Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction

[Gael_Force]

3 hours ago, karyo said:

From the above I can see that Meteo France was way off the mark but Glosea and ECM did reasonably well.

That's what I see. I am not expecting any model to get it spot one but that two did well.

 

I don't see the ECM as doing well...all the models got the January pattern wrong in they had negative mslp in Scandi regions. Not one picked up on the massive Kara-Barents high pressure which just kept growing as the month went on. I agree, the UKMO model was closest for the last month of winter.

[Matthew.]

On 05/10/2016 at 23:34, iapennell said:

 

So late October-November is likely to be mild and substantially wetter than normal in almost all regions of the United Kingdom with prevailing south-westerly winds. Frost is likely to be infrequent at best and I am not expecting an air-frost for most of us until November. East Anglia and SE England are likely to be the driest and (probably) the only regions not to have rainfall above normal during this period, that said the southerly route of some depressions means that even in these areas there will be substantial rainfall at times- good news for those locations that have suffered water shortages over the summer. On the other hand SW England, Wales, NW England, Northern Ireland and SW and NW Scotland can expect frequent onslaughts of gales and heavy rain with localised flooding, particularly during November. The first snows of winter are likely to occur above 500 metres' elevation in Scotland and northern England by mid-November, most likely when depressions on a more southerly track bring chillier north-westerly winds in their wake.

Summarily: October 2016 England and Wales. Mean temperature (lowlands) of 12C, Rainfall 75 mm; Scotland (lowlands) 10C, Rainfall 120 mm

 

At this range, a little early to be sure, it looks like the Mild Sw wind is going to be absent for October. The CET might come in 10.5-11c. Is the quiet sun having a big impact. I've heard strong El-Nino advancing to weak La Niña can produce blocked Autumns as this one seems to be

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

my thoughts for winter is it will be cold and dry similar to the winter of 2005, with HP dominance. Ive noticed HP is becoming more influential over the past three months.

[iapennell]

9 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

At this range, a little early to be sure, it looks like the Mild Sw wind is going to be absent for October. The CET might come in 10.5-11c. Is the quiet sun having a big impact. I've heard strong El-Nino advancing to weak La Niña can produce blocked Autumns as this one seems to be

 

@Matthew Wilson, Met Office charts show the south-westerlies to be returning by Monday with a period of southerlies over the weekend. Synoptics also looking much more unsettled nationwide:

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

 

[Matthew.]

6 minutes ago, iapennell said:

@Matthew Wilson, Met Office charts show the south-westerlies to be returning by Monday with a period of southerlies over the weekend. Synoptics also looking much more unsettled nationwide:

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

 

Yes for a few days. The Mid-term looks like it could switch between High-pressure and NW influence as the trough could go on a NW-SE line. Interesting to see developments in the next week or two. I can't see anything prolonged Mild SW zonality though.

[iapennell]

The French MeteoCentre surface-pressure chart predictions also show warm southerlies dominating (in the main) with low-pressure not far to the west of Britain from Monday:

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=eur&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=000&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=033&fixhh=1

Such a persistent pattern can only bring average temperatures above the seasonal norm with substantial rainfall across much of the country. It also means little likelihood of frost at night for the foreseeable future. This ties in with my prediction for late October-November 2016- mild, wet across much of Britain (except perhaps the SE) due to some depressions tracking further south over the NE Atlantic (as indeed some are doing) with south/SW winds thanks to high-pressure over eastern Europe. Noteworthy that the big Scandinavian Block is predicted with both the Met Office and MeteoCentre runs to have the centre of this block retreat south and eastwards into Eastern Europe/Russia, as I suspected it might.

Only the Wetterzentrale (German) surface-pressure runs have the block to remain in place with possible high-pressure over Britain next week. Wetterzentrale  is usually optimistic about colder drier scenarios compared to the UKMO and French model, which leads me to suggest it may place too much emphasis on upper-level (500 mb) thickness heights and underscores the effect of AAM budget considerations, which are also important: The former will be influenced by the latter and not just by pure consideration of atmospheric temperatures and seasonal cooling (and extents to which this affected by warm sea-surface temperature).

There has been a lot of easterly winds over Europe (and over much of North America) over the last fortnight, westerlies over the North Atlantic have been relatively weak which is indicative of a blocked phase of the Zonal Index Cycle (pressure gradient between 35 and 55N). At such times in both autumn and winter when the NE Trade Winds in lower latitudes are stronger, especially as the QBO remains Westerly, there is an accumulation of Westerly AAM in the atmosphere over higher latitudes and this excess must find an outlet sooner or later- hence the deeper depressions moving into the NE Atlantic we now see and all that that entails: Whilst one might quite like the offerings of Wetterzentrale, one should not, perhaps, take it's offerings as gospel (especially when our UKMO and the French model does not support Wetterzentrale in it's- suggestive- crispy, dry outlooks)!.

