Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[I remember Atlantic 252]

sounds great SS, but I would still 'guess' milder and wetter than average with risk of a few named storms

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Don't give up hope SteveB. Resigning to the belief we'll only get SWerlies is very simplistic, our monthly averages suggest otherwise. Yes, our weather will most likely come from the Atlantic at least from mid October to early January but that opens a whole lot of options. I'd personally prefer the complications earlier on in the winter with a proper onslaught from Christmas onwards.

I've not given up by any means, I'm just saying to get the brutal cold we so long for is extremely hard when your default setting is the Westerlies.

I'm happy with settled weather under a cold high which looks like we should see in the next few day's, it just what happens after that is the form horse, a spell of Westerlies again- not the Easterlies and associated cold with snow.

[MP-R]

9 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I've not given up by any means, I'm just saying to get the brutal cold we so long for is extremely hard when your default setting is the Westerlies.

I'm happy with settled weather under a cold high which looks like we should see in the next few day's, it just what happens after that is the form horse, a spell of Westerlies again- not the Easterlies and associated cold with snow.

Absolutely. I think we'll be lucky to get brutal easterlies so early in the season, but the chance becomes greater as the season goes on. Meanwhile, just a hunch, but I think any spell of westerlies we get in the current state of affairs will be associated with the PV moving across to Siberia, so shortlived and with polar conditions following behind, hopefully developing into something polar continental.

[Seasonality]

47 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I've not given up by any means, I'm just saying to get the brutal cold we so long for is extremely hard when your default setting is the Westerlies.

I'm happy with settled weather under a cold high which looks like we should see in the next few day's, it just what happens after that is the form horse, a spell of Westerlies again- not the Easterlies and associated cold with snow.

Out of interest, what conditions are you hoping for? What do you and other members look for in terms of 'brutal cold' for the UK? I think it needs to be more a case of managing expectations. In Britain's oceanic climate, chilly spells with wintry precipitation can be classed as a win. But brutal cold in terms of what is experienced in North America and further east on the European continent is an incredibly rare thing for the little islands on the western edge of the European continent. And as other posters have said, it is a bit early to expect a cold easterly in the UK.

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Out of interest, what conditions are you hoping for? What do you and other members look for in terms of 'brutal cold' for the UK? I think it needs to be more a case of managing expectations. In Britain's oceanic climate, chilly spells with wintry precipitation can be classed as a win. But brutal cold in terms of what is experienced in North America and further east on the European continent is an incredibly rare thing for the little islands on the western edge of the European continent. And as other posters have said, it is a bit early to expect a cold easterly in the UK.

I think you would need to see Winter months with at least one month coming in 1-2c or more colder than the average to get nationwide snow. I remember when we used to get stalling fronts hitting the cold block dumping large amounts of snow on the South west, and then for it to stick around for a week or more before thawing. That just doesn't happen these day's, sure people get snow, but to get nationwide snow you need that proper cold weather, -8-10+ 850's locking in for more than a day or 2 & then to get the disturbances in the flow or the lows bumping into the cold to get the snow we winter lovers all crave for.

I would like to point out, I'm not  chucking my toys out the pram because of what the charts are showing, just merely making an observation on why things have developed as they have. 

Edited November 22, 2016 by SteveB

[irishlad69]

I really do wish people would stop going on about models, they are useless after 3 days, even that's at a push, models only go where the data that's put into them make them go.

 

As for easterlies, no one had a clue that easterlies where coming in 2009/2010 until a few days before hand, so anything can happen

 

Personally i will take it day by day, these so called forecasters like Madden, Bastardi, Vogan, they know no more than what we all do and that's why they never get it right, and if they do its a fluke, guess work at best.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

agree Steve, it's called TMW, as snow is getting less common as years go on, snow is a novelty nowadays, imagine if our weather was always cold, think snow would be as boring as rain, say if we were like Yellowknife! think I'd rather be in the UK

[Seasonal Trim]

18 hours ago, Nizzer said:

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the excitement in the MOD thread at the moment is going to wane and wane over the next 7 to 10 days until they realize the models have led them up the garden path again. 

