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Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    3 hours ago, Seasonality said:

    I've read the model thread in the past before taking the plunge and creating an account here. The worst posts tended to be illiterate as well as lacking in meteorological knowledge. It seems to be a playground for trolls.

    That said, this is a brilliant forum and there are very knowledgable posters here from whom we can learn a lot. The ignore user function is handy so you can sort the wheat from the chaff. There are so many positives to netweather they outweigh the negative of the model forum silliness in winter IMHO.

     

    Find that attitude a bit pompous,netweather is a brilliant forum,,many various threads and sub forums to engage on. Folk aren't illiterate as you state,they enjoy the banter and yes sometimes it goes over the top,but everybody is different with how the both view's and comment on the weather. That is why it is called the Netweather Community,ever community has it's variation in opinions and ways of voicing them. Sorry wheat and the chaff statement is wrong in my opinion,ever bodies opinion counts,regardless of how they voice it. But that's just my opinion. Oh and by the way,welcome to the Community.!

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

    As much as I love snow more than anything, all I hope for is some proper cold, frosty mornings. Snow would just be a bonus.

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    3 hours ago, Seasonality said:

    I've read the model thread in the past before taking the plunge and creating an account here. The worst posts tended to be illiterate as well as lacking in meteorological knowledge. It seems to be a playground for trolls.

    That said, this is a brilliant forum and there are very knowledgable posters here from whom we can learn a lot. The ignore user function is handy so you can sort the wheat from the chaff. There are so many positives to netweather they outweigh the negative of the model forum silliness in winter IMHO.

     

    Wow !

    I happen to like model forum silliness and grown adults getting excited over a flake of snow at 4am. This thread is for thoughts/hopes etc. I have been interested in the weather for 45 years and will continue to post in the 'appropriate threads'. You will probably need to ignore 95% who don't have a PHD in meteorology :sorry: 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms
  • Location: Kesgrave, Ipswich

    I see the beast is showing a royal flush early doors. Would be great to see him come back for another game early December. :cold:Hoping for something a little more seasonal this year.

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I think i will  hopefully spend more time in the regional forum this winter, while i like my own region for obvious reasons i actually enjoy visiting other regions, esp at a time when snow is on the cards! I will of course read the model thread but will probably refrain from posting that much in there, i have my reasons....:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Swords, Co. Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Swords, Co. Dublin, Ireland

    I would like to echo the comments from stewfox above. This is truly the best and most informative forums. It is especially enjoyable as we approach Winter. Every year at this time my own excitement builds and then the rollercoasters commence! What an experience to see the forum going into meltdown in the expectation of another repeat of 2010!

    So, what are my expectations for this coming Winter? Well, being from Dublin, I can only repeat the sentiment expressed in that ad for a certain dark drink - "in the home of the black stuff they still dream of a white one"!

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    I see there is speculation of an early start to Winter such as happened in 2010/11. I'm trying not to get my hopes up too much on that front in case it doesn't come off, but it's an exciting idea nonetheless. What a brilliant early Winter it was. For me December is Christmas month and for years I've been putting my Christmas decorations up on the 1st December. In 2010 I fondly remember doing so with snow outside, both on the ground and falling, with great long icicles hanging from the sheds outside. That year nature joined me with the festive ritual. Also watching Christmas films and cartoons and such that month with both snow on screen and actually outside the window too. And to top it off a deep lying layer of snow and sub zero temperatures on the big day itself. It was truly magical and a proper Christmas card scene environment. 2009 wasn't half bad either but it started later and unfortunately here we had a thaw on Christmas Eve, leaving nothing but a few little bits of residual stuff in the odd spot. The only disappointing aspect of Winter 2010/11 as an whole though was that its potency ended too early (27th December) leaving 2 months of Winter with nothing much except a bit of short lived thin lying snow in January and then a mild February. It was still a brilliant Winter though for late November and December alone and was great for the festive period. But if we had a similar one again I'd like it to last into January and February aswell. On the other hand I'd more than happily take a carbon copy rather than any of the most recent 3 Winters any day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    Great to see this thread so active so early in the season!

    A few observations early in the season

    Firstly - the talk of the model thread. It's both a frustrating but often bizarrely hilarious place to be in - I've never experienced so many adults throwing their toys out the pram over the insignificant shift of a body of pressure/temperature by a couple of hundred miles equating to an effect on a surface area of the earth probably equating to little more than about 3% of the total surface area...and yet, that's one of the most endearing things about it. One of the founding principles of the World Wide Web that Sir Tim Berners Lee et al. envisioned was the democratisation of information and the ability for people of all abilities, backgrounds, ages and wealth (or lack of) to have access to the answers to just about everything you could ever hope to find out about. I personally am somebody who grew up with a passion for weather through the 90's/early  00's and was one of the earliest adopters of both the Netweather Forums and the old BBC snowwatch forums that went before it. And do you know what, I was able to ask the most stupid questions, make the most stupid mistakes when reading charts and most vitally, learn from the very best of both the amateur and (more particularly in recent years) professional weather nuts out there. I've even been fortunate enough as a result of all of this learning to become a paid weather forecaster for a period in my life, realising a many years old ambition and it was in huge part thanks to the advice, support and knowledge I was fortunate enough to receive from the model thread on this very forum. So never ever take what you have available at your fingertips here for granted. I hope people both old and young with a passion for weather continue to use this fantastic resource (and the truly wonderful posters alongside this) for many years to come and find themselves in the same position as I was fortunate enough to find myself in.

