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Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17


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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
1 hour ago, Gustywind said:

Luck would suggest it's purely random and down to chance that we're not experiencing cold currently and N America is.

I believe the increasingly zonal winters are down to loss of arctic sea ice and an increasingly strong polar vortex -  root cause global warming. Unfortunately the above symptoms lead to a stronger jet meaning milder, wetter and stormier winters for ourselves. By contrast the US may actually benefit from the stronger polar vortex in terms of colder and snowier winters.

Cold outbreaks in North America, aren't they due to the displacement of the polar vortex? Strong zonal winters mean less chance of cold expanding further south from the north across the North American continent. You read American commentators warning that a stronger polar vortex means less cold outbreaks further south even for them. Because there is no ocean modification, any cold outbreaks that do make, will be very cold.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Excellent charts on expertweatheronline showing overall average patterns of months of the last 30 years or so.

January and February 1990: No wonder they were so stormy, look how strong the zonality is here.

1990010100.png1990020100.png

Cold zonality: January 1984 and March 1995:

1984010100.png1995030100.png

Very blocked months: February 1986 and December 2010

1986020100.png2010120100.png

Very mild months: February 1998, December 2015: charts explains why February 1998 was dry in the south and December 2015 was so much wetter

1998020100.png2015120100.png

How far south the jetstream was during March 2013, running through North Africa

2013030100.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

That Feb 96 chart is sooooo close to some of the GFS charts that have been turning up in its last couple of runs, just need the Euro high to migrate slighly further Northwest, 2 or 3 hundred miles lets say for starters and game on, ohhh and ECM to come on board on its 12z:santa-emoji:...The cold air if it does make it is coming up from Italy and the Med, would make a change from the usual imports of Panetone and Parma Ham just in time for Christmas!:D

1986020100.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-1-192-1.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
On 01/11/2016 at 15:57, Summer Sun said:

John Hammond is live discussing the 3 month contingency planners forecast from the met office

 

 

angrybaby-7.jpg

Edited by I Cumbria Marra I
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Just looking through Levi Cowan's site at his analogues based on the November pattern - some nice winters in there for cold lovers and does validate some of the MO comment about seeing shades of '62.

analogs_monthly_z500.png

A lost opportunity or a sign of what may still be?

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
47 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC weather for the week ahead

CzaZqC_XcAEWNg0.jpg

New Model Winter...:diablo:

In all seriousness, at present, I' prepared to accept that we're in a period of mild winters - these have, of course, happened many times in the past.  That being said, if next winter features an easterly QBO and low solar activity (with other factors being OK for cold) and still gives us a Euro high/Bartlett set-up, I'm going to seriously hypothesise that climate change (irrespective of who or what causes it) is having a fundamental and profound effect on our winters.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Check out then snow in Buffalo right now on Sky Sports. Winter wonderland.

What channel? Cant find it :(

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Parts of the USA are certainly going into the freezer during the coming week and beyond even by Chicago's standards this is brutal

2354353.png

The average December low is -5c and the average high is +2c

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

This weather really is the absolute pits. The first 13 days of December have had just 18 hours of sunshine here and most of that was on two days.

Every single day seems the same at the moment, it doesn't even get properly light with all this cloud!

Roll on something other than this mild, dull dross.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Far from cold here, been able to go out in a t-shirt some mornings. As reef says, this weather is the pits. I understand why some people don't like cold weather, but is this really better than cold, sunny and frosty? This is the sort of guff that must hit SAD sufferers hard.

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Just now, Nick L said:

Far from cold here, been able to go out in a t-shirt some mornings. As reef says, this weather is the pits. I understand why some people don't like cold weather, but is this really better than cold, sunny and frosty? This is the sort of guff that must hit SAD sufferers hard.

Winter has been OKAY here. October and November were cold months, so I generally feel robbed of Autumn, but oh well. After a 4 day period of mildish temperatures (day time high of 10 degrees), it didn't manage to get above -3 today. In general, the model output doesn't seem too interested in anything mild for the next 10 days.

That said, no snow around and it is very dry. With the humidity level and wind, even when it is -6 on the mornings, it feels quite brutal.

My hope is for "seasonal" weather, which is around a day time max of 0 and a night time min of -6. Not interested in the -7 nonsense during the day, but I suppose it will happen at some point in the next month, if not the next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well us 'Sad-ohs' are celebrating the earliest sunset of the year! nights will be getting lighter from here on in with a full two minutes later by solstice due to our orbital eccentricity and use of a 24hr day! ( nights are still getting longer but it's one corner turned!!!)

The Arctic impacts on the weather must surely be abating as more and more of the north Freezes ( including Hudson) so taking the Siberian cold anom out of the P.V. equation? The current 'cold plunge' across central/eastern U.S. might be something to worry about if our Atlantic blocking also relaxes? We do not need the kind of rainfall we saw back last Boxing day morning!!!! I'm all for blocking off such high rainfall events but they bring longer term issues if the serve to slow the freeze of Barentsz to our north?

Then comes 'Spring' and if we see another messy Arctic, come winters end, we may well find April/May again plagued by cold plunges/air masses? 

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

This weather doesnt do much for ones interest in the weather. Just dire,dull,mild rubbish. Reminds me of last dec only not as mild . The last Ten days here with the odd brighter day thrown in have just been a  load of cack. It was bright earlier today for a while but of course the cloud has returned.

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
6 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Well us 'Sad-ohs' are celebrating the earliest sunset of the year! nights will be getting lighter from here on in with a full two minutes later by solstice due to our orbital eccentricity and use of a 24hr day! ( nights are still getting longer but it's one corner turned!!!)

The Arctic impacts on the weather must surely be abating as more and more of the north Freezes ( including Hudson) so taking the Siberian cold anom out of the P.V. equation? The current 'cold plunge' across central/eastern U.S. might be something to worry about if our Atlantic blocking also relaxes? We do not need the kind of rainfall we saw back last Boxing day morning!!!! I'm all for blocking off such high rainfall events but they bring longer term issues if the serve to slow the freeze of Barentsz to our north?

Then comes 'Spring' and if we see another messy Arctic, come winters end, we may well find April/May again plagued by cold plunges/air masses? 

Yes, I think the window of opportunity has passed to take advantage of low ice cover and high Siberian snow fall.

No idea what is going to happen beyond the last week of the month, though.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
9 minutes ago, sundog said:

This weather doesnt do much for ones interest in the weather. Just dire,dull,mild rubbish. Reminds me of last dec only not as mild . The last Ten days here with the odd brighter day thrown in have just been a  load of cack. It was bright earlier today for a while but of course the cloud has returned.

Indeed, I haven't watched a local or national weather forecast for a couple of weeks as it would be the same endless boredom. I'm actually looking forward to some heavy rain tomorrow! At least it's something different than endless nothingness.

If zonality does take over at least we get a decent Winter storm to get our teeth into.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm also thinking that the end of this month will show us what direction we should expect the rest of the winter to take?

With the strat looking to be sorting itself out we could see low solar being our major forcing and that could bring us deep cold?

Just what that would mean if we saw precipitation totals like last Christmas did here in the Calder Valley last year  I do not know!!!

It would equate to over 2 feet in 18 hrs!!! That would be something to witness!!!

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