Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Summer Sun]

A cold start to next week

Milder mid week

Later next week

Conflicting signals

Models Struggling

Cold probably returns with a renewed chance of frost and some snow

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38454608

Edited December 28, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A cold start to next week

Milder mid week

Later next week

Conflicting signals

Models Struggling

Cold probably returns with a renewed chance of frost and some snow

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38454608

Come on models, sort it out!  However, at least the interest continues for now.....

Edited December 28, 2016 by Don

[damianslaw]

Late December is often a pivotal point, its when winter really gets going and the northern hemisphere settles into its mid winter base state, one that often hangs on through January and well into February (by mid Feb we start to see a change, as the jetstream and PV begin to ease in strength and thus influence, and northerlies and easterlies have a far easier time of influencing things). It is thus interesting to note, unlike the past 6 same periods and I include late 2010 but excepting 2013, we have quite a different base state, yes the PV is quite strong just like in all those years, but it is stretched, and we have little forcing from other factors namely ENSO, the outlook for the rest of winter is perhaps far less certain than many a recent year, the atlantic is in a slumber, and has been since August, and shows no signs of firing into gear anytime soon - when traditionally it is now on turbo full charge. We've had a generally blocked scenario for 4 months now, anticylonic conditions could thus be the form horse for the rest of the winter, with an ineffectual meandering jetstream, and every chance we may end up more on the colder side of it than at many stages in the last Jan-Feb periods (2013 excepted).

[Summer Sun]

A level 3 cold weather alert is in force for all regions in England except, London, Southwest, and North East these 3 regions are on a level 2 alert

Quote

 

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 09:04 on Tue 27 Dec 2016

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather between 1500 on Tuesday 27 Dec and 1100 on Friday 30 Dec in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

High pressure will build across England, leading to light winds, widespread overnight frost, and the risk of persistent fog development. Where fog does form and is slow to clear during the day, this will suppress daytime maximum temperatures. Consequently mean temperatures are likely to remain below 2C in many places. Less cold conditions seem likely across the far north of England (Cumbria/Northumberland), Devon and Cornwall, and immediate southern coastal districts.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[Summer Sun]

Edited December 29, 2016 by Summer Sun

[V for Very Cold]

Good morning everyone.... I have yet again woken from the cryogenic chamber to embrace another rollercoaster of emotions over the next 3 months. Wishing you all a great new year after a cracking Christmas and buckle up! It's going to be a great ride! 

V 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Now if that chart was for Friday 30th December, I would be excited!  

[Hotspur62]

Well after the GFS 6z this morning and as the GFS 12z rolls out it certainly looks like January will trend colder.How cold is open to debate and i would love to see the 6z be right but as others have said i think it is personally a bit extreme.  would be more than happy with -6/-8 uppers with a few inchs of snow down here as we havent seen a decent fall of snow here since Jan 2013!!The one good thing is even down here we have now had 9 decent frosts since about 20th November and certainly there look to be a few more on the way in the next 10-14 days even if we miss out on the snow. Lovely weather to walk the dog or even have a game of golf like i did yesterday once the frost had melted.All in all i have quite enjoyed the winter so far so much more than the last 3 but must admit it would be nice to enjoy a cold snowy spell like the 6z GFS pulled out this morning....Now that would be sprecial

[Weather-history]

It looks like a pretty dry December overall especially for England and Wales. The dry trend looks like continuing into the start of January.

[Summer Sun]

Later next week

Turning colder

Windy (North or North Westerly)

Wintry Showers mainly in the north

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38464513

[Summer Sun]

Next weekend

Feeling cold

Windy (north or north easterly winds)

Wintry showers

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38470627

[hillbilly]

On ‎28‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 22:27, damianslaw said:

Late December is often a pivotal point, its when winter really gets going and the northern hemisphere settles into its mid winter base state, one that often hangs on through January and well into February (by mid Feb we start to see a change, as the jetstream and PV begin to ease in strength and thus influence, and northerlies and easterlies have a far easier time of influencing things). It is thus interesting to note, unlike the past 6 same periods and I include late 2010 but excepting 2013, we have quite a different base state, yes the PV is quite strong just like in all those years, but it is stretched, and we have little forcing from other factors namely ENSO, the outlook for the rest of winter is perhaps far less certain than many a recent year, the atlantic is in a slumber, and has been since August, and shows no signs of firing into gear anytime soon - when traditionally it is now on turbo full charge. We've had a generally blocked scenario for 4 months now, anticylonic conditions could thus be the form horse for the rest of the winter, with an ineffectual meandering jetstream, and every chance we may end up more on the colder side of it than at many stages in the last Jan-Feb periods (2013 excepted).