     

    Anyway, before I get booted off of the forum for going off topic - what a fascinating winter ahead. Once again we find ourselves in the abyss of "it's going to be one of those learning winters" - which I know will be truly infuriating for those of you who are just hopeful for a decent bit of cold and snow this winter, but I hope you can take comfort from the fact that for weather nerds like me and numerous others on here who I will not explicitly name as nerds for fear of reprisals (*cough*@lorenzo @Tamara @Steve Murr @chionomaniac @nick sussex @phil nw. and too many more to name) a winter with an almost alien QBO profile offers yet another fantastic learning opportunity in this bonkers modern climate of ours.

     

    I'm swanning off over to the other side of the world for 5 weeks next week but if I get some time before hand I'll do my best to try and pull out some sort of analogue years to base any early punts upon - it's going to be a bit of a tall order because QBO filtering usually features heavily in the dataset.

    Anyway, seasons greetings to all, I am enjoying the seasonal chill in the air this week and here's to another rollercoaster ride of a season.

    SK

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    I'd like a winter where the Atlantic is not sending endless storms, wind and rain to batter us for weeks and months on end, like some recent winters. Some storms are normal of course and exciting in their own way but I'd love to see a lot more high pressure, giving crisp sunny days, frost mist and fog by night. A couple of brief snowy spells too would be good as long as it's not a slush-fest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    14 hours ago, markyo said:

    Find that attitude a bit pompous,netweather is a brilliant forum,,many various threads and sub forums to engage on. Folk aren't illiterate as you state,they enjoy the banter and yes sometimes it goes over the top,but everybody is different with how the both view's and comment on the weather. That is why it is called the Netweather Community,ever community has it's variation in opinions and ways of voicing them. Sorry wheat and the chaff statement is wrong in my opinion,ever bodies opinion counts,regardless of how they voice it. But that's just my opinion. Oh and by the way,welcome to the Community.!

    Woah there! Pompous? I think you and Stewfox have me all wrong. I get excited at extreme weather as much as the next man. I'm referring to the thankfully few posters who go out of their way to wind up and anger other people and create a negative atmosphere. There is no denying you get some of that every year. In every community you get people who are just wrong and deliberately disruptive, that is a fact of life. I happily read the contributions of probably 99% of the members here, it is only a tiny minority who cause any issues. Chill everyone! I meant no offence. Its too early in the season to get so worked up ;)

    But back on topic, hopefully this cool weather bodes well for the season ahead. Also a question, I see Accuweather has a 90 days ahead function, can anyone tell me which model creates this forecast? Or do they have their own data? It doesn't seem to be showing anything exceptional for the UK coming up. Pretty average really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    @Seasonality 

    I think Accuweather use the GFS

    Two weather have a similar feature for

    150 days 

    a load of tosh really  fun to look at but

    for me I don't look at more than five

    days advance  (maybe three in winter)

    Welcome to the forum by the way.

    you seem very knowledgeable look

    forward to reading your posts on the

    MOD thread in the coming months.

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    23 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

    @Seasonality 

    I think Accuweather use the GFS

    Two weather have a similar feature for

    150 days 

    a load of tosh really  fun to look at but

    for me I don't look at more than five

    days advance  (maybe three in winter)

    Welcome to the forum by the way.

    you seem very knowledgeable look

    forward to reading your posts on the

    MOD thread in the coming months.

    C.S

    I wouldn't call myself very knowledgeable, I'm nowhere near the levels of knowledge of the many seasoned experts here, just an interested amateur. Interesting charts appearing in the models now. Pop on over to the mod thread and you can see some optimism, even if they're only FI charts for now and it is only the first week of October. We can only hope!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Accuweather winter forecast

    Quote

     

    Europe winter forecast: Frequent storms to batter UK; Mild winter to spare France and Germany

    An active storm track across the north Atlantic Ocean will produce a high number of storms tracking across western and central Europe this winter. Eastern Europe will experience a more tranquil and mild winter; however, a significant cold shot or two is predicted during the second half of the season.

