Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[damianslaw]

Certainly looking like winter 16/17 will end up much drier than winter 15/16 but given it was exceptionally wet - not that difficult to achieve. What is notable is how anticyclonic it has been since the summer, after a long protracted zonal period starting roughly December 2013 with little in the way of persistant blocked high pressure features (outside of autumn), we've seen a marked change in fortune since the summer.

I've commented many a time on how we tend to see lengthy dry and wet periods or average periods, very wet often followed by very dry and vice versa.. With this is mind, I woldn't be too surprised to see the dry theme continue through the rest of the winter and into spring, with weak atlantic attacks. Temperature wise, quite variable overall all dependent on where the high parks itself. Wouldn't be surprised to see the cold synoptics arrive just in time for spring.. winter 05/06 did this, very dry overall with a cold second half to Nov, and a cold end to Feb and much of March but for most of the winter, the block held in a position that prevented the very cold air to the east of us making inroads, with one or two tentative goes most notably late Dec. That winter however, did see more significant ridging to the north, meaning very little in the way of mild weather at all.

Edited January 2, 2017 by damianslaw

[Weather-history]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Certainly looking like winter 16/17 will end up much drier than winter 15/16 but given it was exceptionally wet - not that difficult to achieve. What is notable is how anticyclonic it has been since the summer, after a long protracted zonal period starting roughly December 2013 with little in the way of persistant blocked high pressure features (outside of autumn), we've seen a marked change in fortune since the summer.

I've commented many a time on how we tend to see lengthy dry and wet periods or average periods, very wet often followed by very dry and vice versa.. With this is mind, I woldn't be too surprised to see the dry theme continue through the rest of the winter and into spring, with weak atlantic attacks. Temperature wise, quite variable overall all dependent on where the high parks itself. Wouldn't be surprised to see the cold synoptics arrive just in time for spring.. winter 05/06 did this, very dry overall with a cold second half to Nov, and a cold end to Feb and much of March but for most of the winter, the block held in a position that prevented the very cold air to the east of us making inroads, with one or two tentative goes most notably late Dec. That winter however, did see more significant ridging to the north, meaning very little in the way of mild weather at all.

Talking about winter 2005-06, I seem to recall one or two pundits at the time were saying that was as good as it would get for a winter now in the UK.

Then came the trio of 2008-09 to 2010-11. 

[Brucie]

28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Talking about winter 2005-06, I seem to recall one or two pundits at the time were saying that was as good as it would get for a winter now in the UK.

Then came the trio of 2008-09 to 2010-11. 

This is interesting as 2005-06 saw, like this winter, solar activity declining from solar max.  It was not until 2008-09 that we started seeing the effects of low solar activity in winter.  This leads me to think that we have a much better chance of cold winter periods in the next few years, allowing for the time lag.

David, Northallerton

[lassie23]

My thoughts are that this is turning into a tedious winter and my hopes are that it finishes quickly so we can get to next winter when everything will finally favour a cold winter.

[Summer of 95]

Ok, I'll come out with it... this winter reminds me of 1991/2 

Not short on frost, cold nights, fog and sunshine, lots of anticyclones/inversions interspersed with milder spells, but completely snowless. It was only ever cold when it was dry.... Wasn't a very mild winter overall, but it had even less snow than 13/14 or 15/16.

[ManiaMuse]

For all the moaning in the model threads, at least it's been mostly dry and benign (at least in my backyard in the NW).

Could be much, much worse (i.e. endless wind and rain like last winter). Decent amount of sunshine compared to last year as well at least in my perception.

Knowing the UK though it will stay dry until May when the government will announce a hosepipe ban because of drought before it rains all summer...

[markyo]

http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/live_weather.htm

 

Wonder how many places have something like this,find it very good show seeing the local trend over a short term

[sundog]

5 hours ago, lassie23 said:

My thoughts are that this is turning into a tedious winter and my hopes are that it finishes quickly so we can get to next winter when everything will finally favour a cold winter.

It will be spring before we know it. Even saw some easter eggs in my local tesco store today lol.

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, sundog said:

It will be spring before we know it. Even saw some easter eggs in my local tesco store today lol.

lol isn't easter in April this year

[sundog]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol isn't easter in April this year

Yes,the 16th of April.

[lassie23]

Just now, sundog said:

Yes,the 16th of April.

Easter is becoming the new Christmas

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

Ok, I'll come out with it... this winter reminds me of 1991/2 

Not short on frost, cold nights, fog and sunshine, lots of anticyclones/inversions interspersed with milder spells, but completely snowless. It was only ever cold when it was dry.... Wasn't a very mild winter overall, but it had even less snow than 13/14 or 15/16.

Add in the following winter (1992-93)  which had also had anticyclonic spells, February 1993 was very anticyclonic, they were two pretty snowless winters overall at least south of the Border. Scotland did better with 1992-93. 