It seems strange to me while we are experiencing such a long spell of blocked /non Atlantic weather that we have not seen for many years that it is not reflected in the wintery weather we are getting.Although we saw a couple of coatings of snow here in November it is rare to see snow now before Christmas where up to the late 90s it was relatively rare not to get snow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Feel they'll backtrack on the NE'ly in tomorrows update, instead saying high pressure risk of frost and fog

[Hotspur62]

Not sure how out of date it is but on News24 they still mention NE winds next weekend. TBH after the front clears on Sunday it looks a pattern reset for pretty much what we have had for the last month on the whole.Temps will be from 3-8 degrees for UK  next week with some frost about and some nice sunny days.I do hope that the pattern change that has been indicated from around 10th January does occur.As today has proved and SM advised us this morning NEVER doubt the UKMO .Even when GFS & ECM are firmly against it in the 120-144 range it stands firm and looks to have been proved correct(unfortunately from a coldies pov).Still think that we will have quite a potent cold spell in the form of an Icelandic/Scandi High.Big positives for me is from 6th-8th Jan the AO goes strongly negative,NAO will be going mildly negative,minimal Solar activity,very quiet Atlantic which always helps and it looks like heights will finally lower in the Med.Having learnt from the experts over the last 6 years from the MOD Forum and just from studying weather maps for last 30 years i think the GFS in particular has been too quick to get the cold in.The factors i have just mentioned above are falling into place but there is a time lag which i think could bring some pretty cold temps for the UK with the threat of snow but as always forecasting snow is the real tricky part. Overall though the NH is in a so much better position compared to the last 2/3 winters and although we do have to rely on Lady luck to a degree i am still pretty optimistic.

[Hotspur62]

Looks like a cold weekend next weekend if GFS 18z to be believed although just a 2 day toppler even if it verifies.

 

[Weather-history]

On 29 December 2016 at 19:34, Weather-history said:

It looks like a pretty dry December overall especially for England and Wales. The dry trend looks like continuing into the start of January.

December could be the driest month of the year for England and Wales. The last time that happened was in 1963.

[cheese]

23.9mm for the month, slightly drier than July. So yes, our driest month of the year.

6 days with rain >1mm.

I think December 2010 was the driest month of the year here as well. We had under 20mm then. 2010 was a dry year in general but I don't think any other month was drier. Mostly 30-40mm.

Edited December 31, 2016 by cheese

[THEICEPRINCE]

i'm off too the ukraine on wednesday for 2 weeks visiting a friend and by what iv'e seen on the latest GFS i could be in for a cold snowy time and too be honest i really hope so because here in Bristol i dont get to see too much of the white stuff but by the looks of it there could be some here in the u.k also has the high pressure moves further and further west bringing the colder air with it so fingers crossed for everyone  .

[Summer Sun]

Next weekend

Northwesterly winds

Some wintry showers

Extent of cold and showers open to a little uncertainty at the moment

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38479000

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Next weekend

Northwesterly winds

Some wintry showers

Extent of cold and showers open to a little uncertainty at the moment

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38479000

Further runs needed...we'll see tomorrow.......will it, wont it ?

[Summer Sun]

Early next week (WC 9th)

Cloudy
Less Chilly
Driest in the south

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38484337

[MP-R]

I was surprised to see the Beeb even entering into w/c 09th when this coming week is far from nailed. Brave call saying either way just at the moment.

[Weather-history]

On 31 December 2016 at 07:12, Weather-history said:

December could be the driest month of the year for England and Wales. The last time that happened was in 1963.

Looks that way now. Most of the UK looks like they have had a drier than average December. Drier the further south you go.

Also be interesting just how anticyclonic it has been. Sadly Philip Eden' on his climate uk site would have given us a clue but it hasn't been updated since November 2013.

The three most anticyclonic Decembers based on Philip Eden's figures are 1879, 1926 and 2001

The anticyclonicity is continuing into the first part of January as well. Looks a dry first half to winter 2016-17.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Weather-history

[Nouska]

Once again the the NCAR CESM was the best of a poor performance by the N.American long rangers. EUROSIP poor too, in there under the banner of IMME. Unfortunately, all were right for the UK in seeing varying degrees of positive temp anomaly.

December 2016 surface temperature reanalysis.

  DEC CESM forecast 

The model suite forecast for December 2016.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2016110800/current/tmp2m_Lead1.html

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Mostly dry
Less chilly
Fog possible

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38491529?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central