Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Summer Sun]

Some city lows a short time ago

13c London

12c Cardiff

11c Belfast

9c Aberdeen

Welcome to December in the UK

[damianslaw]

Agree the current weather is hard to get enthusiastic about, drab dull days with drizzle and cloud, not very cheerful. Hopefully by the weekend we will see some brighter chillier conditions. December can be a very drab dire month overall - always rate Jan and Feb as months more guaranteed to bring wintry weather than December, even March. The synoptics are certainly blocked, day after day of the same kind, getting a bit irritating seeing this now.

[sundog]

Decembers recently have been terrible,from the mid 90s -2010 of course they werent often too bad with a reasonable amount of chilly days overall. The xmas periods in particular were often better for cold or at least a better chance of it overall then say the decembers of the 80s. It just seems so strange that since the epic Dec 2010 that decembers have become very poor for cold. Its almost as if dec 2010 used up our qouta of december cold for the following few yrs.

[cheese]

11 hours ago, Nick L said:

Far from cold here, been able to go out in a t-shirt some mornings. As reef says, this weather is the pits. I understand why some people don't like cold weather, but is this really better than cold, sunny and frosty? This is the sort of guff that must hit SAD sufferers hard.

Mild weather in winter doesn't bother me, but rain and excessive cloudiness does. Very annoying. 

February 2008 is a good example of a mild month that was very sunny and dry, but I suspect getting something like that in December is very hard because the Atlantic is at its most active this time of year.

Roll on February!

[cheese]

Today is much more like it.. 10C with sunshine and no wind. 

[Nick L]

Yes a lovely day today. Would prefer it colder but it's far better than the dross of the last couple of days.

[Peter H]

I don't know why some weather forecasters say "at least it's mild".

I absolutely detest this weather in winter. Today is simply depressing here. Mild, wet, cloudy, and very dull. We've had this sort of weather pretty constantly for several weeks now.

To be honest, I've pretty much given up hope on this winter delivering any other than this right through until the end of February.

The GFS models now go up until the end of December and they're dire. Some long rage forecasts to 11th January, almost the halfway stage of the winter and they're not much better. Not a hint of anything remotely wintery.

Roll on summer, which I hope is better than last year.

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by Peter H

[Summer Sun]

I guess with the sunshine and light winds in the south it feels almost early spring-like with temperatures in low double figures?

London City Airport is showing 14c as today's high not bad for mid-December

[Weather-history]

A nice day with a nice moonset and moonrise.

 

[Summer Sun]

Run up to Christmas

Mostly dry
Variable Cloud
Rain in Northwest
Overnight fog

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38323688

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Run up to Christmas

Mostly dry
Variable Cloud
Rain in Northwest
Overnight fog

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38323688

seen your post in whiners thread, will settle for that SS, but as you said not showing on models, models seem to suggest wet/windy everywhere, ruling out fog/mostly dry

Edited December 14, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Summer Sun]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seen your post in whiners thread, will settle for that SS, but as you said not showing on models, models seem to suggest wet/windy everywhere ruling out fog/mostly dry

Seems like they are expecting the high to stay a bit closer by

Plenty of runs needed yet it would appear

Either way, it looks mild

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, Peter H said:

I don't know why some weather forecasters say "at least it's mild".

I absolutely detest this weather in winter. Today is simply depressing here. Mild, wet, cloudy, and very dull. We've had this sort of weather pretty constantly for several weeks now.

To be honest, I've pretty much given up hope on this winter delivering any other than this right through until the end of February.

The GFS models now go up until the end of December and they're dire. Some long rage forecasts to 11th January, almost the halfway stage of the winter and they're not much better. Not a hint of anything remotely wintery.

Roll on summer, which I hope is better than last year.

 

 

 

Oh dear its going to be a long winter for you, if you rely on charts some 4 weeks ahead verifying. I suggest best stick to the reliable i.e. 144 hrs, and always expect the unexpected, something I've learnt to do. We've been here so many times before at this stage in December, indeed the last 5 Decembers, with the charts all showing atlantic dominated weather holding sway with no break out. Take last year, we did finally see a shortlived cold spell around the 15-18 Jan which delivered some snow, after a remarkably mild wet 8 weeks. 2015 saw a generally colder more wintry spell later in Jan through to mid Feb. Jan 2013 became snowy and cold mid month after a very mild 4 week wet spell beforehand. 2012 produced a shortlived frosty  cold period around 12-15 Jan after again about 3 weeks of mild/wet weather.

What I'm saying is, there is a heck of alot of winter to go yet, and I'll be very surprised to have to wait until the end of Feb for anything wintry. 2013/2014 mind was one winter completely devoid of any snow or cold weather -but it was a highly abnormal winter that one.

I agree since Dec 2010, our Decembers have been poor for snow and cold weather, especially further south, though first half of 2012 was cold and frosty, and 2011 brought a fair bit of snow and cold weather to higher ground in the north, more so Scotland before once again going downhill in the run up to christmas. The Decembers of the 90's and 00's did bring much more varied fayre though, especially around christmas, with a bit of snow and cold at some stage in most years from the 20-31 Dec, 1997 only exception, even 2006 and 2007 brought some 'faux cold' in the immediate run up to christmas. 

I always say winter doesn't gets its act together properly until the New Year, and the weather of the first half of Dec has little bearing for the rest of the winter, though signs and signals of how it may ulitmately pan out usually display themselves by christmas, where is the PV, how strong is it, what is the strat doing, but its still a long way until March..

The best cold snowy spells are those that suddenly appear out of nowhere, and they can do even when it looks like a zonal mild spell can't be shifted.

[Summer Sun]

NE Scotland could be the warmest place in the UK on Sunday with highs of 15 or 16c possible

Edited December 15, 2016 by Summer Sun

[jvenge]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

NE Scotland could be the warmest place in the UK on Sunday with highs of 15 or 16c possible

What do they class as north east?

 

[Summer Sun]

12 minutes ago, jvenge said:

What do they class as north east?

 

 

Moray Coast was mentioned

[jvenge]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Moray Coast was mentioned

It's hard to imagine. Maybe up to 12, but 15 doesn't seem to be in any model output.

[Ravelin]

13 minutes ago, jvenge said:

It's hard to imagine. Maybe up to 12, but 15 doesn't seem to be in any model output.

Seems rather high. I'm in NE and for here Met Sunday high is forecast 8/9C. Even Lossiemouth, which is on the Moray coast is only forecast for 11C. There is a SW wind forecast, which will help with a Fohn effect, but it isn't exactly forecast to be strong.

[Summer Sun]

Christmas weekend

Wind and rain more likely

Dry and settled less likely

Snow an outside bet

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38336394

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather long range forecast

Wind and Rain still favored

Frost and sunshine less likely

Snow remains and outside bet

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38346800

[Norrona2015]

33 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC weather long range forecast

Wind and Rain still favored

Frost and sunshine less likely

Snow remains and outside bet

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38346800

Met forecasting colder conditions for my location from Monday onwards. Meteogroup forecasting wintry conditions Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 

[Weather-history]

Looks like the driest first half to December for England and Wales for 25 years.

[Smiler1709]

Wore a t shirt all day yesterday, very much like last December except with little rain. Looking ahead and things look bleak for the rest of December. Hopefully Jan will give us coldies hope 

[Terminal Moraine]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Looks like the driest first half to December for England and Wales for 25 years.

A lot of places must have been really dry for that statistic. It's been the driest first half only since 2013 here and 2010, 2004 and 2001 all had drier first halves.

[Don]

I don't write off winter until the end of January, but I have to say I have a bad feeling that the writing is on the wall for this winter now.