[cheese]

5 hours ago, ManiaMuse said:

For all the moaning in the model threads, at least it's been mostly dry and benign (at least in my backyard in the NW).

Could be much, much worse (i.e. endless wind and rain like last winter). Decent amount of sunshine compared to last year as well at least in my perception.

Knowing the UK though it will stay dry until May when the government will announce a hosepipe ban because of drought before it rains all summer...

Yup. I know people in the West Yorkshire valleys are sleeping easy! No flooding issues this winter. Looks like a dry and sunny December for England.

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Unsettled in the north
Drier further south
Some uncertainty

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38503221

[Summer Sun]

Early next week

Wetter and windier in the North and west

Milder cloudy and largely dry for the south

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38513850

[Peter H]

Models flipping about all over the place after next Friday.

All agree on a plunge of cold air at the end of next week, but this afternoon they had a Scandinavian high and bitterly cold air over us at the end of the run. Now we still have the Scandinavian high but with the milder air winning out. This morning the high was to the south of us and we had mild south westerlies .

There does seem to be some really cold air over central and eastern Europe, and the US but we seem to be stuck in this mild segment in the middle.

Here's hoping.

 

[Peter H]

On ‎03‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 16:26, lassie23 said:

lol isn't easter in April this year

Easter 1975 was in April and it was a snowy one, although the snow didn't really settle.

We had a fantastic summer that year.

The winter of 1974/75 was exceptionally mild.

 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Milder cloudy and wet as lows arrive

Colder as the lows pull away hopfully more in the way of sunshine from time to time

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38522668

[iapennell]

Scotland and northernmost parts of England missed out on the really cold settled and frosty spells that affected the Midlands and South both early and late in December 2016, not once did the temperature drop below -1C during December at my home over 400 metres up in the North Pennines. Almost continuously on the northern margins of the high-pressure meant we had persistent mild south-westerlies and only one snow-cover day during the month (Boxing Day); thankfully it was much less wet and stormy than last December.

This month is shaping up to what I expected it to be- mainly Atlantic dominated but some short cold frosty spells following Arctic incursions. Had -5C early yesterday morning at my home but by this evening mild south-westerlies have returned and it's back up to 6C with a little rain. Short sharp Arctic snap (with snow-showers possible in Scotland and the North) looking likely to occur later next week, sharp frost at night as skies clear, then another bout of mild wet and wind following. I do not expect any major trend towards really severe cold and snow, especially now that the latest December figures for QBO high over the Equator, averaged at 30 mb and 50 mb were 15 m/s and 9 m/s respectively (both from the West). North-east Canada and Greenland are now very cold whilst sea-surface temperatures in the far North Atlantic are still warmer than usual.

If anything these indications point to February-March being particularly stormy across the North, the cold-patch south of Iceland ensuring any west or NW winds following depressions will be cold enough to bring snow to the northern half of Britain: Even so the prevailing winds will be westerlies which will push milder air into mainland Europe and remove snow-cover (so that central and eastern Europe absorb heat from the Sun and warm up) so that the South will have little risk from late cold snaps from the east heading towards Spring. I expect a couple of cold dry spells across the country in February- on the basis that the anomalous warmth over the Arctic interior combined with snow-cover over Eurasia will keep the Circumpolar Vortex weaker than normal into February (as per my forecast). Nonetheless I would assert -on the Westerly strength of the QBO (which will feed into the general circulation of the Northern Hemisphere by late February) and the strong baroclinic gradient between Greenland/NE Canada and the northern North Atlantic likely by then that late February daffodils are an increasingly distinct possibility for anyone living south of Birmingham!

It is also looking increasingly like we will have, for the first time in a few years, some proper March gales- even in the South.  

[Summer Sun]

Next weekend

Colder again
More sunshine
Wintry showers (particularly over high ground in the north)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38535511

[lassie23]

2 hours ago, iapennell said:

Scotland and northernmost parts of England missed out on the really cold settled and frosty spells that affected the Midlands and South both early and late in December 2016, not once did the temperature drop below -1C during December at my home over 400 metres up in the North Pennines. Almost continuously on the northern margins of the high-pressure meant we had persistent mild south-westerlies and only one snow-cover day during the month (Boxing Day); thankfully it was much less wet and stormy than last December.

This month is shaping up to what I expected it to be- mainly Atlantic dominated but some short cold frosty spells following Arctic incursions. Had -5C early yesterday morning at my home but by this evening mild south-westerlies have returned and it's back up to 6C with a little rain. Short sharp Arctic snap (with snow-showers possible in Scotland and the North) looking likely to occur later next week, sharp frost at night as skies clear, then another bout of mild wet and wind following. I do not expect any major trend towards really severe cold and snow, especially now that the latest December figures for QBO high over the Equator, averaged at 30 mb and 50 mb were 15 m/s and 9 m/s respectively (both from the West). North-east Canada and Greenland are now very cold whilst sea-surface temperatures in the far North Atlantic are still warmer than usual.