[Hocus Pocus]

All the model output I've seen is suggestive of the dryish theme to continue into the first week of November?

[iapennell]

22 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes for a few days. The Mid-term looks like it could switch between High-pressure and NW influence as the trough could go on a NW-SE line. Interesting to see developments in the next week or two. I can't see anything prolonged Mild SW zonality though.

It probably is not going to be particularly zonal for the foreseeable future because high-pressure is still going to hang on to the east of Britain. That essentially is the worst of both worlds for lovers of cold dry weather because the block and resistence to westerly AAM is not strong enough to allow high-pressure and cool dry easterlies to persist over Britain but at the same time there is enough persistent influence of high-pressure to our east such that, with low-pressure pushing against the western sea-boards of NW Europe, Britain is trapped in between with warm moist southerlies or south-westerlies from lower latitudes which (with low-pressure to the west) bring plenty of cloud and (at times) drizzly rain. If the pressure was not high to the east then depressions could push east to the north of Britain to give much more scope for short north-westerly incursions which, with a following ridge of high-pressure- could result in frost at night and a bright cool day following. North-westerly air is often a lot clearer than southerlies when low-pressure is stuck to the west!

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, iapennell said:

It probably is not going to be particularly zonal for the foreseeable future because high-pressure is still going to hang on to the east of Britain. That essentially is the worst of both worlds for lovers of cold dry weather because the block and resistence to westerly AAM is not strong enough to allow high-pressure and cool dry easterlies to persist over Britain but at the same time there is enough persistent influence of high-pressure to our east such that, with low-pressure pushing against the western sea-boards of NW Europe, Britain is trapped in between with warm moist southerlies or south-westerlies from lower latitudes which (with low-pressure to the west) bring plenty of cloud and (at times) drizzly rain. If the pressure was not high to the east then depressions could push east to the north of Britain to give much more scope for short north-westerly incursions which, with a following ridge of high-pressure- could result in frost at night and a bright cool day following. North-westerly air is often a lot clearer than southerlies when low-pressure is stuck to the west!

Hmmmmm but you suggested a couple of weeks ago that most places wont see a frost until mid November? That looks way off the mark looking at the NWP output this evening Ian, i'd be expecting frosts to develop next week as we pull in cooler continental air from the east..

 

[iapennell]

4 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

All the model output I've seen is suggestive of the dryish theme to continue into the first week of November?

Dryish, for the SE of England and (possibly) East Anglia too, I agree. Here in the North Pennines it's been Wet Wet Wet (!) the last few days.

IF ONLY the persistent high was near Iceland and extended a ridge south-eastwards with LOW PRESSURE over Europe (and that was in the forecasts) we would have much more exciting late October weather and going into November. Something like what happened in October-November 1993!

[Hocus Pocus]

7 minutes ago, iapennell said:

Dryish, for the SE of England and (possibly) East Anglia too, I agree. Here in the North Pennines it's been Wet Wet Wet (!) the last few days.

IF ONLY the persistent high was near Iceland and extended a ridge south-eastwards with LOW PRESSURE over Europe (and that was in the forecasts) we would have much more exciting late October weather and going into November. Something like what happened in October-November 1993!

We've hardly seen much in the way of rain this side of the Pennines for the last month and looking at the MetO 16-30 forecasts they are expecting the dryish theme to continue for the majority Ian.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

We've hardly seen much in the way of rain this side of the Pennines for the last month and looking at the MetO 16-30 forecasts they are expecting the dryish theme to continue for the majority Ian.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Looks like old school Autumn weather to me? Dry and cool with potential for some frost and fog...

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Looks like old school Autumn weather to me? Dry and cool with potential for some frost and fog...

Indeed!

Seems to be a problem here with Ian quoting Meteocentre and Wetterzentrale as being models. Both those sites show all the models we look at so some clarification as to what specific model he is referring to. The public models from the French are only out to 5 days so no use for longer range.

Meteocentre is French/Canadian and I think that's the GEM in the link up the page. I presume what he calls Wetterzentrale is actually the GFS but would help to know this.

[bobbydog]

17 hours ago, iapennell said:

The French MeteoCentre surface-pressure chart predictions also show warm southerlies dominating (in the main) with low-pressure not far to the west of Britain from Monday:

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=eur&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=000&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=033&fixhh=1

Such a persistent pattern can only bring average temperatures above the seasonal norm with substantial rainfall across much of the country. It also means little likelihood of frost at night for the foreseeable future. This ties in with my prediction for late October-November 2016- mild, wet across much of Britain (except perhaps the SE) due to some depressions tracking further south over the NE Atlantic

Ian. That is completely  at odds with what the Met Office  is saying in their extended forecast.

"UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Oct 2016 to Friday 28 Oct 2016:

There'll initially be some rain or showers in the east on Wednesday before high pressure builds from the west. The high then extends across the rest of the UK, bringing more settled conditions through the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry conditions with sunny spells by day, with possible frost, mist and fog patches overnight. Temperatures will be near normal, but with some cold nights. A west-east split is then likely into the following week, where it'll likely stay settled and mostly dry in the east and south-east, but mist and fog are likely overnight with some chilly nights too. The greatest risk of more unsettled weather will be in the west and northwest though, where further outbreaks of rain and strong winds are possible at times.

Updated at: 1301 on Fri 14 Oct 2016

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Oct 2016 to Saturday 12 Nov 2016:

From late October current signals are for a reduced likelihood of typical autumn storminess, with slow transitions between spells of settled and unsettled conditions most likely. Although the general signal is for mainly settled conditions, we will see some short periods of rain, the heaviest and most frequent of these are likely in the west and northwest, with also a risk of some strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to balance out close to average through this period, but with the possibility of some chilly nights too."

Also as others have pointed out, Wetterzentrale is not a model but a site which shows the same models as the other sites such as Meteociele.

[iapennell]

On 10/15/2016 at 11:24, bobbydog said:

Ian. That is completely  at odds with what the Met Office  is saying in their extended forecast.

"UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Oct 2016 to Friday 28 Oct 2016:

There'll initially be some rain or showers in the east on Wednesday before high pressure builds from the west. The high then extends across the rest of the UK, bringing more settled conditions through the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry conditions with sunny spells by day, with possible frost, mist and fog patches overnight. Temperatures will be near normal, but with some cold nights. A west-east split is then likely into the following week, where it'll likely stay settled and mostly dry in the east and south-east, but mist and fog are likely overnight with some chilly nights too. The greatest risk of more unsettled weather will be in the west and northwest though, where further outbreaks of rain and strong winds are possible at times.

Updated at: 1301 on Fri 14 Oct 2016

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Oct 2016 to Saturday 12 Nov 2016:

From late October current signals are for a reduced likelihood of typical autumn storminess, with slow transitions between spells of settled and unsettled conditions most likely. Although the general signal is for mainly settled conditions, we will see some short periods of rain, the heaviest and most frequent of these are likely in the west and northwest, with also a risk of some strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to balance out close to average through this period, but with the possibility of some chilly nights too."

Also as others have pointed out, Wetterzentrale is not a model but a site which shows the same models as the other sites such as Meteociele.

@ bobbydog: I actually hope I am wrong and that the large block over Scandinavia that has brought easterly winds for much of the month persists- and does indeed bring something cold and frosty- in contradiction to my prediction (Wetterzentrale and now Meteociele offer some hope in that regard). That said, despite the persistent east winds it has remained stubbornly mild (even where I live in the North Pennines) and the coldest it has got to date is 2C with a slight ground-frost! Also, with low-pressure moving in to the south of Britain last week there has been substantial rainfall too. It could be something to do with the fact that the North Sea has been unseasonably warm after a warm September and also the fact that the easterlies have tended to come in from Central Europe (no further) or, if they have come from further afield, have come across from Ukraine/SW Russia and the Balkan States (none of which are yet really cold in early-mid October).

As regards the North Pennines, mean temperatures have (overall) held up to a degree or two warmer than the long-term October norm for just over 400 metres up in the North Pennines. Something colder might come along before the end of the month and I hope we do get our first air-frost before November but with only twelve more nights left this month my hope for it happening is starting to wane! I don't know what the experience of most of us on this Forum is exactly, I suspect that most folk have not recorded an air frost as yet (except for a few notable frost-hollow exceptions). I know I am a little out on the expected wind-directions (I was not expecting blocking over Scandinavia- central pressure over 1040 mb- to bring easterly winds to Britain for most of October), but the mild frost-free prognosis (wetter towards the west) is not so far out- bar one or two notable exceptions like NW England being dry!!

As regards the winter months I expect it to be colder (less mild) than last year and less wet but I am not anticipating a colder-than-normal season overall. January-February offer the best likelihood of very cold dry weather due to blocking in high latitudes and I am certain that there will be one or two such spells this coming season.

 

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, iapennell said:

@ bobbydog: I actually hope I am wrong and that the large block over Scandinavia that has brought easterly winds for much of the month persists- and does indeed bring something cold and frosty- in contradiction to my prediction (Wetterzentrale and now Meteociele offer some hope in that regard). That said, despite the persistent east winds it has remained stubbornly mild (even where I live in the North Pennines) and the coldest it has got to date is 2C with a slight ground-frost! Also, with low-pressure moving in to the south of Britain last week there has been substantial rainfall too. It could be something to do with the fact that the North Sea has been unseasonably warm after a warm September and also the fact that the easterlies have tended to come in from Central Europe (no further) or, if they have come from further afield, have come across from Ukraine/SW Russia and the Balkan States (none of which are yet really cold in early-mid October).

