then 2019 to 2024 is our next window of higher probability for cold/snow. And dont forget that the current cycle looks very weak.. so in that 5 year period I would suggest 1 decent history-making winter is entirely possible.

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I point out we have a benchmark for cold for recent times, December 2010, the actual benchmark is -1.5C for a 31 day period, the coldest 31 day run up to Christmas since at least 1772.

Also we got March 2013 but the benchmark is actually early March to early April 2013 with a CET of 2.4C, which is remarkable. March 2013 actually got colder as the month went on, which in these climatic times of warmth domination, staggering. Remember the CET was 4.9C by the 9th and ended up at 2.7C.

 

 

In recent times we have had the cold 2009-10 winter, the severe cold December 2010, and the abnormally cold end to the winter 2012-13 winter, and on top of this winters 2008-09 and 2012-13 were reasonable for cold spells, but since 2012-13, as a whole the last four winters put together have been back to square one, mild or very mild with little in the way of cold outbreaks.