If anything these indications point to February-March being particularly stormy across the North, the cold-patch south of Iceland ensuring any west or NW winds following depressions will be cold enough to bring snow to the northern half of Britain: Even so the prevailing winds will be westerlies which will push milder air into mainland Europe and remove snow-cover (so that central and eastern Europe absorb heat from the Sun and warm up) so that the South will have little risk from late cold snaps from the east heading towards Spring. I expect a couple of cold dry spells across the country in February- on the basis that the anomalous warmth over the Arctic interior combined with snow-cover over Eurasia will keep the Circumpolar Vortex weaker than normal into February (as per my forecast). Nonetheless I would assert -on the Westerly strength of the QBO (which will feed into the general circulation of the Northern Hemisphere by late February) and the strong baroclinic gradient between Greenland/NE Canada and the northern North Atlantic likely by then that late February daffodils are an increasingly distinct possibility for anyone living south of Birmingham!

It is also looking increasingly like we will have, for the first time in a few years, some proper March gales- even in the South.  

Another winter bites the dust, when will this snow less pattern break, I wonder?

[iapennell]

On 1/4/2017 at 23:59, Peter H said:

Easter 1975 was in April and it was a snowy one, although the snow didn't really settle.

We had a fantastic summer that year.

The winter of 1974/75 was exceptionally mild.

 

If you check the records I think you will find that Easter Day in 1975 fell on the 30th March. March 1975 was unusually cold with frequent frosts and snowfalls- early Easters tend to be colder but that year it fell at the close of a particularly cold March (which, as it turned out, was the coldest month of the 1974-75 (extended) winter)!

[iapennell]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Another winter bites the dust, when will this snow less pattern break, I wonder?

@lassie23; I would not say the winter is a complete write-off like last winter. The Midlands and South of England have had some lovely frosty dry spells, with freezing-fog to bring lovely rime-covered landscapes at times. Granted, the South has had only sporadic snowfalls to date.

If I were to put a date on it I would go for Winter 2018/19 (or Winter 2019/20 if the earlier winter was affected by Westerlies high over the Equator in Autumn 2018 disrupting the pattern). That is when the current Sunspot Cycle nears its (very quiet) end. At least one of these two winters will have a combination of very quiet Sun and strongly easterly winds high over the Equator in the months leading up to it; both these factors would work together to ensure weaker Westerlies over Britain and a quiet and slightly cooler Sun will help the Arctic ice recover (as happened from 2006 through late 2008) which would increase it's potency as a source region for very frigid air. Alas, that is not necessarily a guarantee of an especially severe winter, but it certainly increases the scope for a few direct hits from the Arctic interior or northern Russia reaching Britain and lasting several days in one of those winters!

[lassie23]

14 minutes ago, iapennell said:

@lassie23; I would not say the winter is a complete write-off like last winter. The Midlands and South of England have had some lovely frosty dry spells, with freezing-fog to bring lovely rime-covered landscapes at times. Granted, the South has had only sporadic snowfalls to date.

If I were to put a date on it I would go for Winter 2018/19 (or Winter 2019/20 if the earlier winter was affected by Westerlies high over the Equator in Autumn 2018 disrupting the pattern). That is when the current Sunspot Cycle nears its (very quiet) end. At least one of these two winters will have a combination of very quiet Sun and strongly easterly winds high over the Equator in the months leading up to it; both these factors would work together to ensure weaker Westerlies over Britain and a quiet and slightly cooler Sun will help the Arctic ice recover (as happened from 2006 through late 2008) which would increase it's potency as a source region for very frigid air. Alas, that is not necessarily a guarantee of an especially severe winter, but it certainly increases the scope for a few direct hits from the Arctic interior or northern Russia reaching Britain and lasting several days in one of those winters!

That's good to hear as many  think that snow and intense cold are history in the UK.

[Peter H]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

If you check the records I think you will find that Easter Day in 1975 fell on the 30th March. March 1975 was unusually cold with frequent frosts and snowfalls- early Easters tend to be colder but that year it fell at the close of a particularly cold March (which, as it turned out, was the coldest month of the 1974-75 (extended) winter)!

Yes, but Easter week was the first week in April that year, and I clearly remember driving to in heavy snow which didn't lie.

Don't remember anything about th previous March being cold, but the preceding winter was exceptionally mild and snowless, a rarity back in those days.

We had a fantastic summer that year with a persistent high pressure over Scotland. It's odd. because no one here mentions it, but it was a better summer than 1976.