It seems it didn't take 7 to 10 days after all! 

[SteveB]

Still live in hope a decent cold spell this Winter, but I think the beginning of December cold snap is waning with each set of model runs 

[stewfox]

5 hours ago, SteveB said:

Still live in hope a decent cold spell this Winter, but I think the beginning of December cold snap is waning with each set of model runs 

Yes back to T240 charts again.

I want BOOM BOOM T24.

[Summer Sun]

December outlook

Unsettled start

Trending colder and drier than average

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38072856?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

[Summer Sun]

Early December

Huge uncertainty

No clear consensus

Storms unlikely

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38100000?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

[I remember Atlantic 252]

hope 4th thing right SS

[Jordan S]

my thoughts is that we will have a northerly flow bringing freezing cold air from the arctic bringing widespread snow at times for early December but then a transition to more stormy conditions and milder for a time mid-month before colder wintry weather returns for the end of December coinciding with the Christmas period. i think January will start of wintry with northerly winds blowing more frequently than normal and a fairly blocked pattern to the north of us then for the middle of January through to the end of February i think we will see a generally zonal pattern with some stormy weather but with the jet stream further south than a normal zonal pattern should be then storms will probably be affecting more southern parts of UK and France. with cold northerly wakes in between systems so zonal but with wintry weather behind storms. this is just my own opinion based on some model outputs

[Summer Sun]

[Summer Sun]

Early December

Milder spell most likely

Not much rain

Cold returning eventually

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38112506

[Hotspur62]

Looking forward to next week or so.looks dry and hopefully be some nice late autumn sunshine and some frost.Thereafter,still doubt on what will happen but looks like we may have a few milder days and then hopefully cold will make a comeback again. Got to say Mod Thread gone a bit negative in last 24-36 hours as the search for cold and snow which showed up early in the week by GFS has vanished with ECM showing the way atm. Whilst this is understandable I am still quite optimistic for mid December as the NH pattern is overall in so much better position than the last couple of winters.On top of that the Met Office and other experts seem quietly confident that the UK could be on the cusp of a cold spell.

Everyone needs to chill out( no pun intended) and let the weather do its stuff. 

 

[Ravelin]

10 hours ago, Hotspur61 said:

as the search for cold and snow which showed up early in the week by GFS has vanished with ECM showing the way atm.

Ehm, it's back this morning, and it's the ECM that's thrown it up this time at day 6/7. 

[Norrance]

Looking like a UK high being the form horse as we go through December. Mostly dry then and cool but by that stage of Winter a waste of possible snow time if it hangs around. Even worse if it sinks South or takes up residence in Europe when it goes.

[Summer Sun]

[Hotspur62]

3 hours ago, Ravelin said:

Ehm, it's back this morning, and it's the ECM that's thrown it up this time at day 6/7. 

It just goes to show how difficult the Models are understanding the NH profile atm. If it becomes a trend on ECM then cold may come slightly quicker but i still believe that we will have a quieter spell of 7-10 days of fog and frost which will get the ground colder and help the snow settle better when it comes!!You simply cant rule anything out atm and it makes the Model watching all the more fascinating. Fwiw still think a Scandi High is possible by end of second week of November but be it a Scandi High/Greeny High i am not too bothered as long as we get our snow fix which 99% of people desire on these forums . Think we have waited PATIENTLY long enough for it in the UK( 3 years for people Midlands Southwards !!)

[cheshire snow]

@Hotspur61

Think you mean 2nd week of December and not November LOL

C.S

[Summer Sun]

End of next week and into the weekend temperatures widely into double figures colder weather to return eventually

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38117078

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, was about to post that SS, GFS not going for double figure temps

[Hotspur62]

4 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

@Hotspur61

Think you mean 2nd week of December and not November LOL

C.S

Good spot .Just making sure everyone was awake lol!!