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Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, white crimbo said:

LOL...yes football will save the day :rofl: 

Especially when, following one of Aguerro's misses, the ball comes back down with snow on it!:yahoo:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
23 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Interestingly........

The 3 coldest winters since the war.....

1962-63..... in May 1962, Ipswich claimed their one and only ever League title
1946-47....there was no League in the preceding season of 1945 -46 due to the War
1978-79.... in May 1978, Nottingham Forest claimed their their one and only ever League title

so.....will we be able to add...

2016-17....in May 2016 Leicester claimed their one and only ever League title????

Definitely a promising pattern!!!! :)

 

 This is not being taken seriously enough!!!!! 

I should have included the fact that, since the 2WW there have actually only been three occasions upon which a team has won its only league title.  So history is telling us that every time it happens, we are guaranted a really cold winter 

It's nailed on!!!!  :D:D:D 

Edited by Timmytour
apostrophe removed
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
16 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

 This is not being taken seriously enough!!!!! 

I should have included the fact that, since the 2WW there have actually only been three occasions upon which a team has won its only league title.  So history is telling us that every time it happens, we are guaranted a really cold winter 

It's nailed on!!!!  :D:D:D 

I'm convinced that you are onto a winner here this is why I have just got my self de icer snow shovels and a super duper loud of rock salt.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

First November snow in Tokyo for 54 years....since November 1962 in fact. Trying to think what kind of winter followed on in the UK after that happened last time.... :)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38088036

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

High Pressure at  around 1030 dominant over UK towards the end of November.....where might we have seen this before?


here maybe.....?

Rrea00119621128.gif



 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Not given up on this yet.. :) ...though maybe hopes of a 62/63 winter are fading......

But seeing as how Christmas Day looks like being pretty mild, I thought it worth noting that Christmas Day 1946 had the highest max CET of any day that month after the first.

And Christmas Day 1978 had a higher max CET than the thirteen days preceeding it.....

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
On ‎25‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 08:58, More Snow said:

EC monthly update from Ian in the MOD looks good...

Lol, how much tax payer money is spent on these super models?

When the PV is weak they just aren't capable of forecasting that far ahead and of course when the PV is strong forecasting is much easier.

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  • 9 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Ok....time to resurrect this thread for this year!

Obviously neither football nor snow in Tokyo were good indicators of the way it was pointing last  year!!!

Early signs for this winter......looking at the hurricane en route to Ireland.  And then going back to look at 1961 when Hurricane Debbie hit Ireland.

Now 1961-62 wasn't obviously 1962/63, but it did have some cold snaps and decent snowfalls during it. And one of the coldest ever Marchs!

There was in particular a nice build up to the New Year

Rrea00119611231.gif

So I'm looking for it to travel up north and start bringing the cold down upon us in its wake and creating the beginnings of a a constant susceptibility to northerly incursions throughout the season.

Then next winter the goodies really get delivered   ;):):)

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Location: Reading

Prepare for an interesting diet, lassie23 :D

Seriously, though, we all know that for every proper cold winter there are at least 20 indifferent ones so I'm not getting my hopes up for anything unusual.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A read of the recent thread discussing Uk Winter Northelies and how they seem rarer these days will explain how much harder it is to get cold spells now.

The Arctic has warmed and Arctic maritme incursions from the north now suffer more modification over warmer and more extensive open sea since the 60s.

Our best chance of deep cold now is sourced from Siberia, from the east or north east coming across mainly cold land.Unfortunately good easterlies are now becoming rarer..

Yes we can still get decent cold spells in the Uk -2010 shows that-but as the years roll by they are becoming inceasingly harder to come by in a warming world.

We would need dramatic cooling of the Arctic again before we could conteplate any return to a lenghty period of bitter cold and snow such as seen in 47/63imo.

Not to say of course we could'nt see shorter cold spells but it is a different climatic regime to what it was several decades ago.