As regards the North Pennines, mean temperatures have (overall) held up to a degree or two warmer than the long-term October norm for just over 400 metres up in the North Pennines. Something colder might come along before the end of the month and I hope we do get our first air-frost before November but with only twelve more nights left this month my hope for it happening is starting to wane! I don't know what the experience of most of us on this Forum is exactly, I suspect that most folk have not recorded an air frost as yet (except for a few notable frost-hollow exceptions). I know I am a little out on the expected wind-directions (I was not expecting blocking over Scandinavia- central pressure over 1040 mb- to bring easterly winds to Britain for most of October), but the mild frost-free prognosis (wetter towards the west) is not so far out- bar one or two notable exceptions like NW England being dry!!

As regards the winter months I expect it to be colder (less mild) than last year and less wet but I am not anticipating a colder-than-normal season overall. January-February offer the best likelihood of very cold dry weather due to blocking in high latitudes and I am certain that there will be one or two such spells this coming season.

 

I don't think that anyone knows - not you and not me? If we did, we'd be millionaires by  now?

[Walsall Wood Snow]

The idea of you seeing the possibility at least of very cold spells during January and/or February is a bit at least a step in the right direction. Hopefully your thoughts on the prospects for cold weather this coming Winter will improve with time. Slowly but surely. I mean come on Ian we both know you really want your preliminary prediction to be a bust and what you really want your prediction to be is your fantasy Winter you posted in the 'Winter thoughts and hopes' thread  .

Edited October 19, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Methuselah]

There's always the possibility of cold weather in January. ..But how can anyone predict it, two months hence?

IMO, such foresight is impossible?

[Walsall Wood Snow]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There's always the possibility of cold weather in January. ..But how can anyone predict it, two months hence?

IMO, such foresight is impossible?

All long range forecasts are educated guesses really. Some years though will look more conducive to the likelihood of them, whereas others will look more conducive to mild weather. But it's all down to individual interpretation, and indeed nobody can say anything for sure at that range. No harm in making a punt though as long as you've got a fairly good understanding of meteorology. As Ian is a committed Christian though I'm sure he'll agree that the only one who knows for certain though is God.

[weirpig]

As predictions goes  here is JUdah Cohen prediction for this winter  in the USA    he is basing this on  a weak polar vortex  which could lead to a SSW   and above normal snow advance   what will it mean for here?  who knows.

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

[northwestsnow]

Late Oct into November looks primed to be the complete oppposite of your forecast Ian - thats not a gloat or a dig, i am certainly interested in your forecasting, i would be interested if you could give an appraisal on the current situation and where we go from here

Edited October 23, 2016 by northwestsnow

[karyo]

On 10/20/2016 at 09:46, weirpig said:

As predictions goes  here is JUdah Cohen prediction for this winter  in the USA    he is basing this on  a weak polar vortex  which could lead to a SSW   and above normal snow advance   what will it mean for here?  who knows.

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

The key for us here is the above average anomaly in the far northeast states and East Canada. This seems to me like a classic warm air advection to the west of Greenland with an Atlantic/Greenland block!

[mountain shadow]

24 minutes ago, karyo said:

The key for us here is the above average anomaly in the far northeast states and East Canada. This seems to me like a classic warm air advection to the west of Greenland with an Atlantic/Greenland block!

Certainly looks like it to me too and ties in with the NOAA forecast too.

Hard to keep the feet on the ground when things are looking so good so far.

[karyo]

20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Certainly looks like it to me too and ties in with the NOAA forecast too.

Hard to keep the feet on the ground when things are looking so good so far.

If we manage to get a cold winter or at least a winter with decent cold spells it will be a right bonus! We have the years of the solar minimum to look forward to when the chances for cold winters increase.

[iapennell]

The Ferrel Westerlies are back, now as we draw to the end of October. Much as I suspected they might be and going into November looks set to be wet and windy. The BBC long-term outlook for November suggests high-pressure will often be close to Britain during the month but that they still expect frontal passages and, whilst they believe that high-pressure will result in fog and frost at times, they are not expecting anything out of the ordinary for November.

Check out the latest longer-term outlook charts on Wetterzentrale and the BBC Outlook for the month ahead. There is high-pressure over Greenland but also pressure looks set to be lower over Scandinavia leading to a spell of north-westerlies but mild southerlies return by the 10th November (Wetterzentrale)

Edited October 26, 2016 by iapennell