    Storms to frequent British Isles with rain and wind

    A stormy weather pattern will set in before wintertime with active weather during the second half of October across Ireland and the United Kingdom. At least one named windstorm is expected during this time before a lull in windstorms in November. However, storm systems may still bring locally heavy rainfall at times during the month. The most active period of weather will be during the official winter months from December through February. December and February will bring the potential for multiple windstorms within a week.

    The greatest wind threat is expected across Northern Ireland and Scotland while significant, but less frequent, damaging wind events will impact Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. "Above-normal rainfall across the U.K. and Ireland will result in another winter of flooding problems," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said. Frequent storms from the Atlantic will keep cold air at bay as milder air from the ocean results in near- to above-normal temperatures. The lack of cold air will limit snowfall throughout the season; however, brief shots of cold air may produce some low elevation snowfall at times. Locations with the greatest threat for impactful snowfall include Edinburgh and Sheffield.

    650x366_09281539_2016-17-europe-winter-h

     

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

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    Sunny and nice if Hillary was elected, rainy wet and warm if Donald Trump was elected. If I was global warming I'd start showing off now seeing that Trump supporters actively deny global warming only because Trump is given wads of money by the big corporations.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Sensible, realistic forecast from them SS, wouldn't be surprised to see Ian Pennell forecasting similar, anyone else think he is accurate?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Sensible, realistic forecast from them SS, wouldn't be surprised to see Ian Pennell forecasting similar, anyone else think he is accurate?

    I'll tell you in April 

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Can't really argue with that from accuweather they have pretty much nailed there forecast for the uk last two winters. Not too keen on more heavy rain and windstorms again. But we have to deal with the hand we are dealt with. And it does sound as though we may get at least one snow event which is certainly better than last couple of winters. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    9 hours ago, Seasonality said:

    Woah there! Pompous? I think you and Stewfox have me all wrong. I get excited at extreme weather as much as the next man. I'm referring to the thankfully few posters who go out of their way to wind up and anger other people and create a negative atmosphere. There is no denying you get some of that every year. In every community you get people who are just wrong and deliberately disruptive, that is a fact of life. I happily read the contributions of probably 99% of the members here, it is only a tiny minority who cause any issues. Chill everyone! I meant no offence. Its too early in the season to get so worked up ;)

    But back on topic, hopefully this cool weather bodes well for the season ahead. Also a question, I see Accuweather has a 90 days ahead function, can anyone tell me which model creates this forecast? Or do they have their own data? It doesn't seem to be showing anything exceptional for the UK coming up. Pretty average really.

    Absolutely agree 100% with that highlighted part Seasonality, by the way, czesc ! :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    11 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Can't really argue with that from accuweather they have pretty much nailed there forecast for the uk last two winters. Not too keen on more heavy rain and windstorms again. But we have to deal with the hand we are dealt with. And it does sound as though we may get at least one snow event which is certainly better than last couple of winters. 

    For last winter if my memory serves me correct they predicted a seasonal winter in the uk with slightly colder conditions on Scotland and ni . And we know what happened.  So they hardly nailed it however they may have it right . I'll wait for the glosea update before I spit my dummy out 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    So just going back to my musings regarding the AO-

    I may spend some more time reviewing it this week - however as I mentioned the other day an October Month has only ever come out below -1.5 twice & that was 2012 & 2009-

    if we look at the 12z & certainly the ensemble mean from the 00z run which takes us towards midmonth then that record potentially seems under threat -

    image.jpg

    I would hazard a guess we are around -2 by mid month if it varifies - of course with 2 weeks post that then it could all change...

    what does it mean, well there have been some assertions that due to the ice loss & subsequent reduction in thermal gradient that October would see a slower start to the zonal westerlies & that more negative AOs would become apparent- & this certainly holds water with the record -1.5 Oct 2012 as it was also the lowest ice minimum year -

    However if this was the case the since 2007 this should have been apparent, but the results are a mixed bag-

    The 2 record years 09 & 12 mixed in with generally averageness - so maybe whilst the ice loss theory probably plays a part- I suspect thats its just aome of the make up-

    That said it seems that it seems to support a big negative swing towards 'negativeness' V what may have been the case in that year -

    So my brief summary would be that the October AO isnt 100% correlated to a blocked winter, however if it turns out heavily negative then one would assume the background support is there as well-

    I would also add, that -AO octobers followed by -AO novembers tend to really support a blocked winter as well- however I need to check that !

     

    S

    PS 2009 oct -1.5 dec -3.4 jan -2.4 feb -4.2

    2012 oct -1.5 dec -1.7 march -3.18

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    I wonder if two blocked Octobers on the trot will be followed by two mild winters on the trot. That forecast doesn't look too promising, but it is one of many. Time will tell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    Accoweather appear to have copied and pasted a mix of bits from the winters of stormy 2013/14 and 2014/15 . Even down to the very specific highlighting of Sheffield as having impactful snow.  

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