I know my expectations for snow and cold in the Uk are much lower now.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

If you can get 1 month of severe cold like December then you can get 3 months of it potentially, I don't believe that global warming is significant enough to prevent that scenario yet, the time climate change will prevent it is when a straight fetch Northerly or Easterly has the uppers so significantly modified that it is marginal, a long way to go for that yet if indeed it happens at all, proper synoptics will still deliver BUT  do I think it will happen this winter?  err no, just based on the percentage chance.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 hours ago, phil nw. said:

A read of the recent thread discussing Uk Winter Northelies and how they seem rarer these days will explain how much harder it is to get cold spells now.

The Arctic has warmed and Arctic maritme incursions from the north now suffer more modification over warmer and more extensive open sea since the 60s.

Our best chance of deep cold now is sourced from Siberia, from the east or north east coming across mainly cold land.Unfortunately good easterlies are now becoming rarer..

Yes we can still get decent cold spells in the Uk -2010 shows that-but as the years roll by they are becoming inceasingly harder to come by in a warming world.

We would need dramatic cooling of the Arctic again before we could conteplate any return to a lenghty period of bitter cold and snow such as seen in 47/63imo.

Not to say of course we could'nt see shorter cold spells but it is a different climatic regime to what it was several decades ago.

I know my expectations for snow and cold in the Uk are much lower now.

 

Brilliant post Phil.

I concur with pretty much all of that- my expectations are now completely suppressed as we approach winter.

I  would take any sort of cold snap 3 to 4 days as a huge bonus,t its hard enough getting blocking highs into the places we need them for UK cold, its now got to the stage were any blocks are blown away by the Atlantic jet in quick time.

To add insult to injury the warming seas now mean even north westerlies are modified - in summary imby i need an easterly or north easterly, and both have almost become extinct in winter.

So, for snow lovers in my location, its a long shot seeing snow at all really.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

It's a bit like buying a lottery ticket and going around asking everybody whether they think you'll win the jackpot. Well there's a miniscule chance I suppose, but it's only realistic to expect not to. Besides from anything else, if such were to occur, I doubt any previous forecast would be so bold.

But as for the specific years in question, it should be remembered that they were pretty unique from one another, with the most intense cold in 46/47 arriving much later than 62/63 and the later was colder but the former was more snowy on average. So it begs the question what is the actual threshold that puts these 2 Winters particularly in their own league? And why isn't say 78/79 considered to be in quite the same league? I guess perhaps that Winter is considered as been more like 09/10, which as good as it was, was no 46/47 or 62/63. Not that I was around for either, but they were clearly something else. Also how far back before 1946/47 would you find another Winter that could be considered equal?

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

I would also like to add that these Winters are fondly remembered by cold fans (or those that were around back then) and are very famous,  for their intense cold and copious snows but it should also be remembered that as long lasting as it all was, neither was a 1st Dec to 28th Feb affair. In that case we had a far better Winter period from 1st Dec to Christmas Day in 2010 than would have happened here in 1946 or 1962. That's one way of looking at it anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

If I ever see snow on the ground that lasts for more tan 5-6 hours here I will be very surprised.  I suspect winters in lowland Britain are now either wet and windy or drier, mild and cloudy, as we've seen for the past few years.  I am utterly convinced that 2010-11 and 2012-13 were the final examples of a winter than AGW has now rendered all but impossible.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 I am utterly convinced that 2010-11 and 2012-13 were the final examples of a winter than AGW has now rendered all but impossible.

I find that very hard to believe.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If I ever see snow on the ground that lasts for more tan 5-6 hours here I will be very surprised.  I suspect winters in lowland Britain are now either wet and windy or drier, mild and cloudy, as we've seen for the past few years.  I am utterly convinced that 2010-11 and 2012-13 were the final examples of a winter than AGW has now rendered all but impossible.

Again, im inclined to agree.

My only hope is this is cyclical, the trouble is with all the damage done with Arctic ice melt etc, we will be long gone before any reversals take effect.if they happen even.

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